Tswv yim: Tsib qhov kev xav tau qhia peb tias nws yog lub sijhawm los yuav cov khoom lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ib pab pawg

Tab sis ua li cas koj thiaj paub tiag thaum "txhua tus neeg quaj"? Koj tig mus rau qhov ntsuas kev xav, uas ntsuas qhov kev poob siab - thiab kua muag - quantitatively. Ntawm no yog ib qho kev sib tw ntawm tsib ntawm kev ntsuas kev xav uas taw tes rau qhov tsis zoo siab, thiab ib qho kev ntsuas rau kev ntsuas zoo.

Hauv "kev noj mov rau lub neej" tus ntsuj plig, kuv demystify cov ntsuas no thiab piav qhia txoj hauv kev yooj yim los txhais lawv, yog li koj tuaj yeem sab laj rau lawv tas li ntawm koj lub neej kev nqis peev. Qhov no yuav tsis yog lub lag luam dais kawg uas koj yuav nyob.

1. Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio

Yog tias koj ua raws li qhov taw qhia kev xav, ua qhov no. Qhov ntsuas no yog ua raws li kev soj ntsuam ntawm ntau tshaj li ib puas lub khw muag ntawv xov xwm sau ntawv. Keeb kwm, thaum qhov piv ntawm bulls rau bears tsawg dua ib qho, qhov ntawd yog qhov kev xav tsis zoo, uas qhia peb lub khw yog kev yuav. Daim duab hauv qab no, los ntawm Yardeni Kev Tshawb Fawb, qhia txog keeb kwm kev xav. Kev nyeem ntawv thaum Lub Kaum Hli 4 tau sawv ntawm 0.61, qhov qis qis uas qhia tau tias muaj kev xav tsis zoo. Qhov no yog ib tug bullish teeb liab nyob rau hauv lub contrarian kev nkag siab.

2. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) kev soj ntsuam kev xav

Qhov ntsuas no yog ua raws li qhov kev xaiv tsa AAII txhua lub lim tiam ntawm nws cov tswv cuab, uas yog tus neeg ua lag luam. Cov khw muag khoom lag luam tuaj yeem yog cov neeg coob coob uas muaj npe nrov, yog li lawv muab cov kev xav zoo nyeem.

Koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm cov ntsiab lus no, hauv qab no, tias cov ntaub ntawv thaws ib puag ncig me ntsis. Thaum qhov no tshwm sim nrog cov ntaub ntawv, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tig mus rau qhov nruab nrab dov uas du tawm qhov sib txawv los ntawm kev suav nrog ntau cov ntaub ntawv sib law liag. Cov kws tshaj lij ntawm RBC Capital Markets qhia cov lus qhia nram qab no nrog AAII cov ntaub ntawv. Thaum feem pua ​​​​bulls rho tawm feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov bears poob qis dua -10 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus ntawm plaub lub lis piam nruab nrab, nws yog lub teeb liab yuav muaj zog. Lub dov plaub lub lis piam nruab nrab yog tam sim no -33.7, txoj kev dhau ntawm -10 txiav tawm.

Kuj tseem nco ntsoov tias ob qhov kev poob qis kawg nyeem nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli yog ze li ntawm 61%. Ua ntej cov ntawv nyeem no, dhau 35 xyoo dhau los qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov bears tau tshaj 60% tsuas yog plaub zaug. Ib xyoos cov khoom lag luam rov qab los tom qab plaub qhov xwm txheej yog +22.4%, +31.5%, +7.4%, +56.9%, sau tseg Jason Goepfert ntawm SentimentTrader.

Ib txoj hauv kev yooj yim dua los siv qhov ntsuas no yog xav txog qhov piv ntawm bulls rau tus naj npawb ntawm bulls plus bears. Raws li daim ntawv qhia, hauv qab no, los ntawm Yardeni qhia, nyeem ntawm 35 lossis qis dua yog qhov tsawg heev, uas qhia peb tias lawv yog qhov yuav khoom siab heev. Kev nyeem ntawv thaum Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj yog 30.4.

3. The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator

Bank of America taug qab tus bull & dais taw qhia rau cov neeg siv khoom. Nws ntsuas tej yam xws li hedge fund positioning, stock market width, fund flows into stocks and bonds, and positioning of long- only funds. Qhov no hits qhov tsis zoo siab thaum nws nyob ntawm xoom. Nws nyob ntawd thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj. Cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav tsis zoo ib yam li nws tau tshwm sim hauv Kev Lag Luam Nyiaj Txiag Loj thiab cov hnub thaum ntxov ntawm kev sib kis - ob qho tib si tau ua raws li cov khoom lag luam zoo heev.

4. Tus thawj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag txoj haujlwm

Bank of America ua cov kev tshawb fawb tsis tu ncua ntawm cov thawj tswj nyiaj txiag los ntsuas lawv txoj kev xav. Ib txoj hauv kev los ntsuas lawv txoj kev xav yog saib seb lawv tuav nyiaj npaum li cas. Tsiv mus rau nyiaj ntsuab yog ib qho kev ceeb toom uas qhia tias tus thawj tswj nyiaj xav tias cov khoom lag luam yuav poob. Keeb kwm, thaum cov nyiaj ntsuab nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas no yog nyob ntawm 5% los yog siab dua, lub lag luam Tshuag yog ib tug yuav. Cov nyiaj tau los tsis ntev los no ntawm 6.1%, ib qho khoom lag luam yuav khoom.

5. Kev ntsuas siab heev

Kev ntsuas ntsuas ntsuas kev xav, vim tias cov tub ua lag luam muag cov khoom lag luam thaum lawv poob qis.

Tus nqi-rau- khwv tau los ntawm Russell 2000
ROV,
-0.30%,
qhov ntsuas me me, tsis ntev los no tau poob mus rau 11. Qhov no zoo li huab cua vim tias qhov qis tshaj plaws nws tau muaj txij li xyoo 1990, thiab nws yog 30% qis dua nws qhov nruab nrab ntev txij li xyoo 1985, sau tseg Bank of America.

Mid-cap stocks zoo li pheej yig heev, tab sis tsis pheej yig li me-caps, piv rau lawv cov keeb kwm. Thiab cov khoom loj-cap tseem tseem kim tshaj plaws. P/E pem hauv ntej ntawm Russell 1000
RUI,
-0.30%,
qhov loj-cap Performance index, tsis ntev los no tau poob rau 15.5, uas yog kwv yees raws li nws qhov nruab nrab mus sij hawm ntev.

Tab sis nco ntsoov qhov sib txawv ntawm lub kaus mom me me thiab lub kaus mom loj. Tus txheeb ze rau pem hauv ntej P/E ntawm Russell 2000 (small-caps) vs. Russell 1000 (loj-caps) yog ntawm 0.71, zoo hauv qab nws cov keeb kwm nruab nrab ntawm 1.01. Nws yog nyob rau theem qis tshaj txij li cov npuas tech. Daim ntawv qhia no qhia koj txog keeb kwm kev xav.

Cov kev ntsuas ntsuas no yog qhov kev yuav khoom zoo. Judging los ntawm keeb kwm tiam sis, cov nqi txo nqi no implies ib 13% ib xyoos rov qab nyob rau hauv lub xyoo caum tom ntej rau lub Russell 2000 thiab ib tug 10% rau Russell 1000. Cov lus ntawm no yog hais tias nws them nyiaj rau despised me-cap stocks tam sim no vim hais tias lawv muaj ntau. pheej yig dua piv rau lawv keeb kwm. Ib txoj hauv kev yooj yim los ua qhov no yog mus yuav ib qho kev sib pauv me me (ETF) zoo li iShares Russell 2000 Kev Loj Hlob ETF
NWS,
-0.46%.

Ib qho kev ntsuas ntsuas

"Yog tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, nws yuav yog qhov kev cia siab tshaj plaws kev lag luam poob qis, uas txhais tau tias tej zaum nws yuav tsis tshwm sim," Ed Yardeni, ntawm Yardeni Research, hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv kev sib tham hnub Monday.

Nws tau hais txog qhov kev txhawj xeeb dav dav txog qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm Fed-vim kev poob nyiaj txiag uas koj tam sim no nyeem txog txhua hnub hauv xov xwm nyiaj txiag. Qhov no dav tes-wringing yog ib qho anecdotal kev xav nyeem. Anecdotal nyeem yog raws li kev soj ntsuam tsis raws cai, tsis yog cov ntaub ntawv nyuaj, tab sis lawv tseem tuaj yeem ua tau zoo heev.

Nrhiav cov cim qhia tsis tseeb hauv koj tus kheej lub neej. Piv txwv li, tej zaum koj yuav muaj ib tug phooj ywg lossis cov neeg hauv tsev neeg uas niaj hnub nug txog cov tswv yim hauv khw muag khoom, lossis qhia rau koj tias lawv tau muag txhua yam thiab mus rau nyiaj ntsuab tom khw hauv qab. Yog tsis yog, nrhiav tus neeg no hauv koj lub neej. Txawm hais tias koj qhia lawv tias lawv yog qhov ntsuas kev xav tsis zoo, nws yuav tsis npub lub teeb liab vim tias kev puas siab puas ntsws thiab tus cwj pwm zoo li nyuaj rau peb lub hlwb.

Thaum peb nyob ntawm lub ncauj lus, koj tuaj yeem yog koj tus kheej qhov kev xav zoo tshaj plaws. Taug qab koj xav li cas thiab coj tus cwj pwm ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg, yog li koj tuaj yeem pom cov cim ntawd dua yav tom ntej.

Raws li qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag, nco ntsoov tias kev ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog, kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tseem muaj zog (10% xyoo dhau ib xyoo kev loj hlob nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, raws li Bank of America cov neeg soj ntsuam), Atlanta Fed GDPNov kwv yees tso rau peb lub hlis twg kev loj hlob ntawm 3.9%, thiab cov credit kis tsis tau tawm ntawm txoj kev uas lawv ib txwm ua mus rau kev lag luam poob qis.

Yuav ua li cas kuv yuav yuam kev

1. Cov ntsuas kev xav tau muab qhov kev pom zoo mus sij hawm ntev txog thaum yuav cov khoom lag luam, tab sis lawv tsis muab qhov tseeb tseeb. Thaum lub sij hawm muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj, cov neeg lag luam txawj ntse Bull Bear piv tau qis dua ib qho (uas ua rau muaj teeb meem yuav khoom) rau ntau tshaj li ib xyoos ua ntej cov khoom lag luam tau rov qab mus rau qhov nce siab. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kev zam. Feem ntau nws cov kev mus ncig hauv qab ib qho dhau los ntawm lub hlis lossis tsawg dua.

2. Tsis yog txhua qhov kev xav ntawm kev xav yog qhov tsis zoo. Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index
VIX,
-0.18%
yuav tsum tau mus rau saum 35 kom nyem qhov kev xav tsis zoo uas tsis zoo, hauv kuv qhov kev xav. Nws tsuas yog ntaus 33.6 rau hnub Tuesday. Qhov ntawd yog nyob ze, tab sis qee tus kws tshaj lij suav nrog Bob Doll ntawm Crossmark Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam nyiam pom kev txav mus txog 40 rau lub teeb liab capitulation.

3. Phab ntsa Street "muag sab" cov kws tshaj lij ntawm cov tuam txhab peev nyiaj tsis tau hloov pauv tsis zoo, raws li Bank of America tau taug qab qhov ntsuas no. Cov tsev txhab nyiaj hais tias qhov ntsuas no tseem nyob nruab nrab, tab sis ze rau kev yuav dua li muag. Rau kuv, txawm li cas los xij, nws yuav nyob ze txaus. Keeb kwm, thaum lawv qhov muag-sab tus tswv yim taw qhia yog nyob rau theem tam sim no lossis qis dua, tom qab 12 lub hlis rov qab tau zoo 96% ntawm lub sijhawm thiab qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm ntawm 82% ntawm lub sijhawm, thiab qhov nruab nrab 12-hli rov qab yog 21% . 

Qhov ntawd zoo nkaus li ze rau qhov "yuav" teeb liab rau kuv.

Michael Brush yog tus sau xov xwm rau MarketWatch. Thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm, nws tsis muaj haujlwm nyob rau hauv ib qho kev nyab xeeb uas tau hais hauv kab ntawv no. Txhuam yog editor ntawm nws cov ntawv xov xwm Tshuag, Txhuam Txog ntawm Cov Khoom Loj. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @mbrushstocks.