Bearishness tau poob mus rau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg uas nws txhawb nqa kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv kev sib tw.
Kev xav yeej tau siv nws lub sijhawm mus txog qhov kawg. Tsuas yog ob lub lis piam dhau los, thaum kawg kuv tau mob siab rau ib kab rau kev lag luam kev xav, ntau lub sijhawm luv luv ua lag luam tau "ua siab tawv," kho txhua lub khw muag khoom raws li lub sijhawm yuav khoom.
Qhov ntawd, nyob rau hauv lem, tawm tswv yim tias txawm tias lub sij hawm luv luv tseem tsis tau nyob ntawm tes, raws li kev txheeb xyuas tsis sib haum.
Feem ntau ntawm cov bulls tam sim no tau muab pov rau hauv daim phuam. Tseeb tiag, qee qhov kev ntsuas kev xav tau qhia tias kev poob qis yog qhov hnyav tshaj niaj hnub no tshaj li thaum Lub Peb Hlis 2020 hauv qab, vim tias Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau xa kev lag luam mus rau hauv kev kho mob coma.
Qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias peb yuav tsum tam sim no cia siab tias yuav muaj qhov sib tw ntawm qhov loj npaum li peb tau pom txij lub Peb Hlis 2020 hauv qab. Contrarian tsom xam yog lub sij hawm luv luv lub sij hawm ua lag luam lub sij hawm zoo tshaj plaws, muab kev pom rau hauv kev ua lag luam qhov yuav tshwm sim tsuas yog lub hlis tom ntej los yog ob. Txawm li cas los xij, muab qhov kev xav tsis zoo niaj hnub no, cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb tam sim no cia siab tias lub khw lag luam yuav nyob ntawm lossis ze rau qee yam hauv qab.
Xav txog, ua ntej, qhov poob qis heev uas Nasdaq tsom mus rau lub sijhawm ua lag luam tau dhau los. Kuv ntsuas lawv qhov kev xav los ntawm kev suav lawv qhov nruab nrab qhov pom zoo pom muaj kev ncaj ncees. (Qhov nruab nrab no yog qhov sawv cev los ntawm Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, lossis HNNSI.)
Qhov nruab nrab tam sim no sawv ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg rho tawm 67.2%, uas txhais tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab Nasdaq tsom mus rau lub sijhawm ua lag luam tau pom zoo tias cov neeg siv khoom faib ob feem peb ntawm lawv cov peev txheej lag luam mus rau luv luv. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kev txhoj puab heev bearish posture.
Txhawm rau muab qib ntawd rau hauv cov ntsiab lus, xav tias qhov qis tshaj plaws uas HNNSI poob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020 yog "tsuas yog" rho tawm 64.0%. Qhov kev nyeem ntawv tam sim no qis dua tag nrho tab sis 1.8% ntawm kev nyeem ntawv sib piv txij li xyoo 2000. Qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo nyob rau hauv qab decile ntawm keeb kwm kev faib tawm, uas ib txhia contrarians siv los txheeb xyuas qhov kev poob siab heev. Cov decile hauv qab no yog ntxoov ntxoo nyob rau hauv daim ntawv nrog, saum toj no.
Kuj nthuav tawm yog qhov kev sib piv rau kev ua lag luam timers tus cwj pwm hauv lub Peb Hlis 2000. Hnub ntawd lub hli thaum Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-1.30%
pauv ntau dua 10% hauv qab nws txhua lub sijhawm siab, yog li txaus siab rau lub ntsiab lus ib nrab ntawm kev kho, qhov nruab nrab lub sijhawm ua lag luam tau nce siab dua li nws tau nyob rau saum toj.
Qhov kev hloov kho no tau rov txaus siab rau lub lim tiam no, tab sis raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia, lub sijhawm no qhov nruab nrab timer qhov kev pom zoo raug pom zoo yog ntau tshaj 100 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis dua ntawm lub khw sab saum toj.
Yog li, tsawg kawg los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, muaj qhov sib txawv loj ntawm kev ua lag luam kev xav niaj hnub no thiab nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm cov npuas hauv internet.
Lub sijhawm ua lag luam Tshuag lag luam uas tsom mus rau kev lag luam dav dav tsis yog qhov poob qis zoo li lawv cov kwv tij Nasdaq tsom, tab sis lawv kuj tau nce mus txog qhov poob qis. Qhov nruab nrab pom zoo kom muaj kev ncaj ncees ntawm cov pab pawg no ntawm kev lag luam thoob plaws lub sijhawm teem sijhawm (raws li sawv cev los ntawm Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, lossis HSNSI) sawv ntawm 1.6%, uas yog qis dua 89% ntawm tag nrho cov kev nyeem niaj hnub ntawm ob xyoo dhau los. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog nyob ntawm ntug ntawm lub hauv qab decile, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom hauv daim duab thib ob, hauv qab no.
Qhov kev tawm tsam uas cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb tam sim no xav tias yuav tau pib lawm. Yog tias muaj, nws yuav mus ntev npaum li cas?
Contrarians feem ntau zam txawm tias twv cov lus teb rau lo lus nug ntawd, es tsis txhob cia cov ntaub ntawv kev xav nthuav dav hauv lub sijhawm. Nws yuav yog ib qho kev txhawb siab yog tias lub sijhawm ua lag luam teb rau ib qho kev lag luam muaj zog los ntawm kev ua siab tawv tsis txaus ntseeg, thiab lub cim tsis zoo yog tias lawv dhia rov qab sai sai rau ntawm qhov bullish bandwagon.
Peb mam li paub sai sai. Nyob rau hauv lub meantime, nrhiav kev lag luam surprises yuav nyob rau hauv upside.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Lus Nug: Ib qho kos npe bullish? Nasdaq cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav tsis zoo tam sim no dua li nws tau nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020
Bearishness tau poob mus rau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg uas nws txhawb nqa kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv kev sib tw.
Kev xav yeej tau siv nws lub sijhawm mus txog qhov kawg. Tsuas yog ob lub lis piam dhau los, thaum kawg kuv tau mob siab rau ib kab rau kev lag luam kev xav, ntau lub sijhawm luv luv ua lag luam tau "ua siab tawv," kho txhua lub khw muag khoom raws li lub sijhawm yuav khoom.
Qhov ntawd, nyob rau hauv lem, tawm tswv yim tias txawm tias lub sij hawm luv luv tseem tsis tau nyob ntawm tes, raws li kev txheeb xyuas tsis sib haum.
Feem ntau ntawm cov bulls tam sim no tau muab pov rau hauv daim phuam. Tseeb tiag, qee qhov kev ntsuas kev xav tau qhia tias kev poob qis yog qhov hnyav tshaj niaj hnub no tshaj li thaum Lub Peb Hlis 2020 hauv qab, vim tias Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau xa kev lag luam mus rau hauv kev kho mob coma.
Qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias peb yuav tsum tam sim no cia siab tias yuav muaj qhov sib tw ntawm qhov loj npaum li peb tau pom txij lub Peb Hlis 2020 hauv qab. Contrarian tsom xam yog lub sij hawm luv luv lub sij hawm ua lag luam lub sij hawm zoo tshaj plaws, muab kev pom rau hauv kev ua lag luam qhov yuav tshwm sim tsuas yog lub hlis tom ntej los yog ob. Txawm li cas los xij, muab qhov kev xav tsis zoo niaj hnub no, cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb tam sim no cia siab tias lub khw lag luam yuav nyob ntawm lossis ze rau qee yam hauv qab.
Xav txog, ua ntej, qhov poob qis heev uas Nasdaq tsom mus rau lub sijhawm ua lag luam tau dhau los. Kuv ntsuas lawv qhov kev xav los ntawm kev suav lawv qhov nruab nrab qhov pom zoo pom muaj kev ncaj ncees. (Qhov nruab nrab no yog qhov sawv cev los ntawm Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, lossis HNNSI.)
Qhov nruab nrab tam sim no sawv ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg rho tawm 67.2%, uas txhais tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab Nasdaq tsom mus rau lub sijhawm ua lag luam tau pom zoo tias cov neeg siv khoom faib ob feem peb ntawm lawv cov peev txheej lag luam mus rau luv luv. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kev txhoj puab heev bearish posture.
Txhawm rau muab qib ntawd rau hauv cov ntsiab lus, xav tias qhov qis tshaj plaws uas HNNSI poob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020 yog "tsuas yog" rho tawm 64.0%. Qhov kev nyeem ntawv tam sim no qis dua tag nrho tab sis 1.8% ntawm kev nyeem ntawv sib piv txij li xyoo 2000. Qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo nyob rau hauv qab decile ntawm keeb kwm kev faib tawm, uas ib txhia contrarians siv los txheeb xyuas qhov kev poob siab heev. Cov decile hauv qab no yog ntxoov ntxoo nyob rau hauv daim ntawv nrog, saum toj no.
Kuj nthuav tawm yog qhov kev sib piv rau kev ua lag luam timers tus cwj pwm hauv lub Peb Hlis 2000. Hnub ntawd lub hli thaum Nasdaq Composite
-1.30%
COMP,
pauv ntau dua 10% hauv qab nws txhua lub sijhawm siab, yog li txaus siab rau lub ntsiab lus ib nrab ntawm kev kho, qhov nruab nrab lub sijhawm ua lag luam tau nce siab dua li nws tau nyob rau saum toj.
Qhov kev hloov kho no tau rov txaus siab rau lub lim tiam no, tab sis raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia, lub sijhawm no qhov nruab nrab timer qhov kev pom zoo raug pom zoo yog ntau tshaj 100 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis dua ntawm lub khw sab saum toj.
Yog li, tsawg kawg los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, muaj qhov sib txawv loj ntawm kev ua lag luam kev xav niaj hnub no thiab nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm cov npuas hauv internet.
Lub sijhawm ua lag luam Tshuag lag luam uas tsom mus rau kev lag luam dav dav tsis yog qhov poob qis zoo li lawv cov kwv tij Nasdaq tsom, tab sis lawv kuj tau nce mus txog qhov poob qis. Qhov nruab nrab pom zoo kom muaj kev ncaj ncees ntawm cov pab pawg no ntawm kev lag luam thoob plaws lub sijhawm teem sijhawm (raws li sawv cev los ntawm Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, lossis HSNSI) sawv ntawm 1.6%, uas yog qis dua 89% ntawm tag nrho cov kev nyeem niaj hnub ntawm ob xyoo dhau los. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog nyob ntawm ntug ntawm lub hauv qab decile, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom hauv daim duab thib ob, hauv qab no.
Qhov kev tawm tsam uas cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb tam sim no xav tias yuav tau pib lawm. Yog tias muaj, nws yuav mus ntev npaum li cas?
Contrarians feem ntau zam txawm tias twv cov lus teb rau lo lus nug ntawd, es tsis txhob cia cov ntaub ntawv kev xav nthuav dav hauv lub sijhawm. Nws yuav yog ib qho kev txhawb siab yog tias lub sijhawm ua lag luam teb rau ib qho kev lag luam muaj zog los ntawm kev ua siab tawv tsis txaus ntseeg, thiab lub cim tsis zoo yog tias lawv dhia rov qab sai sai rau ntawm qhov bullish bandwagon.
Peb mam li paub sai sai. Nyob rau hauv lub meantime, nrhiav kev lag luam surprises yuav nyob rau hauv upside.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bullish-sign-nasdaq-investor-sentiment-is-worse-now-than-it-was-in-march-2020-11642705184?siteid=yhoof2&yptr= yahoo