Ib hom kev nce nqi yog tshwm sim los ntawm cov teeb meem khoom siv (Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo)

Economists tab tom pib hais txog "kev tsis txaus ntseeg tsis txaus ntseeg." Lub tswv yim tshiab no sib cav hais tias thaum kev nce nqi yog tshwm sim los ntawm cov khoom lag luam teeb meem - xws li kev thov / khoom siv tsis sib haum, nyuaj rau kev ruaj ntseg cov khoom lag luam los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, teeb meem chaw nres nkoj, kev nce nqi hluav taws xob los ntawm kev ua tsov rog hauv Ukraine, thiab lwm yam - Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tsis muaj. ua dab tsi los coj tus nqi nce nqi; Kev nce nqi yuav txo qis los ntawm nws tus kheej thaum cov teeb meem kev xa khoom raug daws - raws li lawv inevitably dhau sijhawm.

Piv txwv li, cov neeg xa khoom siv ntau xyoo dhau los ua rau cov nqi xa khoom hiav txwv nce siab thiab cov nkoj tos rau hnub kom tshem tawm thaum lawv mus txog lawv qhov chaw nres nkoj. Tab sis SHIFEXFEX
, lub freight forwarder tus nqi Performance index, tsis ntev los no tau sau tseg tus nqi qis tshaj dej hiav txwv freight ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab qhov chaw nres nkoj ntawm Long Beach nyob rau hauv 24 lub hlis - tus nqi ntawm $3,500 mus rau ib tug 40-taw thawv. Qhov no yog ib qho 80% poob xyoo rau xyoo poob.

Thaum Tsoom Fwv Tebchaws Reserve (Fed) ntseeg tias kev nce nqi siab dhau lawm, lawv nce cov paj laum. Kev nce cov paj laum ua rau cov tuam txhab txiav txim siab rau forego peev peev; kev tsim kho qeeb; txo qis kev muag khoom dawb, tsheb thiab tsheb thauj khoom; thiab siab rau cov tsev txhab nyiaj. Thaum kawg, qhov no qeeb hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam ripples los ntawm kev lag luam. Qee zaum, "qhov chaw mos" ua tiav, thiab kev lag luam tsis poob rau hauv kev lag luam. Tab sis feem ntau recessions yog qhov tshwm sim.

Yog li, cov lus nug rau cov kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag yog qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov 8.3% kev nce nqi yuav nqis los ntawm nws tus kheej, vim qhov ua rau feem ntau tshwm sim los ntawm cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv? Tab sis cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam, xws li Paul Krueger thiab Joseph Politano, tau xaus lus tias kev tsis muaj nyiaj txiag tsis zoo yuav tsis daws qhov teeb meem. Fed yuav tsum tau nce nqi. Tus nqi nce nqi siab heev uas Fed tau qhia tias nws yuav nruj thiab tsis tu ncua nce nqi kom txog thaum kev nce nqi tswj hwm. Nyob rau hauv luv luv, ib tug recession yog heev yuav.

Muaj ib phau ntawv ua si rau cov tuam txhab ntsib kev poob nyiaj txiag. Nws yog qhov nyuaj rau kev kwv yees kev xav tau poob qis. Cov teeb liab yuav ua lag luam dab tsi tshwm sim hauv kev ua lag luam thiab cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav qeeb los txiav ntau lawm. Yog li, yog tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, cov tuam txhab yuav tsum ua yuam kev ntawm ib sab ntawm kev saib xyuas kev kwv yees, npaj kom tshem tawm cov neeg ua haujlwm sai dua tom qab, thiab pib kos lawv cov khoom ruaj ntseg cov khoom muag.

Ntau lub tuam txhab ua haujlwm kom txuag nyiaj ntsuab los ntawm kev them lawv cov neeg muag khoom qeeb dua. Qhov no yuav tsum tau ua kom zoo zoo, ib lub tuam txhab yuav tsum ua kom lawv tsis txhob yuam lawv cov neeg muag khoom tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam. Lub caij no, cov txheej txheem kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo tuaj yeem siv los saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv nyiaj txiag ntawm cov neeg muag khoom sab saud kom lwm cov khoom siv tuaj yeem ruaj ntseg sai yog tias cov neeg muag khoom tseem ceeb muaj teeb meem. Supply chain risk management applications tau pib daws qhov teeb meem nyuaj heev ntawm kev txheeb xyuas thiab saib xyuas cov neeg muag khoom ob peb echelons nce toj hauv lawv cov saw hlau.

Kev nce nyiaj poob haujlwm zoo li yuav tsis muaj. Kuj tseem muaj txoj hauv kev thiab txoj hauv kev tsis ncaj ncees los daws cov neeg tawm haujlwm. Hauv ib qho kev qhia daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas ntawm 1,000 tsis ntev los no tau tso tawm cov neeg ua haujlwm, 65% hais tias lawv tus tswv ntiav haujlwm tuaj yeem ua tau txoj haujlwm zoo dua los tuav cov haujlwm. Raws li cov lus ceeb toom, cov neeg ua haujlwm feem ntau ntseeg tias kev tawm haujlwm yuav tsum ib txwm sib txuas lus ntawm tus kheej, tsis yog qhov zoo. Cov neeg Amelikas xav tau tsawg kawg yog ob lub hlis ntawm cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm tab sis tsuas yog 27% ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm raug rho tawm haujlwm tau txais cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm.