Jeremy Grantham yog ntawm Wall Street cov neeg ua lag luam uas hwm tshaj plaws.
Tus cofounder ntawm Boston asset manager GMO yog paub zoo tias muaj kwv yees Japanese khoom vaj khoom tsev nqi npuas nyob rau xyoo 1980, dot-com npuas ntawm lub 90s lig, thiab txawm tias US vaj tse tawg ua ntej xyoo 2008 nyiaj txiag teeb meem.
Tam sim no 83-xyoo-laus Wall Street cov qub tub rog tab tom sib cav tias txawm tias lub khw muag khoom muaj teeb meem rau xyoo no, kev lag luam kev poob qis tseem tsis tau los. Grantham tau ceeb toom ntawm brewing "superbubble, ”thiab nws hais tias nws tseem tsis tau pop.
Nyob rau hnub Wednesday tshawb xyuas tsab ntawv, tus neeg ua lag luam tau sau tseg tias cov khoom lag luam tseem "nyiaj heev" thiab kev nce nqi siab zoo li kev lag luam tab tom ntsib tam sim no tau muaj keeb kwm coj lawv cov txiaj ntsig rau kev cog lus. Nws kuj tau hais tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb "cov hauv paus ntsiab lus" tau pib "tsis zoo zuj zus" hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, taw qhia rau COVID-19 kev kaw haujlwm hauv Suav teb, lub zog ntsoog nyob teb chaws Europe, ntiaj teb zaub mov tsis ruaj khov, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve paj laum hikes, thiab txo qis tsoomfwv kev siv nyiaj thoob ntiaj teb.
"Lub superbubble tam sim no muaj qhov sib xyaw txaus ntshai uas tsis tau muaj dua los ntawm kev sib tw ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam dhau los (nrog rau cov ntawv cog lus, vaj tsev, thiab cov khoom lag luam tag nrho cov nqi qis dua thiab tam sim no poob qis), cov khoom lag luam poob siab, thiab Fed hawkishness," Grantham sau. "Txhua lub voj voog sib txawv thiab tshwj xeeb - tab sis txhua qhov kev sib piv ntawm keeb kwm qhia tias qhov phem tshaj tseem yuav los."
Grantham tau sib cav tsis tu ncua tias cov kev cai nyiaj txiag xoob ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab lwm lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab, suav nrog cov paj laum zero thiab nquag easing, pab tsim "superbubble" nyob rau hauv cov khoom vaj khoom tsev nqi thoob ntiaj teb nyob rau hauv lub xyoo caum dhau los, spawning ib tug era ntawm investor euphoria. Thiab thaum euphoria tshwm sim, ib qho kev sib tsoo feem ntau nyob ib ncig ntawm lub ces kaum, nws sib cav.
Grantham tseem tsis tau yuav lub tswv yim tias cov khoom lag luam sib sau ua ke lub caij ntuj sov no yog qhov pib ntawm lub khw muag nyuj tshiab, ceeb toom tias "superbubbles" muaj keeb kwm qhia txog kev lag luam luv luv.
"Superbubbles yog cov xwm txheej tsis zoo li lwm tus: Txawm hais tias tsuas muaj qee qhov hauv keeb kwm rau cov tub ua lag luam los kawm, lawv muaj cov yam ntxwv meej meej," nws sau. "Ib qho ntawm cov yam ntxwv no yog lub lag luam dais rally ... Lub caij ntuj sov lub rooj sib tham tau txog tam sim no zoo kawg nkaus haum tus qauv."
Nws cov lus hais tawm cov lus hais los ntawm ntau tus tub rog Wall Street, suav nrog Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj peev Mike Wilson, uas tau sib cav txog kev sib tw dais lag luam tsis muaj dab tsi tab sis. ib “trap” rau cov tub ua lag luam tsis ncaj ncees txij li Lub Rau Hli (txawm tias Wilson nres luv luv ntawm kev hu rau lub lag luam npuas).
Grantham tau piav qhia txog cov theem zoo uas cov pob zeb loj dhau mus thaum lawv tawg, ceeb toom tias qhov kev lag luam tam sim no zoo ib yam li cov qauv keeb kwm.
“Ua ntej, cov ntaub ntawv npuas; Qhov thib ob, qhov teeb meem tshwm sim, raws li nws nyuam qhuav tau ua nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no, thaum qee qhov wrinkle hauv kev lag luam lossis kev nom kev tswv ib puag ncig ua rau cov tub ua lag luam paub tias kev ua tiav yuav, tom qab tag nrho, tsis nyob mus ib txhis, thiab kev nqis peev rov qab ib nrab. . Tom qab ntawd muaj qhov peb nyuam qhuav pom - kev lag luam dais. Plaub thiab thaum kawg, cov hauv paus ntsiab lus tsis zoo thiab kev lag luam poob qis, "nws sau.
Grantham kuj tau piav qhia txog yuav ua li cas nce kev nce nqi yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tab sis kev poob nyiaj txiag lag luam yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev poob mus txog lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Nws xaus nws daim ntawv tshawb fawb nrog ib qho tseem ceeb caveat txog nws qhov kev kwv yees, txawm li cas los xij.
"Yog tias lub lag luam dais tau tas lawm, qhov sib piv nrog peb lwm US superbubbles - txog tam sim no txawv ntawm kab - yuav tawg tag. Qhov no yog ib txwm ua tau. Txhua lub voj voog sib txawv, thiab txhua qhov tsoomfwv cov lus teb tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees, "nws hais. "Tab sis ... yog tias keeb kwm rov ua dua, qhov kev ua si yuav rov ua qhov xwm txheej. Peb yuav tsum cia siab rau lub sijhawm no rau tus menyuam yaus. "
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-wall-street-best-bubble-211330123.html