Ntawm Tus Nqi Tsev, Powell Forecasts Kev Kho, Nws Pom Dab Tsi?

Ntsiab Cai

• Kev muag khoom hauv tsev tau nqis 20% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, ua rau muaj kev cia siab los ntawm cov neeg uas tab tom nrhiav kom nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev.
• Cov kws tshawb fawb kwv yees kwv yees tus nqi tsev loj hlob kom nres hauv 2023.
• Kev nce nqi txuas ntxiv los ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab muaj ntau tus kws tshaj lij txhawj xeeb txog qhov no txhais li cas rau kev lag luam vaj tsev.

Ob peb xyoos dhau los, peb txhua tus tau hnov ​​​​ntau txog qhov no kub vaj lag luam. Cov dab neeg tau tshwm sim hais txog cov tsev muag hauv lub sijhawm sau tseg, cov neeg yuav khoom tau soj ntsuam xyuas hauv tsev kom tau txais kev muag khoom, muab tag nrho cov nyiaj ntsuab saum toj sau npe tsis pom cov cuab yeej li ntau lub nroog tau dhau los ua tsis muaj nqis.

Cov neeg uas xav nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tse tau txhawj xeeb thiab xav tsis thoob tias lawv puas yuav muaj peev xwm them tau tsev.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tau hais tias, "peb tau muaj lub sijhawm muaj kev lag luam kub kub hauv lub tebchaws ... Tej zaum peb nyob hauv kev ua lag luam vaj tsev yuav tsum tau los ntawm kev kho. "

Nws zoo nkaus li tias tus nqi vaj tsev loj hlob thaum kawg yuav rov qab los rau qhov tseeb, tsawg kawg yog qhov kev cia siab. Ntau tus tswv tsev zoo siab tau ua siab ntev tos cov nqi vaj tsev poob qis kom lawv thiaj li tuaj yeem nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam thaum kawg.

Qhov no puas yog kev tuag qeeb rau tus neeg muag khoom lub khw? Peb yuav sim ua kom nkag siab txog kev lag luam vaj tsev tam sim no.

Nws tseem tsis tau yog tus neeg yuav khoom lag luam

Peb yuav tsum pib los ntawm kev sib qhia qee qhov kev poob siab me ntsis rau cov neeg uas tab tom nrhiav nkag rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob ze yav tom ntej. Nws tsis yog raws nraim tus neeg yuav khoom lag luam. Txawm hais tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev tau nqis 20.2% los ntawm lub xyoo dhau los, qhov nruab nrab tus nqi muag khoom hauv tsev tau nce 10.8% xyoo tas los, raws li National Association of Realtors (NAR). Tus nqi nruab nrab uas twb muaj lawm-tsev muag tam sim no zaum ntawm $ 403,800, tab sis nws tau nqis los ntawm Lub Rau Hli cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm $ 413,800.

Ib tus kws tshawb fawb los ntawm NAR tau qhia tias peb nyob hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev vim tias muaj kev poob qis hauv tsev muag khoom thiab tsev. Txawm li cas los xij, nws tsis yog kev poob qis hauv cov nqi txij li cov khoom muag tseem tseem siab txaus.

Cov neeg yuav khoom muaj peev xwm tau cia siab tias lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws kom nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav nyob ze ntawm lub ces kaum. Ntau tus neeg tau khaws cia hauv kev cia siab thaum kawg tuaj yeem yuav lub tsev ntawm tus nqi tsim nyog, tab sis nws tsis tshwm sim tias cov nqi vaj tsev yuav poob qis sai sai. Txawm li cas los xij, muaj qee qhov xov xwm zoo rau cov neeg yuav khoom.

Tsis muaj kev sib tw ua tsov rog ntxiv lawm

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Redfin, lub tsev nruab nrab yog muag qis dua nws daim ntawv teev nqi thawj zaug txij li lub Peb Hlis 2021. Qhov no yog ib qho tseem ceeb metric vim nws txhais tau hais tias cov tsev tsis poob los ntawm daim ntawv teev nqi rau 17 lub hlis, yog li qhov tseem ceeb, feem ntau tiag tiag. Kev lag luam vaj tse yuav muaj qee yam kev sib tw sib tw. Peb txhua tus tau hnov ​​​​txog qee cov dab neeg tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm kev sib tw ua tsov rog thiab cov neeg xav tau li cas tau nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev. Yog tias koj yog tus neeg yuav khoom, koj tsis tas yuav txhawj xeeb txog kev nkag mus rau hauv kev sib tw sib tw hnyav xws li qee tus neeg yuav tsum tau ob peb lub hlis rov qab.

Redfin tseem tshaj tawm tias cov tsev muag khoom nrog tus nqi txo ob npaug rau 14.9% hauv Lub Rau Hli los ntawm xyoo dhau los. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias cov neeg muag khoom yuav tsum muaj qhov tseeb nrog lawv cov kev cia siab rau ntau npaum li cas lawv tuaj yeem ua tau.

Cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Redfin tau txawm kwv yees tias tom qab kev ua haujlwm txias hauv kev ua lag luam vaj tsev tuaj yeem mob siab dua rau xyoo no, nrog kev cia siab tias cov tsev yuav nyob twj ywm hauv kev lag luam ntev dua li yav dhau los. Yog tias lub tsev nyob hauv kev ua lag luam ntev dua, muaj peev xwm rau cov tsev pib muag qis dua tus nqi teev npe ntau dua nyob rau ob peb lub hlis dhau los ntawm 2022. Txawm li cas los xij, tsuas yog lub sijhawm yuav qhia yog tias cov neeg muag khoom txaus siab txaus los tawm hauv kev ua lag luam los ntawm kev faib tawm rau ib qho. tus nqi qis dua.

Dab tsi yog qhov qhia tias tus nqi vaj tsev yuav poob?

Muaj kev ntseeg tias kev nce khoom ua ke nrog kev thov txo qis tuaj yeem ua rau tus nqi qis hauv tsev. Kev muab cov tsev tshiab hauv Asmeskas hla dhau kaum lub hlis hauv Lub Xya Hli. Qhov no yog qib siab tshaj txij li lub Ib Hlis 2009. Txhua zaus nws tau dhau 10 lub hlis dhau los, Tebchaws Asmeskas tau poob qis. Tus lej tau raug mus rau 10.9 thaum Lub Yim Hli 23, 200. Lub hli cov khoom siv yog lub sijhawm siv los ntsuas tus naj npawb ntawm lub hlis nws yuav siv rau cov khoom muag ntawm cov tsev nyob rau lub khw tam sim no los muag, xav txog kev muag khoom. Lub hli cov khoom tau nyob ntawm qhov qis qis ntawm 1.9 lub hlis nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020.

Raws li National Association of Realtors (NAR), kev muag khoom hauv tsev tam sim no poob 5.9% hauv Lub Xya Hli los ntawm lub hli dhau los. Yog tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev txuas ntxiv mus, nws muaj peev xwm ua rau cov nqi poob vim cov neeg muag khoom yuav tsis xav tos ib puag ncig kom pom qhov zoo tshaj plaws.

Redfin kuj tau tshaj tawm tias Google tshawb nrhiav lo lus tseem ceeb "tsev muag khoom" tau poob qis thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli los ntawm 27% ntawm xyoo dhau los. Cov qauv no tuaj yeem qhia tau tias tib neeg xav txog ob zaug txog kev nkag mus rau kev lag luam vaj tsev vim kev txhawj xeeb txog tus nqi nce mus ntxiv rau cov xov xwm.

Cov nqi tsev siab dua piv rau cov nqi tsev ntau dua

Lwm qhov teeb meem hauv kev ua lag luam vaj tsev yog cov nqi xauj tsev siab sib tw los ntawm kev them nqi tsev ntau dua los ntawm cov tswv tsev. Yav dhau los, ntau tus neeg ua lag luam vaj tsev yuav sib cav tias cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tsim cov khoom lag luam zoo. Nrog nce nqi xauj tsev, nws nyuaj rau tig tau nyiaj raws li tus tswv tsev vim tias cov nyiaj qiv tsev kuj tau nce. Nrog rau cov nqi tsev, cov nqi pov hwm kuj tau nce mus.

Thaum lub Yim Hli lig, nws tau tshaj tawm tias cov nqi xauj tsev tau nce siab rau lub hli 17th ua ke hauv Lub Xya Hli. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm realtor.com, lub teb chaws nruab nrab nqi xauj tsev yog nyob rau ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab hgh ntawm $ 1,879 ib hlis rau Lub Xya Hli, uas yog nce 12.% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los. Tus nqi pauv hloov pauv qeeb, txawm li cas los xij, vim tias 10% YoY nce yog qhov tsawg tshaj plaws uas peb tau pom txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 2021.

Raws li kev xauj tsev nce, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce ntau dua xyoo tas los. Lub Koom Haum Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag tau qhia tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nyiaj qiv tsev txhua hli yog yuav luag 1.5Xx ntau npaum li qhov nruab nrab txhua hli thov nqi tsev rau lub quarter thib ob. Qhov no yuav yog qib siab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau xyoo 2009. Yog tias cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nce ntxiv, ntau tus neeg ua lag luam muaj peev xwm yuav xav txog ob zaug txog kev nkag mus rau hauv vaj tsev raws li kev nqis peev.

Vim li cas thiaj muaj cov nyiaj qiv tsev skyrocketed?

Kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov nqi tsev siab dua thiab cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj ntau dua tau ua rau cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj ua rau tsis tsim nyog thiab hem. Cov paj laum yog keeb kwm qis thaum lub sijhawm kaw, ua rau muaj vaj tsev nyob. Kev lag luam boom thaum kawg ua rau kev sib tw ua tsov rog uas ua rau muaj ntau tus neeg yuav khoom cia siab.

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Yim Hli 30 thiab cov lej tau pom tias cov nqi tsev tau nce 18% nyob rau xyoo tas los txij li lub Rau Hli. Txhawm rau ntxiv qhov kev xav ntxiv, nws zoo li Asmeskas cov nqi tsev tau nce 40% txij li kev sib kis tau pib (los ntawm Lub Ob Hlis 2020 txog Lub Tsib Hlis 2022, kom muaj tseeb). Nrog cov nqi vaj tsev siab zoo sib xws nrog cov paj laum ntxiv, cov nyiaj qiv tsev tau nce siab.

Cov nqi tsev puas yuav poob?

Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kev kwv yees kom meej tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim rau kev lag luam vim tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tseem pheej nce cov paj laum kom qeeb kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, nws tsim nyog sau cia tias Goldman Sachs tau ceeb toom nws cov neeg siv khoom tias cov nqi tsev yuav tsum nyob twj ywm tag nrho hauv 2023. Lawv mus txog qhov kwv yees tias tus nqi tsev loj hlob yuav nyob ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 0% hauv 2023. Thaum cov neeg yuav khoom yuav pom. qhov no yog cov xov xwm zoo vim tias tus nqi yuav tsis nce mus ntxiv, cov nqi vaj tsev tseem tseem nce ntxiv txij li thaum pib muaj kev sib kis.

Uas tau hais tias, muaj qhov sib txawv loj ntawm kev kaw tus nqi tsev loj hlob thiab cov nqi vaj tsev txo qis. Tsuas yog vim qhov chaw loj hlob, nws tsis txhais hais tias cov nqi yuav poob. Qee cov kws tshaj lij xav tias qhov kev thov hauv tsev yuav nyob twj ywm vim muaj kev ua lag luam muaj zog thiab cov khoom tsis txaus. Nrog rau qhov kev thov muaj zog rau cov tsev, nws nyuaj rau xav txog cov nqi vaj tse poob qis ib lub sijhawm sai sai.

Koj yuav tsum tau nqis peev li cas?

Nws tuaj yeem nyuaj rau kev txiav txim siab yog tias koj yuav tsum tau nqis peev koj cov nyiaj hauv kev lag luam vaj tse tsis meej pem tam sim no. Kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse yuav pheej hmoo dua thaum koj ua rau cov paj laum siab thiab nce nqi vaj tsev. Ntawm qhov tod tes, koj tsis xav kom muab xauv rau ntawm tus nqi siab astronomically. Ntawm qhov tod tes, koj tsis paub meej yog tias koj yuav tsum tau tos ntev dua rau cov nqi kom poob mus rau theem ua ntej kis thoob qhov txhia chaw lossis yog tias tseem muaj peev xwm ntawm lub sijhawm no.

Lwm txoj hauv kev yog kev nqis peev hauv vaj tsev los ntawm kev yuav khoom hauv cov tuam txhab uas cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam vaj tsev. Q.ai muab Cov khoom siv nqis peev nrog REITs thiab lwm qhov chaw ua vaj tse nyob hauv.

kab hauv qab

Nws tsis yog ib tus neeg muag khoom lag luam rau cov laj thawj uas tau teev tseg hauv tsab xov xwm no, tab sis peb tsis yog ib tus neeg yuav khoom lag luam tseem. Ob peb lub hlis tom ntej no yuav yog kev hloov pauv. Muaj ntau cov ntaub ntawv taw qhia nyob rau hauv ntau cov lus qhia, tab sis nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau hais kom meej thaum cov nqi vaj tse yuav poob. Kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi hauv tsev zoo li qeeb qeeb, tab sis cov neeg txiav txim plaub ntug tseem tawm ntawm thaum tus nqi yuav poob thiab yuav mus deb npaum li cas. Federal Reserve Chair Powell tej zaum yuav yog, nws tuaj yeem yog lub sijhawm rau kev kho vaj tse.