Cov roj yog qhov kub tshaj plaws, thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Wall Street pom qhov nce mus txog 48% rau cov khoom lag luam nyiam

Lub zog yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws kev lag luam lag luam hauv xyoo no. Muab qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam muaj zog niaj hnub no thiab kev nce nqi, ntau tus ntseeg tias cov nqi roj yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm qib tam sim no rau ntau xyoo lossis tej zaum yuav nce siab dua.

Hauv qab no yog ob lub vijtsam ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau txais los ntawm kev tuav ntawm peb cov nyiaj pauv pauv uas tau nqis peev hauv cov tuam txhab roj thiab cov roj ntsha.

Kev tshuaj xyuas cov nqi roj

Ua ntej, ntawm no yog daim ntawv qhia qhia tus nqi txav mus rau pem hauv ntej-hli daim ntawv cog lus rau West Texas Intermediate Crude Roj
CL00
10 xyoo dhau los:


FactSet

Qhov tob tab sis luv luv poob rau ntawm daim duab yog lub Plaub Hlis 2020, thaum qhov kev thov rau cov roj tanked thaum ntxov ntawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, cov chaw khaws cia tau puv thiab cov uas tuav cov ntawv cog lus ua ntej lub hli yuav tsum tau them nyiaj rau tib neeg kom tshem cov roj. lawv ob txhais tes.

Roj nqi cia siab los ntawm no

Yog li dab tsi nyob tom ntej rau cov nqi roj?

Hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom muab rau cov neeg siv khoom thaum Lub Ob Hlis 10, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm BCA Kev Tshawb Fawb tau hais tias lawv ntseeg tias cov nqi yuav nce ntxiv rau kaum xyoo tom ntej vim qhov kev thov nce ntxiv thiab cov khoom siv poob qis. Cov kev hem thawj rau cov khoom siv suav nrog tsoomfwv qhov kev txiav txim uas txwv tsis pub siv cov roj fossil thiab "kev nyab xeeb kev nyab xeeb ntawm pawg thawj coj ntawm cov chaw muab hluav taws xob loj thiab hauv chav tsev hais plaub."

Hauv lwm lo lus, lub hom phiaj zoo tshaj plaws los txo cov pa roj carbon monoxide tuaj yeem thawb cov roj pries siab dua vim tias lwm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv sij hawm ntev kom muaj ntau txaus los txwv kev thov rau fossil fuels.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam BCA pom zoo rau lub sijhawm ntev rau cov roj los ntawm ETFs.

Peb lub zog ETFs

Yog tias koj pom zoo nrog cov xwm txheej saum toj no koj yuav xav xav txog kev nqis peev dav hauv kev lag luam los ntawm ib lossis ntau ETFs. Nov yog saib ceev ntawm peb ntawm lawv:

  • Lub Zog Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR ETF
    XLE
    taug qab lub zog sector ntawm S&P 500
    SPX.
    Qhov ntawd yog ib pawg ntawm 21 cov khoom lag luam. Qhov no yog tib qho kev lag luam ntawm S&P 500 uas tau nce xyoo no - tag nrho rov qab los ntawm 24.4% txog Lub Ob Hlis 9, nrog cov nyiaj faib rov qab nqis peev. XLE muaj $ 35.7 nphom hauv cov cuab tam thiab cov nuj nqis txhua xyoo ntawm 0.12% ntawm cov cuab tam. Nws yog cov concentrated heev, nrog kev koom nrog Exxon Mobil Corp.
    XOM
    thiab Chevron Corp.
    CVX
    ua tau 44% ntawm cov lag luam tawm.

  • Lub iShares Ntiaj Teb Zog ETF
    IXC
    tuav 46 cov khoom lag luam, suav nrog tag nrho cov khoom lag luam tuav los ntawm XLE. Nws coj hauv cov tuam txhab tsis yog Asmeskas loj, xws li Shell PLC
    UK: SHEL

    SHEL,
    TotalEnergies SE
    FR: TTE

    T
    thiab BP PLC
    UK: BP

    BP.
    (Rau peb lub tuam txhab nyuam qhuav tau teev tseg, thawj daim ntawv kos npe yog lub zos, qhov thib ob yog daim ntawv txais nyiaj ntawm Asmeskas, lossis ADR. Ntau lub tuam txhab lag luam hauv zos uas tsis yog Asmeskas tau teev tseg hauv qab no kuj muaj ADRs.) IXC muaj $ 1.8 billion hauv cov cuab tam, nrog tus nqi piv ntawm 0.43%. Cov peev nyiaj loj tshaj ob qhov kev tuav pov hwm yog Exxon Mobil thiab Chevron, uas ua ke ua 25.5% ntawm cov ntaub ntawv.

  • The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF
    CA: XEG
    tuav 20 cov khoom lag luam ntawm Canadian lub zog tsim khoom. Nws tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb heev, nrog rau peb qhov loj tshaj plaws tuav, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
    CNQ.
    , Suncor Energy Inc.
    SU
    thiab Cenovus Energy Inc.
    CVE
    ua ib nrab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. ETF muaj 2 billion Canadian las hauv tag nrho cov cuab tam, nrog rau tus nqi piv ntawm 0.63%.

Tej zaum koj yuav xav tsis thoob vim li cas ib lub teb chaws ETF txawv teb chaws suav nrog hauv daim ntawv teev npe, tab sis Canada sawv tawm nrog nws qhov nthuav dav ntawm fossil-roj ntau lawm. Lub iShares S&P / TSX Capped Energy Index ETF tau ua tau zoo dua lwm qhov ob ETFs hauv xyoo tas los no, thaum ua haujlwm tsis zoo rau lub sijhawm ntev.

Nov yog qhov kev sib piv ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj rov qab, nrog cov nyiaj faib rov ua lag luam, rau peb ETFs thiab SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SIV
mus txog Lub Ob Hlis 9:

S&P 500 kev ua haujlwm

2022

1 xyoo

3 xyoo

5 xyoo

10 xyoo

15 xyoo

20 xyoo

Lub Zog Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR Nyiaj Txiag

24.1%

64%

31%

20%

33%

81%

355%

iShares Ntiaj Teb Zog ETF

21.7%

55%

22%

24%

18%

49%

262%

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF

19.0%

98%

49%

11%

-10%

-11%

177%

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Ntseeg

-3.7%

19%

78%

117%

310%

328%

510%

Source: FactSet

Lub iShares S&P / TSX Capped Energy Index ETF tau ci ntsa iab dhau ib thiab peb xyoos dhau los. Koj tseem tuaj yeem pom tias cov nqi roj poob qis npaum li cas los ntawm nruab nrab xyoo 2014 txog rau thaum ntxov 2016 ua rau lub zog ua haujlwm ntev.

Saib ua ntej rau ETFs

Ntawm no yog tus nqi-rau-nyiaj tau los piv rau peb lub zog ETFs thiab SPY, nrog rau kev cia siab ntawm kev loj hlob txhua xyoo (CAGR) rau cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem ntawm 2023, raws li kev pom zoo kwv yees ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas los ntawm FactSet:

S&P 500 kev ua haujlwm

Ticker

Xa P / E

Ob xyoos kwv yees muag CAGR

Ob xyoos kwv yees EPS CAGR

Lub Zog Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR Nyiaj Txiag

XLE 12.7

3.8%

14.1%

iShares Ntiaj Teb Zog ETF

IXC 10.7

4.3%

9.4%

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF

CA: XEG 8.6

4.1%

9.7%

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Ntseeg

SIV 20.2

6.5%

9.1%

Source: FactSet

Los ntawm qhov sib piv P / E rau pem hauv ntej, lub zog ETFs yuav raug suav hais tias pheej yig txheeb ze rau SPY, txawm li cas los xij, lawv "tau txais" cov tub ua lag luam tsis ntseeg thaum lub sijhawm poob qis ntawm cov nqi lag luam los ntawm nruab nrab xyoo 2014 txog thaum ntxov 2016, thiab, ntawm chav kawm, thaum ntxov. tus kab mob sib kis.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tsis cia siab tias yuav pom cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob zoo heev rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv ob xyoos tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, lawv cia siab tias yuav tau txais kev loj hlob zoo dua li lawv ua rau kev lag luam dav hauv Asmeskas - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau XLE.

Ob lub zog stock screen

Peb lub zog ETFs ua ke tuav 63 cov khoom lag luam. Ob lub vijtsam hauv qab no qhia tias ETF lossis ETFs tuav txhua lub Tshuag.

Thawj qhov screen: nyiaj faib tawm

Muab qhov zoo li qhov chaw noj qab haus huv rau cov nqi roj, kev txiav nyiaj faib dav dav, xws li cov uas peb tau pom thaum ntxov muaj kev sib kis, zoo li tsis zoo li. Nrog rau qhov ntawd hauv siab, thawj qhov screen ntawm 63 cov khoom lag luam tuav los ntawm peb ETFs tsuas yog los ntawm cov nyiaj faib tawm.

Ntawm no yog 21 cov khoom lag luam tuav los ntawm peb ETFs nrog cov nyiaj tau los siab tshaj plaws (tshaj 4%), nrog rau cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kev xav ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Cov nqi sib koom thiab cov phiaj xwm kev pom zoo yog nyob rau hauv cov txiaj ntsig ntawm lub teb chaws uas cov khoom lag luam tau teev tseg.

lub tuam txhab

Ticker

Lub teb chaws

Muab cov nyiaj faib tawm

Qhia "yuav" kev ntsuas

Tus nqi kaw - Lub Ob Hlis 9

Cons. Nqe hom phiaj

Implied upside muaj peev xwm

Tuav los ntawm

Petroleo Brasileiro SA ADR Pfd

PBR Brazil

16.05%

57%

12.26

14.79

21%

IXC

Petroleo Brasileiro SA ADR

PBR Brazil

14.66%

50%

13.42

14.09

5%

IXC

Tus tsim tawm: Enbridge Inc.

CA: ENB Canada

6.32%

57%

54.44

55.16

1%

IXC

Kinder Morgan Inc Chav Kawm P

KMI US

6.22%

21%

17.37

19.15

10%

XLE, IXC

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.

CA: PAB Canada

6.09%

67%

9.85

13.83

40%

XEG

Pembina Pipeline Corp.

CA: PPL Canada

6.07%

39%

41.49

43.97

6%

IXC

GALP Energia SGPS SA Class B

PT: PIB Portugal

5.99%

52%

10.02

11.72

17%

IXC

ONEOK, UA

OK US

5.88%

29%

63.64

66.00

4%

XLE, IXC

Williams Cos., Inc.

WMB US

5.58%

68%

30.47

32.09

5%

XLE, IXC

Freehold Royalties Ltd.

CA: FRU Canada

5.41%

87%

13.30

16.60

25%

XEG

TC Energy Corp.

TRP Canada

5.28%

35%

65.85

67.32

2%

IXC

Eni SpA

TSI: ENI Ltalis

5.06%

67%

13.25

14.81

12%

IXC

TotalEnergies SE

T Fabkis

5.04%

71%

52.40

55.55

6%

IXC

ENEOS Holdings, Inc.

JP: 5020 Nyiv

4.79%

78%

459.00

550.67

20%

IXC

Inpex Corp.

JP: 1605 Nyiv

4.71%

78%

1,147.00

1,371.11

20%

IXC

Suncor Zog Inc.

CA: UA Canada

4.59%

64%

36.59

43.50

19%

IXC, XEG

Exxon Mobil Co.

XOM US

4.46%

35%

79.00

80.75

2%

XLE, IXC

Lub Tuam Txhab Valero Energy Corp.

VLO US

4.41%

81%

88.84

94.41

6%

XLE, IXC

Chevron Corp.

CVX US

4.12%

74%

137.79

144.41

5%

XLE, IXC

Phillips 66

PSX US

4.11%

79%

89.45

99.31

11%

XLE, IXC

OMV AG

AW: OMV Austria

4.07%

50%

56.46

62.51

11%

IXC

Source: FactSet

Koj tuaj yeem nyem rau cov zuam rau ntau ntxiv txog txhua lub tuam txhab.

Tom qab ntawd nyeem Tomi Kilgore cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws txog cov ntaub ntawv muaj txiaj ntsig muaj pub dawb ntawm nplooj ntawv MarketWatch quote.

Tsis txhob xav tias cov nyiaj faib tau faib rau peb lub hlis twg, zoo li feem ntau rau US cov khoom lag luam. Qee lub tuam txhab tsuas yog faib txhua xyoo.

Tsis tas li ntawd nco ntsoov tias cov khoom lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig siab tshaj plaws hauv daim ntawv teev npe yog Asmeskas cov ntawv txais nyiaj tso nyiaj ntawm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (lub npe hu ua "Petrobas") cov khoom sib koom.
PBR
thiab nyiam shares
PBR.
Tsis zoo li cov khoom lag luam nyiam tshaj tawm hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, qhov teeb meem nyiam Petrobas no tsis muaj nqi. (Cov ntaub ntawv ntxiv txog Petrobas ADRs muaj nyob rau hauv daim ntawv no txij lub Kaum Ob Hlis 21, 2021 nrog rau Securities thiab Exchange Commission.)

Ib qho khoom lag luam nrog cov nyiaj tau los ntau dua 14% muaj cov lus ceeb toom ua ntej. Yog tias cov tub ua lag luam xav kom cov nyiaj faib kom muaj kev nyab xeeb, cov nqi sib koom yuav siab dua thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los qis dua. Yog li qhov no yog kev nqis peev uas yuav zoo tshaj plaws rau cov kws tshaj lij lossis lwm tus neeg ua lag luam sophisticated.

Qhov screen thib ob: cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xaiv

Rov qab mus rau peb cov npe sib koom ua ke ntawm 63 cov khoom lag luam, ntawm no yog 18 nyiam los ntawm tsawg kawg yog 80% ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas los ntawm FactSet, txheeb los ntawm 12-hli upside peev xwm raws li tau hais los ntawm kev pom zoo nqe hom phiaj. Koj tuaj yeem pom tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam pom zoo rau ntau tus Canadian cov roj thiab roj cov neeg tsim khoom hauv lockstep:

lub tuam txhab

Ticker

Lub teb chaws

Qhia "yuav" kev ntsuas

Tus nqi kaw - Lub Ob Hlis 9

Cons. Nqe hom phiaj

Pauv 12-hli upside tej zaum

Muab cov nyiaj faib tawm

Tuav los ntawm

Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

CA: BIR Canada

88%

6.63

9.78

48%

0.60%

XEG

Tourmaline Oil Corp.

CA: TSO Canada

100%

45.59

63.40

39%

1.58%

XEG

Parex Resources Inc.

CA: PXT Canada

100%

26.85

36.73

37%

1.94%

XEG

ARC Resources Ltd liab.

CA: ARX Canada

100%

14.49

19.42

34%

2.76%

XEG

Whitecap Resources Inc.

CA: WCP Canada

93%

9.02

11.69

30%

2.99%

XEG

Enerplus Corporation

ERF Canada

85%

14.77

19.07

29%

1.10%

XEG

Secure Energy Services Inc.

SES Canada

100%

6.12

7.81

28%

0.49%

XEG

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.

CA: TVE Canada

85%

4.90

6.25

28%

2.03%

XEG

Freehold Royalties Ltd.

CA: FRU Canada

87%

13.30

16.60

25%

5.41%

XEG

Cenovus Zog Inc.

CVE Canada

100%

19.09

23.29

22%

0.73%

IXC, XEG

Santos Limited

UA: STO Australia

88%

7.50

8.90

19%

1.95%

IXC

Plhaub PLC

UK: SHEL United Kingdom

80%

20.28

23.87

18%

3.25%

IXC

Diamondback Energy, Inc.

FANG United States

85%

128.88

144.36

12%

1.55%

XLE, IXC

ConocoPhillips

COP United States

86%

92.95

102.25

10%

1.98%

XLE, IXC

Cov Tuam Txhab Ntuj Pioneer Natural Company

PXD United States

82%

221.82

241.53

9%

3.08%

XLE, IXC

Schlumberger NWS

SLB United States

90%

39.40

42.66

8%

1.27%

XLE, IXC

Lub Tuam Txhab Valero Energy Corp.

VLO United States

81%

88.84

94.41

6%

4.41%

XLE, IXC

EOG Resources, Inc.

EOG United States

82%

113.31

118.03

4%

2.65%

XLE, IXC

Source: FactSet

Raws li ib txwm muaj, ua koj tus kheej kev tshawb fawb thiab tsim koj tus kheej cov kev xav txog cov kev nqis peev twg, txawm tias los ntawm ETFs lossis lwm cov nyiaj los yog kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov thiab / lossis cov khoom lag luam ib leeg, phim koj lub hom phiaj peev.

Nco tsis tau: Cov 15 cov khoom lag luam no tau nce 100% lossis ntau dua thaum muaj kev sib kis, tab sis txij li ntawd lawv tau raug tsoo. Tam sim no nws puas yog lub sijhawm yuav khoom?

Plus: 5 yog vim li cas thiaj yuav lub dips thaum kev nce nqi ntshai ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab hauv khw lag luam

Thiab: Netflix vs. Facebook: Dab tsi yog cov khoom lag luam zoo dua tom qab cov nyiaj tau los poob siab?

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-is-the-hottest-sector-and-wall-street-analysts-see-upside-of-up-to-48-for-favored-stocks- 11644584875?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo