'Tsis yog lub sijhawm yuav': S&P 500 tawm 'zoo tshaj plaws' nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo rau kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 'qhuav' kev ua kua

BofA, uas tau kwv yees S&P 500
SPX,
-2.00%
yuav pom $ 200 hauv cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ib feem hauv 2023, hais tias "tam sim no tsis yog lub sijhawm los yuav cov khoom lag luam (neeg coob coob)." Tab sis cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias "kev hloov pauv hauv cov nyiaj tau los yuav tsum tsav lub sijhawm nyob rau hauv, thiab sab nraud ntawm qhov ntsuas."

"Peb yuav tau tawm ntawm qhov zoo tshaj plaws S&P EPS era, tab sis peb muaj peev xwm nkag mus rau cov khoom lag luam zoo tshaj plaws hauv peb txoj haujlwm," lawv hais. "Peb pom zoo kom nqis peev hauv cov peev txheej tab sis xaiv."

Cov kws tshaj lij tau hloov lawv txoj kev xav ntawm cov khoom lag luam kom hnyav dhau los ntawm qhov hnyav, thaum tsiv cov khoom siv mus rau kev lag luam los ntawm qhov hnyav. Lawv kuj tau hloov cov kev pabcuam kev sib txuas lus mus txog qhov hnyav ntawm kev lag luam, los ntawm qhov hnyav, raws li Facebook niam txiv Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
-0.46%
cov kev pab cuam yuav khoom rov qab txo qis qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm lub sijhawm, daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia. 

Nyeem: Meta Tshuag spikes ze li ntawm 20% raws li tus nqi txiav thiab $ 40 billion rau cov tub ua lag luam cuam tshuam cov nyiaj tau los tsis nco

S&P 500, qhov ntsuas ntawm cov khoom lag luam loj hauv Asmeskas, tau nce ntau dua 4% rau xyoo no raws li hnub Tuesday yav tav su kev lag luam. Kev lag luam kev sib txuas lus-kev pabcuam kev lag luam tau nce yuav luag 11% xyoo rau hnub tim, thaum cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau nce ib ncig 3% thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob poob qis yuav luag 5%, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos. 

BofA cov kws tshaj lij tau sau tias "Peb nyiam cov peev txheej uas tsis muaj peev txheej," Cov nyiaj txiag, cov neeg tsim vaj tsev, cov khoom siv thiab cov fossil fuels yog thaj chaw ntawm kev lag luam uas tau " tshaib plab ntawm peev" rau ntau tshaj kaum xyoo, thaum thev naus laus zis yog nyob ntawm cov uas tau "nyiam nyiaj pub dawb, ua kom muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm S&P 500."

"Bloated kev loj hlob sectors tseem yuav tsum tau rationalize peev tom qab overbuild," lawv hais. "Deflating lub txhab nyiaj txiag npuas yuav tsis ua siab zoo rau cov khoom lag luam zoo thiab ntev ntev."  

'Dried li' liquidity

"Peb qhov peev txheej ntawm cov dej tau qhuav qhuav," BofA cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias, taw qhia txog qhov kawg ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov kev pab cuam kom muaj nuj nqis uas pom thaum muaj kev sib kis, nrog rau kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag thiab kev lag luam. Fed tau yuav daim ntawv cog lus, suav nrog US Treasurys, nyob rau hauv ntau qhov kev daws teeb meem. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tam sim no nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm hu ua kom muaj nuj nqis nruj, tso cai rau kev tuav pov hwm kom khiav tawm ntawm nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj.

"Ob tus neeg yuav khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom lag luam - Tuam Tshoj thiab Fed - tau ua tiav," cov kws tshaj lij tau sau tseg, thaum kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag yog "tsis zoo li." Ntawm cov nyiaj txiag pem hauv ntej, cov kws tshaj lij tau hais txog qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm "gridlock" hauv Congress nrog rau "kev tsis txaus hawks 'kev xaiv nuclear - siv cov nuj nqis qab nthab los yuam kev siv nyiaj." Thiab tam sim no cov tuam txhab tau "txo txoj siv sia," lawv hais tias, nrog kev tawm haujlwm pom hauv qee thaj chaw. 

Saib: 'Nws nyob ntawm seb ze li cas peb mus': Kev lag luam kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb yuav yog US teeters mus rau lub neej ntawd, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam hais

Cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias lawv cov EPS kev kwv yees rau S&P 500 xyoo no yog raws li "qhov muag muag muag los ntawm cov tuam txhab 'nimble margin preservation, lub voj voog capex, thiab cov neeg siv khoom muaj zog" nyob rau hauv lub voj voog ntev dua los ntawm Fed. Fed tau nce cov paj laum los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi siab, uas ua rau muaj kev nce nyiaj hauv cov nyiaj tau los uas xyoo tas los ua rau muaj kev ncaj ncees, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev loj hlob thiab cov khoom lag luam.

Nyeem: Kev lag luam puas yuav slam lub khw lag luam? Ntawm no yog 3 'kev tsaws' xwm txheej raws li Fed ua rau kev sib ntaus sib tua.

Cov tawm los rau 10-xyoo Txhab Nyiaj Sau Nyiaj
TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.956%
tau nce txog 14 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus Tuesday yav tav su ntawm ib ncig ntawm 3.96%, FactSet cov ntaub ntawv qhia, thaum kawg kos. Treasury bond yields thiab cov nqi txav mus rau qhov sib txawv.

Lub caij no, BofA muaj lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg ntawm 4,000 rau S&P 500.

Kev lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau ua lag luam qis dua hnub Tuesday yav tav su, nrog S&P 500 zawv zawg 1.9% mus rau thaj tsam 4,003, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-2.50%
tau nqis 2.2% thaum Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-2.06%
poob 1.9% ntawm qhov nce hauv Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag.

Tsis tas li ntawd saib: Yuav lub khw muag khoom poob? Vim li cas 'nyiaj ntsuab' yielding ntau dua li nws muaj txij li xyoo 2007 tuaj yeem ua vaj ntxwv.