Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell ua tim khawv ua ntej US Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee lub rooj sib hais ntawm "Lub Semiennual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress" ntawm Capitol Hill hauv Washington, Lub Peb Hlis 7, 2023.
Kevin Lamarque | Xov Xwm Reuters
cov Tsoomfwv Meskas Kev Ruaj Ntseg tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam nws lub voj voog ntawm cov paj laum nce mus txog thaum lub teb chaws nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis, raws li TS Lombard Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Tebchaws Meskas Steven Blitz.
"Tsis muaj kev tawm ntawm qhov no mus txog thaum nws [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] tsim kev lag luam poob qis, 'txog kev poob haujlwm nce, thiab yog thaum Fed tus nqi yuav tsum tsis txhob raug hiked," Blitz hais rau CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" hnub Wednesday.
Nws hais ntxiv tias Fed tsis muaj qhov pom tseeb ntawm lub qab nthab ntawm cov paj laum nce thaum tsis muaj kev lag luam qeeb.
"Lawv tsis paub qhov twg tus nqi siab tshaj plaws yog, vim lawv tsis muaj lub tswv yim tias qhov twg nyiaj txiag poob qis yam tsis muaj kev lag luam."
Powell hais rau cov neeg tsim cai lij choj Hnub Tuesday tias cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam muaj zog tshaj li qhov kev cia siab nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no qhia tias "qhov kawg ntawm cov paj laum zoo li yuav siab dua li qhov kev cia siab yav dhau los," raws li lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab zoo li rub nyiaj txiag rov qab los rau hauv ntiaj teb.
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Thawj Tswj Hwm lub rooj sib tham txog nyiaj txiag tom ntej ntawm Lub Peb Hlis 21 thiab 22 yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, nrog cov tub ua lag luam saib xyuas seb cov neeg tsim cai tau xaiv rau kev nce nqi ntawm 25 lossis 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus.
Kev lag luam kev cia siab rau lub davhlau ya nyob twg Fed cov nyiaj tau los nyob ib puag ncig 5.1% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, tab sis tau nce tsis tu ncua. Goldman Sachs tau nqa nws cov nqi davhlau ya nyob twg lub hom phiaj kwv yees mus rau 5.5-5.75% rau hnub Tuesday hauv qhov pom ntawm Powell cov lus pov thawj, raws li cov nqi lag luam tam sim no raws li CME Group cov ntaub ntawv.
Bond yields spiked, thiab US Tshuag lag luam muag tawm sharply nyob rau sab nraum qab ntawm Powell cov lus, nrog lub Dow kaw ze li ntawm 575 cov ntsiab lus qis dua thiab tig tsis zoo rau 2023. Lub S&P 500 swb 1.53% kom kaw hauv qab tus yuam sij 4,000 qhov pib, thiab cov Nasdaq Composite poob 1.25%
"Yuav muaj kev lag luam poob qis, thiab Fed yuav thawb lub ntsiab lus thiab lawv yuav tau txais cov nyiaj poob haujlwm tsawg kawg yog 4.5%, hauv kuv qhov kev kwv yees nws zaum kawg tau nce siab txog 5.5%, "Blitz hais.
Nws tau sau tseg tias muaj "rumblings" ntawm kev lag luam qeeb nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntawm kev poob haujlwm hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag thiab thev naus laus zis thiab kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob. Nrog rau qhov tsis muaj zog hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam, Blitz tau hais tias "cov cuab yeej cuab tam thiab qhov pib ntawm lub peev xwm rau kev qiv nyiaj," hauv cov tsev txhab nyiaj rub rov qab qiv, tuaj yeem ua tiav.
"Txawm tias koj tau txais kev lag luam poob qis ib nrab xyoo thiab tus nqi siab tshaj yog 5.5% lossis muaj lub zog txaus, lub Ib Hlis tus lej yog lawm, thiab Fed txuas ntxiv mus thiab yog tias lawv txuas ntxiv mus, kuv twv yog tias Fed yuav nce. rau 6.5% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ua ntej txhua yam pib qeeb thiab thim rov qab, "nws hais.
"Yog li hais txog cov khoom muaj nqis pheej hmoo, nws tsis yog lo lus nug ntawm seb, nws yog lo lus nug tiag tiag ntawm thaum twg, thiab qhov ntev npaum li cas mus, tus nqi siab dua yuav tsum tau mus."
cov Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj tus nqi ntsuas tau nce 0.5% lub hli-rau-hli Raws li kev nce chaw nyob, cov nqi roj thiab roj tau coj lawv tus xov tooj rau cov neeg siv khoom, qhia txog qhov muaj peev xwm thim rov qab ntawm kev nce nqi qis uas pom nyob rau xyoo 2022.
cov kev lag luam ua lag luam tseem kub kub pib lub xyoo, nrog 517,000 txoj haujlwm ntxiv nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thiab cov neeg poob haujlwm poob qis dua 53 xyoos.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm Lub Ob Hlis yog los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm rau hnub Friday thiab Lub Ob Hlis CPI nyeem ntawv tau teem sijhawm rau hnub Tuesday.
Hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb tshaj tawm nws qhov kev nce ntxiv rau qhov kev kwv yees tus nqi davhlau ya nyob twg, Goldman Sachs tau hais tias nws cia siab tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm Lub Peb Hlis Cov Ntsiab Lus Txog Kev Lag Luam yuav nce los ntawm 50 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau 5.5-5.75% tsis hais seb FOMC opts rau 25 lossis 50. cov ntsiab lus hauv paus.
Lub Phab Ntsa Street loj tseem cia siab tias cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej lub Peb Hlis lub rooj sib tham yuav "sib xyaw tab sis ruaj khov ntawm net," nrog JOLTS txoj haujlwm qhib poob los ntawm 800,000 los muab kev lees paub tias tus nqi nce mus ua haujlwm, nrog rau qhov kev pom zoo saum toj saud rau 250,000 nyiaj hli nce. tab sis qhov muag muag 0.3% nce hauv cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ib teev.
Goldman kuj tau kwv yees qhov ruaj khov 0.45% txhua hli nce hauv cov tub ntxhais CPI thaum Lub Ob Hlis, thiab hais tias kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yuav tsim "qee qhov kev pheej hmoo uas FOMC tuaj yeem nce siab los ntawm 50bp hauv lub Peb Hlis tsis yog 25bp."
"Lub hli tsis ntev los no peb tau sib cav tias qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm GDP kev loj hlob los ntawm xyoo tas los ntawm kev siv nyiaj txiag thiab nyiaj txiag txoj cai nruj yog ploj mus, tsis loj hlob, thiab qhov no txhais tau hais tias qhov kev pheej hmoo tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam yog kev rov ua dua ntxov ntxov, tsis yog kev lag luam uas yuav tshwm sim," Goldman economists hais tias.
"Lub asthiv dhau los peb tau sau tseg tias kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tshwj xeeb ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo siab rau kev loj hlob uas, yog tias pom tau, tuaj yeem ua rau FOMC nce siab los ntawm ntau tshaj qhov xav tau tam sim no txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm taug qab.”
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/no-exit-ramp-for-feds-powell-until-he-creates-a-recession-economist-says.html