Kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv ntau lub teb chaws tsim kho raws li cov paj laum nce siab thawb cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj mus rau ntau xyoo siab. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus inversion tau ua rau muaj kev ntshai ntawm kev lag luam loj thoob ntiaj teb. Hauv kev kwv yees kev lag luam vaj tsev tom ntej no, kuv yuav saib seb qhov kev lag luam puas yuav sib tsoo xyoo 2023.
Lub xeev ntawm lub tsev lag luam
Kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv ntau lub teb chaws nyiam cov United States, Australia, thiab UK tau nthuav dav thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw raws li cov paj laum poob rau cov ntaub ntawv qis. Hauv UK, cov nqi tsev tau dhia raws li tsoomfwv tau muab kev txhawb siab ntau ntxiv, suav nrog cov ntawv pov thawj rau cov neeg yuav tsev tshiab.
Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?
Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.
Cov nqi tsev kuj tau nce ntxiv vim cov neeg feem coob nyob hauv tsev thiab khaws cov nyiaj khaws tseg uas lawv tau xa mus them rau cov nyiaj tso cia. Av vaj tse cov nqi tau nce raws li tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev xws li ntoo dhia.
Xyoo no, txawm li cas los xij, qhov xwm txheej tau hloov pauv thiab kev lag luam khoom vaj khoom tsev tau rov qab los. Cov ntaub ntawv luam tawm lub lim tiam no los ntawm Halifax tau pom tias UK cov nqi tsev poob qis ntawm qhov nrawm tshaj plaws hauv 14 xyoo. Raws li peb tau sau hauv no tsab xov xwm, Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau cia siab tias qhov xwm txheej tseem yuav hnyav zuj zus ntxiv raws li UK tau teeb tsa nyob rau hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam mus ntev.
Hauv Tebchaws Meskas, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias cov nqi tsev yuav poob 12% los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws thiab qib qis tshaj. Cov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb hauv kev ua lag luam vaj tsev tau muaj zog tsis ntev los no, suav nrog cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom hauv tsev tshiab thiab tam sim no.
Tib qhov xwm txheej yog unraveling hauv Australia. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias cov nqi tsev yuav poob los ntawm 16% ntawm qhov siab tshaj mus rau hauv qab.
Yog li ntawd, cov nqi sib koom ntawm cov tsev tsim vaj tsev nyob hauv ntau lub tebchaws tau poob qis. Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv UK, shares ntawm Persimmon tau poob los ntawm ntau tshaj 56% los ntawm lawv cov qib siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv 2021. Ib yam li ntawd, lwm cov tsev tsim. Raws li qhia hauv qab no, cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab xws li Lennar, DR Horton, thiab Taylor Wimpey tau poob qis.
Daim ntawv qhia vaj tsev los ntawm TradingView
Kev ua lag luam vaj tsev poob kev kwv yees
Cov neeg feem coob koom nrog kev sib tsoo vaj tse nrog qhov tshwm sim hauv 2008/9. Thaum lub sijhawm, cov nqi tsev poob qis ntawm qhov nrawm tshaj plaws ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hauv lub sijhawm luv. Cov tsev txhab nyiaj tau kaw ntau txhiab lub tsev.
Kev sib tsoo zoo sib xws yuav tsis tshwm sim hauv 2023 vim tias muaj xwm txheej sib txawv heev. Thaum lub sij hawm, qhov kev sib tsoo yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev nce subprime qiv los ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj. Hauv qhov no, lawv txuas ntxiv trillions nyiaj rau cov neeg uas tsis tuaj yeem them rov qab. Yog li ntawd, kev ua lag luam poob qis raws li tus naj npawb ntawm kev ua txhaum cai tau nce.
Niaj hnub no, kev qiv nyiaj subprime tau poob qis vim tias cov tuam txhab loj tau tawm ntawm kev lag luam qiv nyiaj ntau. Hloov chaw, qhov kev poob qis no yog vim kev nce nqi nce nqi thiab nqi tsev qiv nyiaj. Nws kuj yog ib feem ntawm lub boom thiab bust voj voog.
Yog li ntawd, thaum cov nqi tsev yuav poob rau xyoo 2023, kuv cia siab tias yuav tsis muaj kev sib kis loj hauv cov vaj tsev. Hauv no daim ntawv qhia, peb tau sau tseg tias cov nqi tsev yuav zoo li poob qis dua li qhov xav tau vim tias qhov kev thov tseem nce siab.
Tau qhov twg los: https://invezz.com/news/2022/12/08/next-housing-market-crash-prediction-for-2023/