Ua ntej tshaj tawm cov luam yeeb hauv kev ua koob tsheej ntawm kev yug me nyuam nyuj ua lag luam rau Nasdaq Composite, cov tub ua lag luam yuav xav rov qab saib keeb kwm.
Tseeb, qhov ntsuas thev naus laus zis hnyav tau xaus rau hnub Wednesday nce 20.8% los ntawm nws 2022 kaw qis ntawm 10,646.10 teem rau Lub Rau Hli 16. Ib qho nce ntawm 20% los ntawm qhov tsis ntev los no tom qab ib qho zuj zus mus rau hauv lub lag luam dais yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau kev tshaj tawm qhov pib ntawm lub lag luam bull tshiab. Skeptics, txawm li cas los xij, taw qhia tias Nasdaq tau xa ntau dua li ob peb lub taub hau cuav yav dhau los.
Hedge-fund manager Michael Burry, ua nto moo nyob rau hauv phau ntawv, "The Big Short," tom qab ua tiav kev kwv yees qhov kev puas tsuaj ntawm lub tsev lag luam hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, xav tsis thoob hauv Twitter: "Nasdaq lub khw muag nyuj vim tias nws nce 20% tawm ntawm nws. qis? Leej twg ua cov khoom no?
Nyob rau hauv txij li-nrhiav tweet, nws tau sau tseg tias, "Tom qab 2000, Nasdaq tau ua li ntawd 7 zaug thaum nws poob 78% rau nws 2002 qis." (Burry feem ntau tshem tawm tweets tom qab lub sijhawm luv luv.)
Qhov tseeb tiag, Nasdaq pom peb qhov kev sib tw ntawm 40% lossis ntau dua nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev lag luam dais uas ua raws li dot-com tawg, tsis muaj ib qho twg uas tau cim qhov pib ntawm lub sijhawm ntev, Ross Mayfield, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam kev lag luam ntawm Baird Private Wealth Management, hais rau MarketWatch hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj.
Mayfield tau hais tias "Peb txoj kab tseem ceeb rau cov neeg siv khoom yog tias cov khoom lag luam dais no tuaj yeem ntxhov siab tab sis lawv muaj ntau heev," Mayfield hais.
Xws li yog qhov txaus ntshai hauv kev sim siv 20% kev ntsuas raws li txoj cai-ntawm-tus ntiv tes xoo los tshaj tawm lub khw muag nyuj. Nyob rau hauv qee txoj kev, kev pib ntawm lub lag luam bull feem ntau tsuas yog siv lead ua-ntshiab hauv kev rov qab los, tsis zoo li qhov kev sib tw ntawm kev txiav txim siab pib kev lag luam. Thaum lub quarter sib law liag ntawm kev cog lus tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws feem ntau tau piav qhia tias yog "kev lag luam" kev lag luam, nws tsis yog cov txheej txheem siv los ntawm National Bureau of Economic Research hauv kev sib tham txog kev lag luam.
Dhau li ntawm qhov tsis txaus siab dhau los siv 20% qhov pib los tshaj tawm ib tug nyuj, Mayfield tau hais tias lwm tus yam ntxwv ntawm Nasdaq qhov kev tawm tsam - nws qhov dav, qhov ntev thiab qhov loj - yog qhov nyuaj rau cov neeg nrhiav kev pom zoo hauv lub sijhawm.
Kev sib sau ua lag luam dav dav tau ua tau zoo los ntawm kev coj noj coj ua, thiab qhov dav tau txhim kho. Saib ntawm qhov loj-cap benchmark S&P 500, nyob ib ncig ntawm 85% ntawm Nasdaq Cheebtsam yog trading saum lawv 50-hnub mus nruab nrab. Qhov ntawd yog khoom, tab sis kev lag luam bull feem ntau pom ib daim duab saum toj no 90%, Mayfield tau hais.
Lub caij no, cov khoom lag luam semiconductor tau poob qis hauv cov kev sib tham tsis ntev los no tom qab ceeb toom los ntawm kev lag luam hnyav Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
thiab Micron Technology
MU,
Qhov ntawd yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm Nasdaq thiab tuaj yeem sawv cev rau qhov tsis zoo, nws hais.
Thiab thaum kawg, qhov nce tsuas yog tseem tsis tau dhau mus ntev txaus los ua kom muaj kev ntseeg siab hauv kev ua lag luam nyuj, Mayfield tau hais tias, ceeb toom tias kev lag luam kev sib tw ua lag luam yav dhau los tau kav ntev li 60 txog 80 mus rau 100 hnub ua ntej tig qis.
Qhov ntawd tsis yog hais tias yuav yog qhov xwm txheej no nyob ib puag ncig, tab sis yog tias ib tus xav hu rau lub khw muag nyuj ntawm qhov loj thiab lub sijhawm ib leeg, "nws yuav tsum tau ua kom ntseeg tau ntau dua li tsuas yog zuam tshaj 20% cim hauv rau lossis ntau lub lis piam, "Mayfield hais.
Mark Hulbert: Qhov 20% Nasdaq nce no tsis tau txhais hais tias peb nyob hauv lub khw muag nyuj tshiab
Nasdaq poob 0.6% rau hnub Thursday thiab tseem qis dua 20% los ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv kaw thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis. S&P 500
SPX,
tseem nyob hauv lub lag luam dais tab sis tau dhia ze li ntawm 15% los ntawm nws qhov 2022 qis qis rau lub Rau Hli 16, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
tau skirted ib dais lag luam poob.
Thaum lub rooj txiav txim txiav txim siab seb Nasdaq yog nyob rau hauv ib tug nyuj tshiab los yog tsuas yog ib tug dais-kev ua lag luam bounce, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum saib kom hloov mus rau cov khoom zoo dua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv tech thiab kev loj hlob, thaum trimming raug rau cov khoom muaj nqis qis, Mayfield hais. Lub zero-interest-tus nqi thiab hnyav liquidity ib puag ncig uas nrog rau lub xeem bull lag luam yog tsis zoo li yuav rov qab nyob rau hauv lub tom ntej no kev ua lag luam voj voog raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cuam tshuam nrog tom qab ntawm kev nce nqi nce, uas txhais tau tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau xaiv ntau dua thaum sim ua. xaiv cov khoom lag luam yeej.
"Peb yeej tsis poob qis," Mayfield tau hais tias, "tab sis qhov no yog lub sijhawm zoo los hloov kho kom zoo nrog qhov peb xav tias tseem yuav nyuaj rau 6 txog 12 lub hlis ua ntej nrog qhov kev nce nqi, Fed tseem ua dab tsi" thiab txuas ntxiv geopolitical tsis paub tseeb ntawm lub qab ntug.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-nasdaq-stocks-in-a-bull-market-a-history-of-head-fakes-says-slow-your-roll-11660254224?siteid= yhoof2&yptr=yahoo