NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj siab thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag ntshai yog ua rau cov nqi tsev raug mob, yog li cia siab tias kev loj hlob yuav tiaj tus xyoo no, ib tus kws tshaj lij hais.
"Peb qhov kev kwv yees yog rau kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi hauv tsev mus txuas ntxiv," Joel Kan, tus lwm thawj coj thiab tus thawj coj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag, tau hais rau hnub Sunday thaum lub koom haum lub rooj sib tham txhua xyoo hauv Nashville, Tenn.
Tus nqi tsev twb pib nruab nrab. Raws li Case-Shiller, tus nqi tsev poob lub hli dhau ib hlis txij lub Rau Hli mus txog Lub Xya Hli thawj zaug hauv 20 xyoo. Cov naj npawb tshiab kawg, uas yuav yog rau lub Yim Hli, yuav tshaj tawm rau hnub Tuesday sawv ntxov.
Nrog kev lag luam poob qis hauv daim npav, nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nyob ze lossis siab dua 7%, "peb twb pom qhov kev thim rov qab zoo nkauj hauv kev thov vaj tsev," Kan hais.
Tsis tas li ntawd saib: Cov pab pawg kev lag luam qiv nyiaj kwv yees kev lag luam kev lag luam xyoo tom ntej, cia siab tias cov nqi qiv nyiaj yuav rov qab los ntawm 7%
Qhov 30-xyoo ruaj tus nqi nruab nrab 6.94% lub lim tiam dhau los piv rau 3.85% ib xyoos dhau los. MBA kuj tseem cia siab tias cov nqi yuav nqis los rau 5.4% thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tom ntej.
Yog li cia siab tias lub teb chaws-tus nqi loj hlob hauv tsev yuav "tso tawm" hauv 2023 thiab 2024, nws hais. Qhov no yuav yog "kab nyiaj" rau qee qhov, Kan ntxiv, vim nws coj cov nqi tsev rov qab mus rau ntau "qib tsim nyog."
Kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi hauv tsev yuav tsum tso cai rau cov tsev neeg kom tau txais, raws li cov nyiaj ua haujlwm thiab kev txuag nyiaj, kom them cov tsev uas tam sim no kim heev.
Tab sis nws kuj tau ceeb toom tias qee lub khw yuav pom cov nqi tsev poob. Peb twb pom cov nqi tsev poob hauv qee lub khw, los ntawm cov kab mob kis thoob qhov txhia chaw zoo li Austin thiab Phoenix rau paub kim kim San Francisco Bay Area.
Txawm li cas los xij, txawm tias tus nqi poob qis, tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav muaj qhov nce ntawm cov khoom muag raws li tib neeg zaum ntawm lawv cov nqi qiv qis qis uas lawv yuav tsis zoo siab dua yav tom ntej.
Raws li Lub Rau Hli cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Nyiaj Txiag Lub Chaw Haujlwm, ze li ib feem peb ntawm cov tswv tsev muaj cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tsawg dua lossis sib npaug li 3%. Thiab feem coob ntawm cov tswv - 93% - muaj tus nqi tsawg dua 6%.
Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, cov khoom yuav tsum nruj heev.
Cov neeg muag khoom tau hais tias yog "tawm tsam”Thiab tsis muag lawv lub tsev li lawv pom lwm tus yuam kom txiav cov nqi rau woo buyers. Cov neeg tsim khoom kuj tau txais spooked, signaling lub hom phiaj kom qeeb kev tsim kho tshiab.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev thov vaj tse yuav tsum rov qab los thaum kawg, vim tias muaj ntau tus neeg uas yuav xav tau ib lub tsev sai sai uas lawv muaj.
MBA's Kan tau kwv yees tias muaj 50 lab tus tib neeg nyob rau hauv 28-rau-38 hnub nyoog cov pej xeem, uas qee tus - lossis ntau - yuav muaj peev xwm los ua cov tswv tsev yav tom ntej.
Rau cov hnub nyoog qis dua 35 xyoos, tus tswv tsev tsuas yog 39%, Kan hais tias, thaum qhov sib faib nce rau cov neeg muaj hnub nyoog 35 txog 44, txog 61%.
Yog li cov neeg muaj hnub nyoog, "peb muaj kev ntseeg ncaj ncees yog tias peb ua raws li cov qauv no, koj yuav pom muaj kev txhawb nqa pej xeem ntawm kev xav tau vaj tsev nyob rau ntau xyoo," Kan hais.
Tau txais kev xav ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev? Sau rau MarketWatch reporter Aarthi Swaminathan ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-bankers-forecast-rates-to-drop-to-5-4-in-2023-heres-what-that-means-for-home-prices-11666571989?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo