(Bloomberg) - Qhov tseeb bounce hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam yog kev lag luam dais thiab ntau qhov kev poob qis tom ntej, raws li Morgan Stanley cov kws tshaj lij.
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"Nrog rau kev ntsuas tam sim no zoo nkauj dua, kev lag luam sib luag yog li oversold thiab cov nqi uas muaj peev xwm ruaj khov qis dua 3%, cov khoom lag luam zoo li tau pib dua lwm cov khoom lag luam dais," cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Michael Wilson tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv rau hnub Monday. "Tom qab ntawd, peb tseem ntseeg siab tias tus nqi qis tseem nyob tom ntej."
NYEEM: $ 11 Trillion thiab suav: Ntiaj teb Tshuag poob qis yuav tsis dhau
S&P 500 tau nce siab rau hnub Friday tom qab ze li ntawm 20% poob los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws vim tias cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam raug ntxias los ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo dua. Tab sis tus qauv ntsuas tseem tau cim nws lub lim tiam thib rau hauv xim liab - qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2011- raws li cov tub ua lag luam txhawj xeeb txog kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv thiab cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis.
Txawm hais tias qee tus kws tshaj lij ntseeg tias kev muag khoom hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas muaj peev xwm mus txog hauv pem teb, Wilson tseem yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, hais tias S&P 500 tseem tsis tau them nqi tag nrho rau qhov kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam nyiaj tau los thiab kev lag luam macroeconomic indicators.
Txawm hais tias nws lub hauv paus rooj plaub tsis pom qhov kev lag luam poob qis, Wilson sau tseg tias "kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis tau nce mus txog qhov tseem ceeb. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog lwm qhov laj thawj vim li cas qhov kev pheej hmoo pheej hmoo pheej hmoo tsawg dhau, thiab cov khoom lag luam tseem muaj nqi dhau ntawm peb qhov kev xav. "
Nws cia siab tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem poob mus rau qis li 3,400 cov ntsiab lus - kwv yees li 16% qis dua qib tam sim no - uas yog qhov kev nqis peev thiab kev txhawb nqa, nws hais. Nws cia siab tias qhov ntsuas ntsuas yuav nce mus rau 3,900 cov ntsiab lus ntsuas los ntawm lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav tom ntej, thaum hais tias kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb yuav txuas ntxiv mus.
Wilson kuj tseem muaj kev tiv thaiv kev tsis ncaj ncees los ntawm kev saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv ntau dhau, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab vaj tsev thiab cov neeg siv khoom hnyav tsis txaus ntseeg thiab cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis.
Morgan Stanley tsis yog ib leeg hauv nws qhov kev xav qaub. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm David Kostin txiav lawv lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg rau S&P 500 rau hnub Friday rau 4,300 los ntawm 4,700 cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov paj laum siab dua thiab kev loj hlob qeeb.
Lawv qhov kev pom zoo tshiab hauv paus kwv yees tsis muaj kev lag luam poob qis thiab kwv yees US tus nqi piv rau tus nqi-rau-nyiaj tau los yuav xaus rau lub xyoo tsis hloov ntawm 17. Ib qho kev poob qis, lawv hais tias, yuav pom qhov ntsuas poob los ntawm 11% rau 3,600 raws li P / E. poob rau 15 zaug.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-sees-p-080416935.html