(Bloomberg) - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, tus paub zoo txog kev lag luam lag luam tsis ntseeg uas raug kwv yees xyoo no poob qis, ntseeg tias kev lag luam dais hauv Asmeskas cov peev txheej yuav xaus sai dua li cov tub ua lag luam xav.
Feem ntau Nyeem los ntawm Bloomberg
"Peb xav tias thaum kawg lub lag luam dais yuav dhau qee zaum hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg," Wilson tau hais hauv kev xam phaj ntawm Bloomberg TV. “Txhua yam no yuav raug kho dua. Kuv xav kom meej meej, yog tias kev lag luam pib ua lag luam tawm dua thiab S&P 500 tshuab los ntawm 3,650 ntawm qhov kev poob qis, peb yuav poob qis dua. "
Wilson, uas yog tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam zoo tshaj plaws hauv kev tshawb fawb Institutional Investor tshiab, tau hais tias 19% poob qis hauv S&P 500 Index xyoo no tau tso nws qhov kev ntsuam xyuas kev txhawb nqa ntawm nws 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab ntawm ib ncig ntawm 3,600, uas tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev tshaj lij. rov qab los. S&P 500 tau sib sau ua ke ze li ntawm 6% txij thaum Lub Kaum Hli 12, thaum nws kaw qis tshaj txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2020.
Nyuam qhuav pib lub lim tiam no, Wilson rov hais dua tias US cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem zom tau ntau dua li cov tub ua lag luam hloov mus rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag thiab cov paj laum qis. Lub lim tiam dhau los, nws tau sau ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem nce mus rau 4,150, uas thaum lub sijhawm nws yog 200-hnub txav nruab nrab, hauv kev lag luam dais.
Txawm li cas los xij, nws tau cia siab tias yuav muaj mob ntxiv rau qhov sib npaug los ntawm ib nrab ntawm 2023, thiab Morgan Stanley tau kwv yees tias S&P 500 yuav kaw ntawm 3,900 thaum Lub Rau Hli tom ntej, raws li Bloomberg qhov kev tshawb fawb tshiab tau ua nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Kaum Hli. Thaum kawg, nws pom cov txiaj ntsig dav dav hauv qab ntawm 3,000-3,200.
Wilson tau hais tias "Peb tej zaum yuav poob qis dua li feem ntau rau qhov kev pom zoo xyoo tom ntej," Wilson tau hais. "Tab sis peb xav tias qhov kev sib tw tactical no yuav loj txaus los sim thiab pivot thiab pauv nws."
Tsis yog txhua tus kws tshaj lij tau cia siab tias Asmeskas cov peev txheej yuav qis dua sai sai. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cov kws tshaj lij tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Tuesday tias cov xwm txheej rau lub trough tseem tsis tau pom dua vim tias cov khoom lag luam tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam txog qhov kev nce siab hauv cov txiaj ntsig tiag tiag thiab qhov txawv ntawm kev lag luam poob qis.
Txawm hais tias qee qhov ntawm Wall Street cov bulls ardent feem ntau tig qaub rau ntawm kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees. Hnub Monday, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Marko Kolanovic, uas yog Wall Street lub suab zoo tshaj plaws rau xyoo no, tau hais tias US cov khoom lag luam tau nce qib rau xyoo kawg, tab sis ntxiv tias nws xav tias 2023 yuav yog "kev nyuaj siab dua cov nyiaj tau los. piv rau cov kev cia siab tam sim no. "
Lub lim tiam dhau los, Kolanovic tau txiav qhov loj ntawm nws qhov sib npaug ntawm qhov hnyav hnyav thiab daim ntawv cog lus qis qis, hais txog kev pheej hmoo ntxiv los ntawm cov cai hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab thiab thaj chaw thaj chaw. Nyuam qhuav pib lub hlis no, nws tau hais tias qhov kev pheej hmoo no yuav ua rau lub txhab nyiaj xyoo tas los S&P 500 lub hom phiaj ntawm 4,800 muaj kev pheej hmoo.
- Nrog kev pab los ntawm John McCorry, Farah Elbahrawy, Abhishek Vishnoi thiab Sagarika Jaisinghani.
(Hloov kho tshiab rau nqe plaub txog kaum nqe lus.)
Feem ntau Nyeem los ntawm Bloomberg Businessweek
© 2022 Bloomberg LP
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-says-bear-132215028.html