cov S&P 500 qhov ntsuas tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau nws qhov kev sib kis ua ntej 3,400 qib hauv lub hlis tom ntej uas txhais mus rau lwm qhov 15% poob qis los ntawm qhov no, ceeb toom tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Morgan Stanley rau hnub Monday.
Tsis txhob dag los ntawm dais lag luam rally
Michael Wilson dubs qhov bounce tsis ntev los no (kwv yees li 4.0%) hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam yog "dais kev lag luam rally" thiab hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum txhawb kev mob ntxiv tom ntej vim kev nce nqi thiab kev txwv tsis pub muaj qhov tseem ceeb. Hauv nws daim ntawv, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais tias:
Nrog rau kev ntsuas tam sim no zoo nkauj dua, kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees yog li oversold tus nqi uas muaj peev xwm ruaj khov qis dua 3.0%, cov khoom lag luam zoo li tau pib lwm cov khoom lag luam dais. Tom qab ntawd, peb tseem muaj kev ntseeg siab tias tus nqi qis tseem nyob tom ntej.
Lub lim tiam dhau los, US Bureau of Labor Statistics tau hais Inflation sawv ntawm 8.30% nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis - ib qho kev poob qis piv rau lub hli dhau los tab sis tseem ua ntej ntawm Dow Jones kwv yees.
Yuav ua li cas taug qab ib puag ncig tam sim no?
Wilson tseem pom qhov kev lag luam tsis zoo li qhov tsis zoo, tab sis pom zoo tias qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis tau nce mus. Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam poob nthav poob 1.40% hauv thawj peb lub hlis xyoo 2022.
Qhov ntawd tsuas yog lwm qhov laj thawj vim li cas qhov kev pheej hmoo pheej hmoo pheej hmoo tsawg dhau, thiab cov khoom lag luam tseem pheej yig dua. Lub lag luam dais yuav tsis dhau mus txog thaum cov txiaj ntsig poob mus rau theem (14 - 15x) uas txo cov nyiaj tau los uas peb xav txog, lossis kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los txiav.
Nws pom zoo kom muaj kev nthuav dav ntxiv rau vaj tse, kev saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob los mus rau qhov chaw nyob tam sim no, thaum cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis thiab cov neeg siv khoom txaus siab tseem yog "tsis muaj" rau nws.
Tus ncej Morgan Stanley: SPX tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau nws qhov kev sib kis ua ntej 3,400 qib tshwm sim thawj zaug Tsam.
Tau qhov twg los: https://invezz.com/news/2022/05/17/morgan-stanley-spx-could-return-to-its-pre-pandemic-3400-level/