(Bloomberg) - Kev poob qis ntawm cov tuam txhab nyiaj tau los kwv yees tuaj yeem muab qhov tshiab tshaj plaws rau cov khoom lag luam hauv Asmeskas, uas zoo li yuav poob ntxiv ua ntej poob qis thaum lub caij khwv tau nyiaj thib ob, raws li Morgan Stanley cov kws tshaj lij.
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"Thaum tsis muaj kev poob siab zoo li kev lag luam poob qis, cov tuam txhab lag luam qeeb qeeb," cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Michael Wilson tau sau rau hauv tsab ntawv rau hnub Monday. "Lub sijhawm no yuav tsum tsis muaj qhov sib txawv, uas txhais tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem nyob ib puag ncig tam sim no kom txog rau thaum lub caij khwv nyiaj hauv lub quarter thib ob thaum cov ceg qis dua yuav pib thiab xaus."
Wilson tau nyob hauv Wall Street cov bears tseem ceeb tshaj plaws thiab raug kwv yees qhov kev lag luam tawm tshiab kawg, uas tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve hawkish yuav ua rau kev lag luam poob qis. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm muaj zog rau hnub Friday ntxiv rau cov kev txhawj xeeb no thiab coj S&P 500 mus rau nws qhov kev poob qis hauv yim lub lim tiam hauv cuaj.
Wilson kwv yees US tus qauv ntsuas yuav ua lag luam ze rau 3,400 los ntawm nruab nrab-rau-lub Yim Hli lig, cuam tshuam lwm 17% downside los ntawm nws qhov kawg kaw. Qhov loj tshaj 5% ntawm S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam tseem pauv ntawm 40% tus nqi nruab nrab rau cov qib ua ntej muaj kev sib kis piv nrog 17% rau qhov ntsuas dav dav, nws hais.
"Qhov no muaj peev xwm nthuav tawm qhov kev poob qis ib yam nkaus, qhov twg cov khoom lag luam no tuaj yeem yog khau zaum kawg kom poob ua ntej peb tawm ntawm lub lag luam dais tam sim no," tus kws tshaj lij tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv.
Nyob rau theem kev lag luam hauv Asmeskas, Wilson tau hais tias cov khoom noj khoom haus thiab cov khoom lag luam muag khoom kwv yees tau "poob" nyob rau plaub lub lis piam dhau los. Cov neeg siv khoom siv kev txiav txim siab thiab cov cuab yeej siv thev naus laus zis kuj tau pom qhov tsis muaj zog hauv kev kwv yees, thaum vaj tse tau pom qhov kev hloov kho zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau lub hli dhau los, nws hais.
Margin Squeeze
Hauv Tebchaws Europe, ib yam nkaus, kev pheej hmoo rau cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig tau loj hlob, raws li Sanford C. Bernstein tus kws tshaj lij Sarah McCarthy thiab Mark Diver, uas tau hais rau hnub Monday tias qhov loj me me yuav nyob rau ntawm lub qab ntug tshwj tsis yog cov neeg siv khoom xav tau ntau ntxiv thiab kev muag khoom tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag ntau. .
Txawm li cas los xij, tsis yog txhua tus neeg muaj pessimistic. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cov kws tshaj lij suav nrog Mislav Matejka tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov khoom lag luam, hais tias "qhov tseem ceeb txaus ntshai-qhib nqi zog rau cov khoom lag luam zoo li yuav txhim kho thaum peb mus txog ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo."
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