Morgan Stanley hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum xav txog qhov chaw nres nkoj no hauv kev lag luam cua daj cua dub tam sim no

Phab ntsa Street muaj ntau qhov kev txhawj xeeb ntawm nws tus kheej, nrog ntau tus neeg nrhiav S&P 500
SPX,
-1.72%
rov mus xyuas lub Rau Hli qis qis sai lossis tom qab. Thiab cov tuam txhab lag luam loj zoo li tsis txaus siab ua txhua yam, tshaj tawm kev siv nyiaj $ 34.3 nphom hauv plaub lub lis piam dhau los ntawm kev xaiv cov khoom lag luam los tiv thaiv kev muag khoom, qhov loj tshaj ntawm cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau 2009.

Morgan Stanley tus kws tshaj lij Vishwanath Tirupattur tau hais txog qhov nyuaj npaum li cas hnub no hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Sunday. "Nrhiav cov dej tsis zoo no rau kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam yog ib qho kev sib tw hauv ob qho tib si tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo thiab cov khoom muaj nqis pheej hmoo vim yog lub sijhawm pheej hmoo nyob rau yav dhau los thiab kev loj hlob / nyiaj tau los tom qab," tus kws tshaj lij hais.

Tab sis kuj tau muab ib lub tswv yim rau backs-tawm-the-wall investor, khwv tau ib qho chaw hauv peb hu nruab hnub. "Tawm tsam qhov teeb meem no, peb xav tias US nqis peev qib (IG) cov tuam txhab qiv nyiaj, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau sab xub ntiag ntawm qhov nkhaus (qhov 1 txog 5 xyoo), muab lwm txoj hauv kev nyab xeeb nrog qis qis rau cov tub ua lag luam tab tom nrhiav nyiaj tau los, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau. qab o ntau dua yields. "

Nyeem: Tom qab Fed's 75-basic-point tus nqi nce mus, ntawm no yog yuav ua li cas tiv thaiv koj lub hnab nyiaj thiab koj cov ntaub ntawv.

Tirupattur muab ob peb stats los thim rov qab nws hu, thawj qhov no yog lub lag luam loj, sawv ntawm $ 3 trillion hauv lub ntsej muag tus nqi thiab $ 2.87 trillion hauv kev lag luam tus nqi, raws li ICE-BAML Performance index.

"Ntawm cov nqi tam sim no, qhov nruab nrab cov txiaj ntsig yog nyob ib puag ncig 5% nrog lub sijhawm ntawm 2.64 [xyoo] thiab A3 / Baa1 credit zoo. Cov theem no suav nrog cov kev taug kev ntxhab
ua ntej uas Fed tau taw qhia ntawm lub rooj sib tham lub lim tiam no. "

"Tau kawg, kev taug kev ntxiv dhau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem ua tau. Txawm li cas los xij, lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm cov ntawv cog lus no ua rau lawv tsis tshua nkag siab rau cov nqi siab dua, thiab nrog cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 5%, lawv muab cov nqa tau zoo. Nws tseem tsim nyog sau cia tias tsuas yog 13% ntawm ICE-BAML Index vim tias kev loj hlob ntawm tam sim no thiab kawg ntawm 2024, phab ntsa ntawm kev loj hlob rau cov ntawv cog lus no tsis yog tshwj xeeb, "tus kws tshaj lij hais.

"Qhov no txhais tau hais tias feem coob ntawm cov neeg tawm ntawm cov ntawv cog lus no tsis tas yuav tuaj rau lub lag luam tawm tshiab kom qiv ntawm tus nqi siab dua tam sim no," nws hais.

Raws li rau cov neeg txhawj xeeb txog cov peev txheej qiv nyiaj tsis zoo yog tias kev lag luam qeeb lossis nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tuam txhab tig mus rau sab qab teb, Tirupattur hais tias qhov pib ntawm IG yog qhov tseem ceeb.

Tom qab nce mus txog peb lub hlis dhau los, qhov nruab nrab IG tag nrho cov peev txheej tau zoo dua me ntsis hauv 2022, nce mus rau 2.33 npaug los ntawm 2.37 zaug hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, zoo tawm ntawm COVID-19 qhov siab tshaj ntawm 2.9 zaug hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2020, hais tias tus kws tshaj lij. , hais txog lub tuam txhab nyiaj qiv nyiaj, Vishwas Patkar thiab Sri Sankaran.

Thiab txawm hais tias tus nqi siab dua, cov paj laum tseem yog qhov chaw ci ntsa iab rau kev lag luam, nrog cov kev pab cuam nruab nrab tau nce mus rau 12.6 npaug ntawm 12.5 zaug hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, nyob ib ncig ntawm qib siab tshaj txij li thaum ntxov 1990s.

Qhov no txhais tau li cas yog tias txawm tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nuj nqis tshiab siab dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm tag nrho cov nuj nqis uas tsis tau them, cov ntawv cog lus loj hlob muaj cov coupons siab. Yog li ntawd, feem ntau cov tuam txhab yuav tsum tau refinance ntawm ntau qib siab.

Ces muaj keeb kwm. "Saib rov qab mus rau lub sijhawm stagflationary ntawm xyoo 1970s thiab 1980s, thaum peb pom ntau qhov kev lag luam poob qis thiab tsis muaj zog hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam, IG credit (txawm tias ua ntej lub lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig zoo raws li peb paub tias nws tau los ua) yog qhov ruaj khov, nrog rau kev ua lag luam ncaj ncees. , "said Tirupattur.

Nws tau hais tias "Thaum kawg, nws tsim nyog hais tias peb tab tom tham txog kev sib cog lus ntawm IG pem hauv ntej thiab tsis yog cov nyiaj tau los siab, uas muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua rau kev ua lag luam hauv kev loj hlob qeeb," nws hais.

Cov kev lag luam

Npaj rau yav tom ntej
ES 00,
-0.61%

YM00,
-0.54%

NQ 00,
-0.46%
yog tsis muaj zog raws li daim ntawv cog lus yields
TUBMUSD 02Y,
4.269%

TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.779%
mus taug kev siab dua. Gilt yields
TMBMKGB-02Y,
4.489%
yog kuj surging raws li phaus
GBPUSD, Cov
-0.53%
crawls tawm ntawm cov ntaub ntawv qis ntawm $ 1.034 thiab euro
EURUSD,
-0.41%
mus qis li $0.955. Cov nqi roj
CL.1,
-0.75%
1 poob thiab kub
GC00,
-0.26%
yog nqis los ntawm tus duas
DXY,
+ 0.27%
nqi ntau dua. Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-0.00%
yog nyob rau hauv ntsuab tsuas yog tshaj $19,000.

Lub buzz

Amazon.com
AMZN,
-3.01%
yuav tuav lub rooj muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb thib ob - Prime Access Early Sale - txhawm rau ntxias cov neeg yuav khoom hnub so, uas xav tias yuav mus yos hav zoov thaum ntxov xyoo no.

Ntawm qhov heels ntawm qhov thib peb mega tus nqi nce, Atlanta Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Raphael Bostic tau hais tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav ua txhua yam nws ua tau kom "tsis txhob mob tob tob" rau kev lag luam. Bostic tseem yuav hais lus hnub Monday, nrog rau Boston Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Susan Collins, Dallas's Lorie Logan thiab Cleveland's Loretta Mester.

Ib tog sab xis nrog neo-fascist keeb kwm yog teem kom yeej Italian lub teb chawsal kev xaiv tsa, txawm hais tias qee qhov tau lees paub los ntawm tus thawj coj Giorgia Meloni lub suab qis dua.

Saib kev sib koom ntawm MGM Resorts
MGM,
-1.83%
thiab Wynn Resorts
WYNN,
-0.90%
tom qab Macau twv txiaj yuam pov nce tom qab ib qho easing ntawm Macau tsoom fwv txoj cai COVID-19.

PG&E
PCG,
-2.70%
yuav hloov Citrix Systems
CTXS,
-0.06%
hauv S&P 500 thaum Lub Kaum Hli 3, thiab EQT
EQT,
-7.55%
yuav hloov Duke Realty
DRE,
+ 0.02%.

Kua
AAPL,
-1.51%
npaj yuav ua nws qhov tseeb iPhone 14 nyob rau hauv Is Nrias teb.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm lub vev xaib

Nyob rau hauv Lavxias teb sab chaw nyob, Ukrainians yuav raug yuam kom tawm tsam lawv tus kheej

Thaum luv luv muag upended ib lub tuam txhab ua liaj ua teb me me

Daim phiaj qhia

Raoul Pal, co-founder thiab CEO ntawm Lub Zeem Muag nyuam qhuav muab rau ib pawg ntawm cov kab kos tsis txaus ntseeg nyob rau hauv nws qhov tseeb Ntiaj Teb Macro Advisor uas coj peb los ntawm yuav ua li cas Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob deb.

Nws sau tseg "theem kev puas tsuaj nyob rau ntau qhov xwm txheej hauv UNPRECEDENTED," tab sis zeroes ntawm qhov nws hu ua "ib daim ntawv txaus ntshai tshaj plaws hauv macro tam sim no." Nws qhia tau hais tias US 30-xyoo tsev qiv nyiaj nce 90% ntawm ib xyoos twg.

Cov tickers

Cov no yog cov neeg tshawb nrhiav saum toj kawg nkaus ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov Eastern:

Random nyeem

Spain xav ntxias cov neeg ua haujlwm nyob deb nrog ib tug digital nomad visa

Ib daim ntawv tshiab - rau lub ntiaj teb kev sib sau loj tshaj plaws ntawm "Nigels"

Brad Pitt muaj ib yam dab tsi rau ntse tso zis tso quav.

Xav paub kom paub pib thaum ntxov thiab raug kho kom txog thaum qhib lub tswb nrov, tab sis sau npe tuaj ntawm no kom nws tau xa nws ib zaug rau koj lub npov email. Lub emailed yuav xa tawm thaum txog 7: 30 teev sawv ntxov.