(Bloomberg) - Tebchaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov rau hnub Tuesday tab sis cov kws tshaj lij sab saum toj ntawm Societe Generale SA thiab Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ceeb toom txog kev poob qis dua ua ntej vim tias cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tau them nqi tag nrho hauv kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag.
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Cov thev naus laus zis-hnyav Nasdaq 100 thiab S&P 500 txhua tus tau nce ntau dua 2.6% rau hnub Tuesday tom qab qhov kev sib tw ntse tshaj lub lim tiam dhau los uas xa US qhov ntsuas ntsuas mus rau hauv lub lag luam dais. Thaum lub sij hawm muag tawm yog ntxias cov tub ua lag luam uas nrhiav cov nqi pheej yig dua, SocGen's Manish Kabra hais tias "kev lag luam" yuav pom S&P 500 Index poob rau 3,200 cov ntsiab lus - ze li 13% qis dua nws hnub Friday ua ntej hnub so.
Thiab xyoo 1970's-style inflation shock tuaj yeem xa qhov Performance index poob txog 30% los ntawm cov theem tam sim no thaum muaj kev tsis txaus siab nrog kev nce nqi siab dua, tus kws tshaj lij tau sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv. Qhov tseem ceeb nyeem-dhau ntawm xyoo 1970s yog thaum cov tub ua lag luam pib ntseeg tias kev nce nqi yuav nyob siab ntev dua, kev lag luam kev lag luam pib tsom mus rau qhov tiag es tsis txhob siv cov nyiaj khwv tau los-ib-ib feem, uas rau xyoo no yuav tsis zoo, SocGen hais.
Kabra tau hais tias "Peb tseem tsis tau pom qhov tseeb hauv qab rau kev sib npaug," Kabra tau hais.
Nws tus khub Michael J. Wilson ntawm Morgan Stanley, yog ib tus ntawm Wall Street lub suab nrov tshaj plaws thiab leej twg raug kwv yees qhov kev lag luam tawm tshiab kawg, pom zoo tias S&P 500 yuav tsum tau txo qis dua 15% mus rau 20% txog li 3,000 ntsiab lus rau kev lag luam kom muaj kev cuam tshuam tag nrho. lub scale ntawm economic contraction.
"Lub lag luam dais yuav tsis dhau mus txog thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis los yog kev pheej hmoo ntawm ib qho raug tua," Morgan Stanley pab pawg tau hais.
Cov kev hu xov tooj los ntawm Wall Street cov kws tshaj lij tshaj lij qhia txog qhov kev xav ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam ntawm cov peev txheej muaj peev xwm tau nce siab nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no raws li kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv thiab Federal Reserve hawkish tau tsa qhov kev xav ntawm kev lag luam ntev ntev. Wilson tau hais tias yuav tsum muaj kev lag luam poob qis dhau los ua kev lag luam hauv paus rooj plaub, S&P 500 tuaj yeem qis dua ze rau 2,900 cov ntsiab lus ntsuas - ntau dua 21% hauv qab nws qhov kawg kaw.
Tshaj ntawm Goldman Sachs, cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Peter Oppenheimer tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam tsuas yog tus nqi hauv kev lag luam me me, "ua rau lawv raug kev puas tsuaj ntxiv hauv kev cia siab." Pab neeg no tau hais tias lawv saib lub lag luam dais tam sim no raws li kev voj voog, nrog cov ntaub ntawv ntiag tug muaj zog dua thiab cov paj laum tsis zoo tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam dais.
Berenberg cov kws tshaj lij kuj tau hais rau hnub Tuesday nws tseem ntxov dhau los hu rau hauv qab rau kev sib npaug nrog cov nyiaj tau los txo qis tsuas yog pib ntawm kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag.
(Ntxiv cov lus los ntawm Societe Generale los ntawm thawj kab lus)
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