(Bloomberg) - Nws yog doomed, nws yog kev sib tw dais-kev ua lag luam, kev rov qab los uas yuav tsis kav ntev. Tag nrho cov av nkos pov tseg ntawm cov peev txheej hauv lub hli dhau los yuav zoo dhau los ua qhov tseeb. Tab sis nws tau nyuaj dua los txhuam ib sab ntawm qhov rov qab los ntawm S&P 500 raws li nws hovers ntawm qhov pom dav dav hauv kab kos.
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Plaub hnub ncaj qha ntawm kev poob tau raug tshem tawm hauv vib nas this Wednesday tom qab cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tau tuaj txias dua li qhov xav tau. S&P 500 tau nce 1.9% thaum 12:50 teev tsaus ntuj hauv New York, dhau ntawm 4,177 qib uas cim qhov ncov thaum lub Tsib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli rov qab los. Kev kov yeej qhov teeb meem yuav ua rau cov chartists hais txog qhov "siab dua," supposedly lub teeb liab hais tias muaj kev txhawb nqa ntau dua nyob rau hauv khw.
"Peb tau ceev faj txhua xyoo," said Jonathan Krinsky, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm BTIG. "Kev tshem tawm Lub Rau Hli siab ntawm lub hauv paus kaw yuav mus ntev rau kev tawm tswv yim txog kev hloov pauv."
Hnub Wednesday cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi - thawj zaug txij li thaum ntxov 2021 uas cov ntawv xov xwm nyeem tau qis dua li kev kwv yees kwv yees - ua rau cov tub lag luam kom sai sai rov qab cov thawj koom ruam ntawm cov nyiaj nruj uas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav ua, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam thoob plaws cov khoom muaj nqis txaus ntshai.
Ntau tshaj li $ 5 trillion tau rov qab los ntawm qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo raws li S&P 500 tau ua rau nws muaj zog tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo no, dhia 15% los ntawm nws lub Rau Hli trough. Cov khoom lag luam tau nce zuj zus raws li cov nyiaj tau los zoo dua li qhov kev xav tau thiab cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tau txo qis kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam kev lag luam uas yuav tshwm sim.
Steve Sosnick, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Interactive Brokers tau hais tias "Cov khoom lag luam tau nyob hauv hom kev sib tw, yog li yog tias koj tau yuav tag nrho, qhov no yuav tsis ua dab tsi los cuam tshuam koj," "Txawm hais tias cov tub lag luam xav tau txhua yam uas tuaj yeem txhais tau tias yog qhov tseeb, nws yog ib daim ntawv tshaj tawm," nws hais ntxiv. "Tab sis nws haum nrog cov lus piav qhia tshiab tau pom."
Raws li txoj kev, cov lus ceeb toom los ntawm cov kws tshaj lij ntawm cov tuam txhab xws li Morgan Stanley thiab Goldman Sachs Group Inc. tau nrov nrov. Hauv kev tshawb fawb cov neeg siv khoom tau ua lub lim tiam dhau los los ntawm Wolfe Research thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm hauv web, 75% ntawm cov neeg koom tau hais tias S&P 500 tseem tsis tau mus txog hauv qab.
Kev tsis txaus ntseeg yog qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm Fed lub voj voog ncig mus ncig thiab nws cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam. Twb tau, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev tau cog lus rau ob lub quarter ncaj. Thiab cov neeg tsim khoom loj ntawm cov chips hauv computer ceeb toom txog kev xav tau qeeb.
Lisa Erickson, tus lwm thawj coj loj thiab tus thawj coj ntawm pawg lag luam pej xeem ntawm US Bank Wealth Management tau hais tias "Peb tseem tsis tau ntseeg tias qhov kev nce siab ntawm cov nqi khoom lag luam uas peb tau pom yog tseem muaj kev ruaj khov," "Tus nqi siab thaum lawv tau nqis los hauv CPI daim ntawv tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no tseem muaj txoj hauv kev mus. Thiab Fed kuj xav pom cov pov thawj tseeb thiab ntseeg siab rau nws los hloov nws txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tiag tiag. "
Tab sis qhov kev ncaj ncees resilience tau txuas ntxiv mus. Ib qho los ntawm ib qho, dab tsi tau siv los ua kev tawm tsam hauv cov kab kos duab tau hloov mus rau hauv kev txhawb nqa, thiab bears raug yuam kom unwind lawv txoj haujlwm. Lub pob tawb Goldman ntawm feem ntau cov khoom luv luv tau nce 30% txij li thaum pib Lub Xya Hli, hlawv txhua tus neeg sib tw ntawm cov nyiaj poob qis.
Lub hli no, lub Rau Hli ncov tau dhau los ua kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm bulls thiab bears. Qhov ntsuas luv luv tau nce siab tshaj qhov pib rau hnub Monday, tsuas yog kaw hauv qab nws thaum muag rov pib dua thiab cov khoom lag luam tshem tawm lawv cov txiaj ntsig hauv hnub.
"Kev ua txhaum cai ntawm 4,177 qib ntawm S&P 500 yog qhov tseem ceeb los ntawm qhov kev xav hauv qab no vim tias nws pib tsim ib ntu ntawm qhov siab dua thiab siab dua qis dua, lossis dab tsi yog qhov nyiam tshaj plaws hu ua uptrend," Renaissance Macro Research co-founder Jeff deGraaf, sau nyob rau hauv ib tsab ntawv lub lim tiam dhau los. Nws tau raug ranked ua tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas saum toj kawg nkaus hauv Institutional Investor qhov kev tshawb fawb txhua xyoo rau 11 xyoo ncaj qha txog xyoo 2015.
Sam Stovall, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm CFRA, tsis npaj los hu tag nrho kom meej txog thaum S&P 500 recoups ib nrab ntawm nws cov kev poob uas tshwm sim txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli. Rau adherents ntawm Fibonacci tsom xam, ib tug technical cuab tam raws li ib tug xov tooj raws li qhia los ntawm Leonardo ntawm Pisa nyob rau hauv "Liber Abaci" nyob rau hauv 1202, mus txog rau lub midpoint yog lub teeb liab hais tias lub lag luam yog npaj txhij los ua kom tag nrho rov qab.
Stovall tau hais tias "Qhov no tseem yog kev lag luam dais mus txog thaum peb kaw saum 4,232 qib ntawm S&P," Stovall tau hais. "Tom qab ntawd, keeb kwm qhia peb tias tsis muaj lub lag luam dais puas tau rov qab los 50% ntawm nws qhov kev poob qis tsuas yog ua kom qis qis dua. Nws yuav yog lub cim qhia ntxov tias tus dais nyob tom qab peb. "
(Ntxiv cov lus qhia ntxiv pib hauv kab lus thib rau)
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