Micron Technology tsis tau txais kev hwm ntawm Wall Street. Cov neeg lag luam zoo li xav txog Micron, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom nco chip feem ntau, raws li cov chaw muab kev hloov pauv cov khoom lag luam, tech's version of nplej los yog kua txiv kab ntxwv. Qhov tshwm sim yog tias Micron ua lag luam ntawm kev muag khoom tsawg thiab cov nyiaj tau los txheeb ze lwm cov chips, kev lag luam dav, lossis lwm yam kev ntsuas sib piv. Thiab qhov ntawd zoo li shortsighted.
Ua ntej peb mus rau rooj plaub rau Micron (ticker: MU) sib koom, cia peb hais txog ob peb lub hauv paus uas feem ntau poob hauv kev sib tham semiconductor. Micron ua ob hom chips. Muaj DRAM, ib lub ntsiab lus rau dynamic random nkag tau lub cim xeeb, uas yog ib qho tseem ceeb ua tsaug rau nws "volatile" xwm. Cov ntaub ntawv zaum hauv DRAM sai sai ntawm txoj kev mus rau lwm qhov. Nws xav tau rau ntau hom kev suav, suav nrog PCs, servers, smartphones, thiab ntau yam khoom siv. Tab sis tua lub hwj chim, thiab cov ntaub ntawv ploj mus.
Thiab tom qab ntawd muaj NAND, lossis flash nco. NAND tsis yog ib qho acronym; nws yog digital logic-hais lus rau "NO THIAB." Dab tsi yog qhov tseem ceeb yog tias NAND nco yog "nonvolatile," yog li khaws cov ntaub ntawv tsis tas yuav muaj lub zog txuas ntxiv mus. NAND yog siv rau hauv tej yam xws li solid-state drives, nco phaib, thiab USB nco sticks.
Txhawm rau ua DRAM lossis NAND, koj xav tau cov chaw tsim khoom loj, kim kim. Hauv DRAM, tsuas muaj peb tus neeg ua si loj -
Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea),
SK Hynix (000660.Korea), thiab Micron. Kev ua lag luam NAND suav nrog cov DRAM players ntxiv rau kev koom tes ua lag luam uas muaj los ntawm
Western Digital (WDC) thiab Nyiv Kioxia.
Kev lag luam nco muaj tsawg tus neeg ua si cuam tshuam nrog cov khoom siv nruj, kev xav tau loj hlob, thiab kev kub ntxhov ntawm thaj chaw, yog li nws muaj kev cuam tshuam rau lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm kev xav. Nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no, cov nqi rau NAND chips tau nce siab tom qab muaj kev puas tsuaj ntawm ob lub chaw tsim khoom los ntawm Kioxia / Western Digital venture. Cov nqi rau qee cov khoom siv hauv kev tsim cov cim xeeb nti-neon gas, tshwj xeeb- tau spiked tom qab Russia qhov ntxeem tau ntawm Ukraine. Thiab qee cov tub ua lag luam tau txhawj xeeb tias kev lag luam qeeb qeeb hauv PC kev loj hlob tuaj yeem ua rau tsis muaj kev xav tau thiab cov nqi siab rau NAND thiab DRAM.
Tag nrho cov no yog qhov tseeb, thiab ib sab ntawm lub ntsiab lus. Micron lub lim tiam dhau los tshaj tawm cov txiaj ntsig rau nws cov nyiaj txiag lub quarter thib ob uas yooj yim tshaj plaws rau nws qhov kev pom zoo rau cov nyiaj tau los, cov txiaj ntsig, thiab cov paj tau paj. Lub tuam txhab kuj tau muab cov kev taw qhia txog nyiaj txiag peb lub hlis twg uas ua rau cov kev cia siab dhau los ntawm Wall Street. Rau lub Tsib Hlis lub quarter, Micron yog kwv yees cov nyiaj tau los ntawm $ 8.7 billion, nce 17%, thiab ua ntej ntawm cov qub kws tshuaj ntsuam pom zoo ntawm $ 8.1 billion.
Hauv kev xam phaj lub lim tiam dhau los no, Sumit Sadana, Micron tus thawj coj ua lag luam thiab tus thawj coj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag, hais tias qhov kev thov los ntawm PC kev lag luam tseem muaj zog. Thaum Micron pom lub tsev muag khoom ncaj nraim rau PCs hauv daim ntawv qhia hnub 2022, Sadana tau sau tseg tias kev xav tau ntawm cov neeg siv khoom muag muag tau raug cuam tshuam los ntawm kev loj hlob hauv kev lag luam PCs, uas zoo li yuav muaj kev nco ntau dua li cov neeg siv khoom siv laptops.
Sadana tau hais tias Micron lub sijhawm loj tshaj plaws los ntawm kev lag luam tsheb. Cov hloov mus rau hluav taws xob tsheb-thiab hauv txoj kev, cov tsheb uas muaj tsawg kawg qee theem ntawm kev tswj hwm tus kheej-yuav ua rau lub cim xeeb chips ntau dua ntawm daim nqi ntawm cov khoom hauv lub tsheb yav tom ntej.
Sadana hais tias qee lub EVs twb xav tau ntau npaum li $ 750 ntawm lub cim xeeb chips ib lub tsheb - kwv yees li 15 npaug ntawm lub cim xeeb siv nyob rau hauv ib lub tsheb uas siv roj. Kev hloov mus rau EVs, nws hais tias, yuav tsum yog "qhov muaj zog kawg nkaus rau xyoo tom ntej."
Nws tsis yog tus uas xav li ntawd xwb. Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday, McKinsey tau kwv yees tias tag nrho kev lag luam semiconductor yuav ncav cuag $ 1 trillion hauv kev muag khoom hauv xyoo 2030, nce los ntawm $ 600 nphom hauv 2021. McKinsey ua haujlwm rau kev lag luam tsheb yuav yog 13% mus rau 15% ntawm tag nrho cov chip muag los ntawm 2030, nce. los ntawm 8% hauv 2021.
Ondrej Burkacky, uas yog tus thawj coj McKinsey lub ntiaj teb semiconductor xyaum, hais tias qhov kev xav tau nce siab hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam pib xav tias tsis muaj kev txhawb nqa tam sim ntawd - nws tus qauv kev muag khoom yuav nyob twj ywm li ntawm 100 lab ib xyoos. Thiab nws tsis cia siab tias yuav tuaj txog ntawm kev tswj hwm tus kheej txhua lub sijhawm sai sai. Rau qhov ntawd, nws hais tias, koj yuav tsum tau tos txog 2035, 2040, lossis tej zaum ntev dua.
Tab sis Burkacky pom kev hloov pauv sai rau lub tsheb hluav taws xob - nws cia siab tias EVs yuav yog 30% mus rau 40% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tsim los ntawm 2030. Thiab nws tau pom tias muaj kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv lub cim xeeb-kev pabcuam tsav tsheb, xws li kev pab nres tsheb thiab kev ceeb toom kev tawm mus. Nws kuj tseem cia siab tias yuav pom kev siv ntau dua ntawm cov khoom siv dav dav dav dav dav dav. Nws tag nrho ntxiv, Burkacky xav tias, mus rau ob npaug ntawm tus nqi duas hauv cov chips ib lub tsheb los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kaum xyoo.
Ib feem zoo ntawm qhov ntawd yuav tuaj nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntawm kev nco ntxiv. Sadana hais tias Micron twb pom qee lub tsheb nrog ntau npaum li terabyte ntawm NAND, tib qhov chaw cia hauv
Kua's haib tshaj iPhone.
Yog li ntawm no yog ib lub tuam txhab uas muaj kev loj hlob zoo, muaj kev lag luam loj hlob tuaj, thiab cov thev naus laus zis ua lag luam, thiab dab tsi ua rau cov tub ua lag luam? Tsis heev. Micron sib koom ua lag luam kwv yees li ob zaug kwv yees nyiaj txiag 2023 cov nyiaj tau los, thiab kwv yees li 6.5 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 2023.
Piv ntawd mus
Qualcomm (QCOM) ntawm 12 lub sij hawm rau pem hauv ntej profits,
Intel (INTC) ntawm 13 zaug,
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) ntawm 23 lub sijhawm, thiab
Nvidia (NVDA) ntawm 40 zaug. Micron cov nyiaj tau los rau xyoo tom ntej yuav yog txawm tias nrog Nvidia's, tab sis nws muaj kwv yees li yim feem pua ntawm cov nqi lag luam.
Lub caij no, Micron shares tau nqis 16% xyoo rau hnub tim. Rau cov tub ua lag luam, nws yog lub sijhawm nco txog kev yuav khoom.
Sau rau Eric J. Savitz ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.barrons.com/articles/micron-chip-stock-a-buy-51648855069?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo