(Bloomberg) - Hauv kev lag luam txhuas, kaw lub smelter yog qhov kev txiav txim siab nyuaj. Thaum lub hwj chim raug txiav thiab cov khoom tsim "cov lauj kaub" rov qab mus rau chav sov, nws tuaj yeem siv sijhawm ntau lub hlis thiab ntau lab nyiaj los coj lawv rov qab online.
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Tsis tau Norsk Hydro ASA tab tom npaj lub hlis no los ua raws nraim li ntawm cov nroj tsuag loj hauv Slovakia. Thiab nws tsis yog tib qho xwb - European ntau lawm tau nqis mus rau qhov qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1970s thiab cov neeg sab hauv kev lag luam hais tias qhov kev kub ntxhov ntawm lub zog loj zuj zus tam sim no tau hem tias yuav tsim kom muaj kev ploj tuag thoob plaws thaj tsam loj ntawm cov khoom siv txhuas.
Cov lus piav qhia nyob rau hauv txhuas lub npe menyuam yaus: "congealed hluav taws xob." Cov hlau - siv nyob rau hauv ntau yam khoom, los ntawm lub tsheb thav duab thiab cov kaus poom dej qab zib rau ballistic missiles - yog tsim los ntawm cua sov raw cov ntaub ntawv kom txog rau thaum lawv yaj, thiab ces khiav ib tug hluav taws xob tam sim no los ntawm lub lauj kaub, ua rau nws loj heev zog. Ib tuj ntawm txhuas yuav tsum muaj txog li 15 megawatt-teev hluav taws xob, txaus kom muaj zog tsib lub tsev nyob hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees rau ib xyoos.
Qee lub smelters raug tiv thaiv los ntawm tsoomfwv cov nyiaj pab, kev cog lus hluav taws xob mus sij hawm ntev lossis nkag mus rau lawv tus kheej lub zog tauj dua tshiab, tab sis lwm tus ntsib lub neej yav tom ntej tsis paub tseeb.
Raws li kev lag luam poob qis, ntau pua lub tuam txhab nyob sab Europe uas tig hlau mus rau hauv cov khoom rau German tsheb lossis Fabkis lub dav hlau tau tso siab rau kev xa khoom tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua. Qee cov neeg yuav khoom tseem tab tom sim zam cov hlau los ntawm Russia, uas feem ntau yog tus xa khoom loj rau Tebchaws Europe.
"Keeb kwm tau muaj pov thawj, ib zaug txhuas smelters ploj mus, lawv tsis rov qab los," said Mark Hansen, tus thawj coj ntawm lub tuam txhab hlau lag luam Concord Resources Ltd. "Muaj kev sib cav uas txuas mus dhau kev ua haujlwm: qhov no yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hlau. Nws mus rau hauv dav hlau, riam phom, thauj thiab tshuab. "
Kev lag luam hais tias nws xav tau kev txhawb nqa tsoomfwv kom muaj sia nyob. Txawm li cas los xij, ib qho kev ntsuas xws li cov nqi tas li kom cov nroj tsuag tshaib plab ua haujlwm yuav nyuaj rau kev ua kom pom tseeb thaum cov neeg siv khoom ntsib kev nce nqi hluav taws xob thiab kev hem thawj ntawm kev faib nyiaj thiab kev tsaus muag.
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Cov kev txom nyem ntawm kev lag luam txhuas muab cov piv txwv zoo ntawm qhov ua si tawm hauv Tebchaws Europe cov kev lag luam uas siv zog ntau: thoob plaws sab av loj, cov neeg tsim cov chiv, cov cement nroj tsuag, steel mills thiab zinc smelters tseem raug kaw es tsis them qhov muag-watering nqi rau roj thiab hluav taws xob.
Kev txhawj xeeb tshaj plaws rau cheeb tsam kev tsim khoom lag luam: nws yuav tsis yooj yim rau kev kaw rau lub caij ntuj no. Cov nqi hluav taws xob rau xyoo 2024 thiab 2025 kuj tseem tau nce siab, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau lub sijhawm ntev ntawm ntau qhov kev lag luam.
Ntawm cov nqi lag luam tsis ntev los no, daim nqi hluav taws xob txhua xyoo rau Slovalco smelter yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm ob txhiab daus las, raws li Thawj Tswj Hwm Milan Vesely. Slovalco tau txiav txim siab ua npauj npaim cov nroj tsuag vim muaj kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob nce ntxiv thiab tsis muaj cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm uas muaj rau cov smelters lwm qhov hauv bloc.
Rov pib cov nroj tsuag - uas tuaj yeem siv sijhawm txog ib xyoos - tsuas yog tuaj yeem ua tau los ntawm qee qhov kev sib xyaw ntawm lub zog pheej yig dua, nce nqi ntawm txhuas, thiab kev txhawb nqa tsoomfwv ntxiv, Vesely tau hais hauv kev xam phaj lub lim tiam no ntawm qhov chaw.
Paul Voss, tus thawj coj ntawm European Aluminium, tau hais tias "Qhov no yog qhov teeb meem tiag tiag," said Paul Voss, tus thawj coj ntawm European Aluminium, uas sawv cev rau thaj av cov neeg tsim khoom thiab cov txheej txheem loj tshaj plaws. "Peb yuav tsum txheeb qee yam sai sai, txwv tsis pub yuav tsis muaj dab tsi los kho."
Ua ke nrog ntshuam tariffs uas cov teb chaws Europe tawm tsam cov neeg tsim khoom tau tawm tsam nyuaj los muab tso rau hauv qhov chaw, kev nce nqi ntawm lub zog tuaj yeem ua rau cov neeg tsim khoom ntsib tus nqi ntau dua li cov nqi thoob ntiaj teb txhawm rau txhawm rau muab cov khoom lag luam ruaj ntseg, ua rau muaj kev sib tw ntxiv rau Tebchaws Europe kev sib tw hauv ntiaj teb. kev lag luam kev lag luam.
"Yuav tsis muaj dab tsi los kho"
Cov neeg tsim khoom ntawm lwm cov hlau xws li zinc thiab tooj liab raug mob hnyav heev, tab sis qhov loj ntawm lub zog xav tau los ua txhuas tau ua rau kev lag luam tshwj xeeb tsis muaj txiaj ntsig.
Hauv tebchaws Yelemes, lub zog xav tau los tsim ib tuj ntawm txhuas yuav raug nqi kwv yees li $ 4,200 hauv khw muag khoom hnub Friday tom qab tau nce ntau dua $ 10,000 lub hli dhau los, raws li Bloomberg suav. Tus nqi London Hlau Hloov pauv yav tom ntej yog nyob ib puag ncig $ 2,300 ib tuj rau hnub Friday. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias curtails saib teem kom nrawm dua lub caij ntuj no.
"Thaum twg peb tau txais kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam smelter los ntawm kev ntxhov siab, peb pom European smelters kaw ib feem ntawm lub peev xwm," said Uday Patel, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb laus ntawm Wood Mackenzie. "Thaum tej yam txhim kho, muaj qee cov smelters uas tsis rov qab los hauv online."
Wood Mackenzie kwv yees tias Tebchaws Europe tau poob txog 1 lab tons ntawm nws cov peev txheej txhuas txhua xyoo, thiab Patel tau hais tias nws cia siab tias kwv yees li 25% ntawm qhov ntawd yuav raug txiav mus tas li. Lwm 500,000 tons yog "yooj yim heev" kaw, Wood Mackenzie kwv yees.
Cov kev txwv tsis pub muaj kev cuam tshuam me me rau cov nqi txhuas, uas tau poob ntau dua 40% txij li lub siab tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Peb Hlis raws li cov neeg lag luam brace rau lub ntiaj teb poob qis hauv kev thov uas tuaj yeem hnyav dua.
Tab sis thaum cov teb chaws Europe qhov kev poob qis rau kwv yees li 1.5% ntawm cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb, lawv yuav tso cov neeg siv khoom hauv Tebchaws Europe nce kev cia siab rau cov khoom lag luam uas yuav raug nqi ntau dua thiab nqa cov pa roj carbon ntau dua.
Twb tau, cov tuam txhab lag luam nyob sab Europe tau them tus nqi xa khoom hnyav kom tau txais txhuas xa mus rau cov chaw nres nkoj hauv zos, thiab kev nce ntxiv tuaj yeem ua rau lawv nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm tsis sib xws nrog cov phooj ywg thoob plaws Asia thiab Asmeskas.
Lub zog hluav taws xob tseem tab tom ua kom nrawm nrawm rau cov khoom siv rau cov tuam txhab uas yuav txhuas los ntawm cov smelters thiab hloov nws mus rau hauv cov khoom tshwj xeeb uas siv rau hauv txhua yam ntawm tsheb mus rau ntim khoom noj.
Lawv siv cov roj tseem ceeb hauv cov txheej txheem, thiab ntau tus tab tom nrhiav kom dhau lawv cov nqi hluav taws xob nce ntxiv los ntawm kev cog lus ntxiv uas tuaj yeem ua rau cov nqi ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab rau xyoo tom ntej.
"Lub smelter curtailments tsuas yog lub ntsis ntawm lub iceberg, vim hais tias koj kuj muaj downstream players uas yuav prime hlau thiab hloov nws mus rau hauv cov khoom siv nyob rau hauv cov sectors xws li haus dej haus cov kaus poom thiab automotives," said Michel Van Hoey, tus khub laus ntawm McKinsey & Co. Cov tuam txhab no feem ntau pom qhov nce kaum npaug ntawm lawv cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab "yuav tsis muaj peev xwm dhau tag nrho cov nqi yam tsis muaj qee qhov kev xav tau kev puas tsuaj lossis kev hloov pauv."
Ntawm Slovalco, Vesely - uas tau ua haujlwm ntawm lub tuam txhab txij li xyoo 1989 - cia siab tias nws yuav tuaj yeem rov qhib cov nroj tsuag thaum cov nqi hluav taws xob poob, tab sis lees paub qhov kev pheej hmoo tias nws tuaj yeem nyob offline rau ntau xyoo.
"Ib yam yuav tsum tau ua yog tias peb tsis xav rhuav tshem European aluminium ntau lawm," nws hais. "Yog tias Tebchaws Europe suav tias aluminium yog cov hlau zoo, ces cov nroj tsuag txhuas yuav tsum tau lav tus nqi hluav taws xob."
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