Yog tias koj tab tom xav rub koj 401 (k) tawm ntawm kev lag luam Tshuag, lossis koj txaus ntshai heev los nqis peev ntxiv, koj yuav tsum tau ntsib kuv tus phooj ywg Betty Badluck.
Cov laus laus Betty tau muaj hmoo tshaj plaws ntawm txhua tus neeg lag luam lag luam uas koj tau ntsib. Hauv 40 xyoo dhau los nws tau nqis peev hauv kev lag luam Tshuag tsuas yog rau lub sijhawm. Thiab txhua lub sijhawm nws lub sijhawm yog qhov kev puas tsuaj loj.
Nyeem: Vim li cas kev so haujlwm xyoo no tuaj yeem yog qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws
Thawj zaug Betty nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam yog thaum kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli 1987. Nws tau ncaws nws tus kheej kom ploj ntawm qhov zoo ntawm xyoo 1980s, thiab thaum cov nqi khoom lag luam pib poob qis rau lub caij ntuj sov nws xav tias lub sijhawm no yog lub sijhawm zoo los yuav lub dip. . Nws tau nqis peev $ 400, uas yog (hloov rau cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas) raws nraim $ 1,000 hauv cov ntsiab lus niaj hnub no.
Ob peb lub lis piam tom qab, thaum Lub Kaum Hli 19, lub khw lag luam tau teeb tsa nws qhov loj tshaj plaws ib hnub poob hauv keeb kwm, eclipsing txawm hnub phem tshaj plaws ntawm xyoo 1929. Betty pom ib feem peb ntawm nws cov nyiaj wiped tawm hauv ib lub qhov muag.
Zoo, tom qab qhov kev paub ntawd nws tsis xav mus ze ntawm lub khw muag khoom dua rau xyoo. Nws tsis yog txog thaum xyoo 1990, thaum lub lag luam tau rov zoo tag nrho, uas nws tau ua haujlwm ntawm cov hlab ntsha los nqis peev ntau hauv cov khoom lag luam. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 31, 1990, nws tau nqis peev ntxiv $ 450 hauv khw muag khoom, uas (dua) ua haujlwm ntawm $ 1,000 hauv cov nyiaj niaj hnub no.
Ob peb hnub tom qab, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Cov roj tau dhau los ntawm lub ru tsev, lub khw muag khoom tau ntim, thiab lub ntiaj teb nkag mus rau qhov kev kub ntxhov.
Ib zaug ntxiv, Betty ncaws tawm nws tus kheej thaum nws pom qee qhov ntawm nws cov nyiaj khwv tau los nyuaj ploj mus ua ntej nws ob lub qhov muag.
Nyeem: Tsis txhob ntshai txog koj 401(k)
Nws xav tias, dag kuv ib zaug, txaj muag rau koj - dag kuv ob zaug, txaj muag rau kuv. Yog li tom qab ob qhov kev puas tsuaj no nws tau swore tawm ntawm lub khw muag khoom tag nrho. Thiab nws yog xyoo ua ntej nws txawm xav txog nws. Tab sis thoob plaws xyoo 1990 nws tau saib raws li Dow Jones
DJIA,
+ 2.15%
thiab Nasdaq
COMP,
+ 2.51%
nce, nce, nce thiab nce. Lawv txawm khiav lag luam hauv TV bragging txog qhov siab npaum li cas Nasdaq mus. Thiab thaum kawg qhov no hnav Betty nqis. Thaum kawg, tom qab ntau xyoo tsis kam muab lwm tus npib tsib xee rau hauv nws 401 (k), nws tau muab rau. Thiab thaum Lub Xya Hli 31, 1998, nws tau nqis peev ntxiv $ 560 (uas yog $ 1,000 hauv cov nyiaj niaj hnub no).
Ob peb lub lis piam tom qab Russia tau ua txhaum nws cov nuj nqis, ua rau muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb. Ib lub peev nyiaj loj heev hu ua Long-Term Capital Management imploded, txawm tias (Peanut gallery: "Ha ha ha!") nws muaj ntau tus yeej Nobel nqi zog ntawm nws ciam teb. Txhua yam tawg.
Koj tau txais daim duab. Cov laus laus Betty Badluck. Nws tsis tso tseg. Tab sis txhua zaus nws plucked cov hlab ntsha los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam, nws tau dhau los ua lub sijhawm txaus ntshai, txaus ntshai. Yog li nws tau yuav thaum kawg ntawm lub Peb Hlis, 2000 - uas tau los ua lub ncov ntawm lub npuas ntev thiab pib ntawm lub lag luam ntev tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1970. Nws yuav dua thaum kawg lub Yim Hli 2001, ua ntej 9/11. Thiab nws yuav khoom ntau ntxiv thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli 2008, ua ntej Lehman Cov Kwv Tij tau tawg.
Nws lub sijhawm cia li tsis tuaj yeem ua phem dua.
Tab sis Betty tau ua ob yam ntxiv.
Thawj qhov yog, nws tsis tau sim xaiv cov khoom lag luam, nyiaj txiag, lossis kev lag luam. Nws tau nqis peev hauv lub ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam ua lag luam uas sib tw MSCI World Performance index, suav nrog Asmeskas thiab cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws.
Thiab tom qab nqis peev nws cov nyiaj, thiab saib nws plunge ... nws tso nws nyob ntawd.
Ua li cas rau Betty?
Yog li ntawd, hangs ib zaj dab neeg.
Nws ua tau zoo xwb.
Txawm hais tias nws tau xaiv qhov phem tshaj rau lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1980s uas yuav nqis peev, nws tau txais txiaj ntsig nruab nrab ntawm tsib xyoos tom ntej ntawm 20% thiab qhov nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm 10 xyoo ntawm 100%. Nws muab ob npaug rau nws cov nyiaj. Txawm hais tias nws muaj kev puas tsuaj, lub sijhawm txaus ntshai, nws nyob hauv cov xim dub tom qab tsib xyoos ntawm plaub zaug ntawm rau, thiab hauv cov xim dub tom qab 10 xyoo 10 zaug ntawm 10.
Niaj hnub no, txawm tias tag nrho nws cov nqi nyiaj ntsuab los ntawm rau qhov kev nqis peev no tsuas yog $ 3,500, nws cov ntaub ntawv muaj nqis yog $ 17,500. Qhov ntawd yog ntau tshaj tsib npaug ntawm nws cov peev. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev poob rau xyoo no, uas tau pom lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam Tshuag - thiab Betty's portfolio - poob 22%.
Thaum hloov kho rau kev nce nqi, Betty cov ntaub ntawv tau txais txiaj ntsig peb zaug nws muab tso rau hauv.
Thiab nco ntsoov, qhov no tsis yog qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm tus neeg ua lag luam nruab nrab. Qhov no yog qhov rov qab mus sij hawm ntev tau los ntawm tus neeg ua lag luam uas tsis muaj hmoo tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm niaj hnub no. Yog tias koj ntshai dhau los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam tam sim no vim tias koj ntshai - nkag siab tias kev lag luam yuav poob qis, nug koj tus kheej: Koj puas xav tias koj yuav tsis muaj hmoo zoo li Betty Badluck?
Qhov tseeb, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb twb tau poob ntau dua li ib feem tsib, yog li nws tsis tuaj yeem ua rau koj lub sijhawm yam tsis zoo li Betty. Koj tsis tuaj yeem yuav ntawm sab saum toj vim tias peb twb nyob deb zoo lawm.
Kuv tsis muaj kev pom kiag li rau ib hlis tom ntej, peb hlis lossis peb xyoos. Kuv tsis paub tias lub khw twg yuav ua tau zoo tshaj plaws, thiab phem tshaj, thiab ntau npaum li cas thiab thaum twg.
(Tsis yog, qhov xwm txheej, tsis muaj leej twg. Yog tias koj tsis ntseeg kuv, rov qab los hauv ob peb lub hlis lossis xyoo thiab cia peb tshuaj xyuas txhua qhov kev kwv yees.)
Txawm li cas los xij, kuv tuaj yeem nco qab tsuas yog ob peb lub sijhawm hauv kuv txoj haujlwm thaum tib neeg ntawm Wall Street tau ntshai heev li tam sim no: Lub Kaum Hli 2008 thiab Lub Peb Hlis 2020. Ob leeg tau dhau los ua lub sijhawm zoo los yuav.
Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog tias cov neeg khaws nyiaj rau lawv cov nyiaj laus tsis tab tom nrhiav kom tau nyiaj ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv ob peb lub lis piam lossis hli tom ntej (zoo nkauj txawm tias yuav yog). Lawv tab tom nrhiav kev tso nyiaj tseg kom nyob rau ob peb xyoos, thaum lawv tshaib plab ua haujlwm thiab xav tsoo lawv lub laptop nrog lub sledgehammer thiab so haujlwm, lawv yuav tuaj yeem qhib lawv 401 (k) nqe lus thiab pom nrog kev zoo siab. thiab xav tsis thoob tias lawv tau sau cov rog loj ntawm cov nyiaj.
Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv twg, lawv yeej tsis muaj kev zam txim tsis tau yuav tam sim no. Thiab yog tias lawv tsis paub, tsuas yog Vanguard Total World Tshuag
VT,
+ 2.10%,
los yog ib tug sib tov ntawm, hais, 40% iShares MSCI teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas qhov hnyav
EUSA,
+ 1.74%
thiab 60% Vanguard FTSE Txhua Lub Ntiaj Teb ex-US
VEU,
+ 1.62%,
yuav zoo dua tsis muaj dab tsi.
Kuv twv lawv yuav tsis muaj hmoo li Betty Badluck.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-unluckiest-stock-market-investor-of-modern-times-11655830851?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Ntsib tus 'unluckiest' cov lag luam lag luam ua lag luam niaj hnub no
Yog tias koj tab tom xav rub koj 401 (k) tawm ntawm kev lag luam Tshuag, lossis koj txaus ntshai heev los nqis peev ntxiv, koj yuav tsum tau ntsib kuv tus phooj ywg Betty Badluck.
Cov laus laus Betty tau muaj hmoo tshaj plaws ntawm txhua tus neeg lag luam lag luam uas koj tau ntsib. Hauv 40 xyoo dhau los nws tau nqis peev hauv kev lag luam Tshuag tsuas yog rau lub sijhawm. Thiab txhua lub sijhawm nws lub sijhawm yog qhov kev puas tsuaj loj.
Nyeem: Vim li cas kev so haujlwm xyoo no tuaj yeem yog qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws
Thawj zaug Betty nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam yog thaum kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli 1987. Nws tau ncaws nws tus kheej kom ploj ntawm qhov zoo ntawm xyoo 1980s, thiab thaum cov nqi khoom lag luam pib poob qis rau lub caij ntuj sov nws xav tias lub sijhawm no yog lub sijhawm zoo los yuav lub dip. . Nws tau nqis peev $ 400, uas yog (hloov rau cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas) raws nraim $ 1,000 hauv cov ntsiab lus niaj hnub no.
Ob peb lub lis piam tom qab, thaum Lub Kaum Hli 19, lub khw lag luam tau teeb tsa nws qhov loj tshaj plaws ib hnub poob hauv keeb kwm, eclipsing txawm hnub phem tshaj plaws ntawm xyoo 1929. Betty pom ib feem peb ntawm nws cov nyiaj wiped tawm hauv ib lub qhov muag.
Zoo, tom qab qhov kev paub ntawd nws tsis xav mus ze ntawm lub khw muag khoom dua rau xyoo. Nws tsis yog txog thaum xyoo 1990, thaum lub lag luam tau rov zoo tag nrho, uas nws tau ua haujlwm ntawm cov hlab ntsha los nqis peev ntau hauv cov khoom lag luam. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 31, 1990, nws tau nqis peev ntxiv $ 450 hauv khw muag khoom, uas (dua) ua haujlwm ntawm $ 1,000 hauv cov nyiaj niaj hnub no.
Ob peb hnub tom qab, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Cov roj tau dhau los ntawm lub ru tsev, lub khw muag khoom tau ntim, thiab lub ntiaj teb nkag mus rau qhov kev kub ntxhov.
Ib zaug ntxiv, Betty ncaws tawm nws tus kheej thaum nws pom qee qhov ntawm nws cov nyiaj khwv tau los nyuaj ploj mus ua ntej nws ob lub qhov muag.
Nyeem: Tsis txhob ntshai txog koj 401(k)
Nws xav tias, dag kuv ib zaug, txaj muag rau koj - dag kuv ob zaug, txaj muag rau kuv. Yog li tom qab ob qhov kev puas tsuaj no nws tau swore tawm ntawm lub khw muag khoom tag nrho. Thiab nws yog xyoo ua ntej nws txawm xav txog nws. Tab sis thoob plaws xyoo 1990 nws tau saib raws li Dow Jones
+ 2.15%
+ 2.51%
DJIA,
thiab Nasdaq
COMP,
nce, nce, nce thiab nce. Lawv txawm khiav lag luam hauv TV bragging txog qhov siab npaum li cas Nasdaq mus. Thiab thaum kawg qhov no hnav Betty nqis. Thaum kawg, tom qab ntau xyoo tsis kam muab lwm tus npib tsib xee rau hauv nws 401 (k), nws tau muab rau. Thiab thaum Lub Xya Hli 31, 1998, nws tau nqis peev ntxiv $ 560 (uas yog $ 1,000 hauv cov nyiaj niaj hnub no).
Ob peb lub lis piam tom qab Russia tau ua txhaum nws cov nuj nqis, ua rau muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb. Ib lub peev nyiaj loj heev hu ua Long-Term Capital Management imploded, txawm tias (Peanut gallery: "Ha ha ha!") nws muaj ntau tus yeej Nobel nqi zog ntawm nws ciam teb. Txhua yam tawg.
Koj tau txais daim duab. Cov laus laus Betty Badluck. Nws tsis tso tseg. Tab sis txhua zaus nws plucked cov hlab ntsha los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam, nws tau dhau los ua lub sijhawm txaus ntshai, txaus ntshai. Yog li nws tau yuav thaum kawg ntawm lub Peb Hlis, 2000 - uas tau los ua lub ncov ntawm lub npuas ntev thiab pib ntawm lub lag luam ntev tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1970. Nws yuav dua thaum kawg lub Yim Hli 2001, ua ntej 9/11. Thiab nws yuav khoom ntau ntxiv thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli 2008, ua ntej Lehman Cov Kwv Tij tau tawg.
Nws lub sijhawm cia li tsis tuaj yeem ua phem dua.
Tab sis Betty tau ua ob yam ntxiv.
Thawj qhov yog, nws tsis tau sim xaiv cov khoom lag luam, nyiaj txiag, lossis kev lag luam. Nws tau nqis peev hauv lub ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam ua lag luam uas sib tw MSCI World Performance index, suav nrog Asmeskas thiab cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws.
Thiab tom qab nqis peev nws cov nyiaj, thiab saib nws plunge ... nws tso nws nyob ntawd.
Ua li cas rau Betty?
Yog li ntawd, hangs ib zaj dab neeg.
Nws ua tau zoo xwb.
Txawm hais tias nws tau xaiv qhov phem tshaj rau lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1980s uas yuav nqis peev, nws tau txais txiaj ntsig nruab nrab ntawm tsib xyoos tom ntej ntawm 20% thiab qhov nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm 10 xyoo ntawm 100%. Nws muab ob npaug rau nws cov nyiaj. Txawm hais tias nws muaj kev puas tsuaj, lub sijhawm txaus ntshai, nws nyob hauv cov xim dub tom qab tsib xyoos ntawm plaub zaug ntawm rau, thiab hauv cov xim dub tom qab 10 xyoo 10 zaug ntawm 10.
Niaj hnub no, txawm tias tag nrho nws cov nqi nyiaj ntsuab los ntawm rau qhov kev nqis peev no tsuas yog $ 3,500, nws cov ntaub ntawv muaj nqis yog $ 17,500. Qhov ntawd yog ntau tshaj tsib npaug ntawm nws cov peev. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev poob rau xyoo no, uas tau pom lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam Tshuag - thiab Betty's portfolio - poob 22%.
Thaum hloov kho rau kev nce nqi, Betty cov ntaub ntawv tau txais txiaj ntsig peb zaug nws muab tso rau hauv.
Thiab nco ntsoov, qhov no tsis yog qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm tus neeg ua lag luam nruab nrab. Qhov no yog qhov rov qab mus sij hawm ntev tau los ntawm tus neeg ua lag luam uas tsis muaj hmoo tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm niaj hnub no. Yog tias koj ntshai dhau los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam tam sim no vim tias koj ntshai - nkag siab tias kev lag luam yuav poob qis, nug koj tus kheej: Koj puas xav tias koj yuav tsis muaj hmoo zoo li Betty Badluck?
Qhov tseeb, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb twb tau poob ntau dua li ib feem tsib, yog li nws tsis tuaj yeem ua rau koj lub sijhawm yam tsis zoo li Betty. Koj tsis tuaj yeem yuav ntawm sab saum toj vim tias peb twb nyob deb zoo lawm.
Kuv tsis muaj kev pom kiag li rau ib hlis tom ntej, peb hlis lossis peb xyoos. Kuv tsis paub tias lub khw twg yuav ua tau zoo tshaj plaws, thiab phem tshaj, thiab ntau npaum li cas thiab thaum twg.
(Tsis yog, qhov xwm txheej, tsis muaj leej twg. Yog tias koj tsis ntseeg kuv, rov qab los hauv ob peb lub hlis lossis xyoo thiab cia peb tshuaj xyuas txhua qhov kev kwv yees.)
Txawm li cas los xij, kuv tuaj yeem nco qab tsuas yog ob peb lub sijhawm hauv kuv txoj haujlwm thaum tib neeg ntawm Wall Street tau ntshai heev li tam sim no: Lub Kaum Hli 2008 thiab Lub Peb Hlis 2020. Ob leeg tau dhau los ua lub sijhawm zoo los yuav.
Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog tias cov neeg khaws nyiaj rau lawv cov nyiaj laus tsis tab tom nrhiav kom tau nyiaj ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv ob peb lub lis piam lossis hli tom ntej (zoo nkauj txawm tias yuav yog). Lawv tab tom nrhiav kev tso nyiaj tseg kom nyob rau ob peb xyoos, thaum lawv tshaib plab ua haujlwm thiab xav tsoo lawv lub laptop nrog lub sledgehammer thiab so haujlwm, lawv yuav tuaj yeem qhib lawv 401 (k) nqe lus thiab pom nrog kev zoo siab. thiab xav tsis thoob tias lawv tau sau cov rog loj ntawm cov nyiaj.
Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv twg, lawv yeej tsis muaj kev zam txim tsis tau yuav tam sim no. Thiab yog tias lawv tsis paub, tsuas yog Vanguard Total World Tshuag
+ 2.10% ,
+ 1.74%
+ 1.62% ,
VT,
los yog ib tug sib tov ntawm, hais, 40% iShares MSCI teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas qhov hnyav
EUSA,
thiab 60% Vanguard FTSE Txhua Lub Ntiaj Teb ex-US
VEU,
yuav zoo dua tsis muaj dab tsi.
Kuv twv lawv yuav tsis muaj hmoo li Betty Badluck.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-unluckiest-stock-market-investor-of-modern-times-11655830851?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo