Hauv qab ntawm kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem raug cim los ntawm tsab ntawv nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis 18 uas cov nyiaj pab cuam Melvin Capital xa mus rau nws cov tub ua lag luam tias cov nyiaj tau raug kaw, nws hais.
"Nruab nrab ntawm Gabe Plotkin cov nyiaj $ 7.8 billion Melvin Capital thiab Tiger Ntiaj Teb poob $ 17 nphom ntawm nws cov khoom siv thev naus laus zis, ntau qhov mob tam sim no yuav nyob hauv daim iav saib tom qab," Hayes tau hais. "Yog tias koj xav paub yog vim li cas Amazon, Expedia thiab Uber tau muag tawm zoo li lawv tau tawm ntawm kev lag luam - tam sim no koj paub."
Ib daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb Bank of America tsis ntev los no tau qhia tias cov thawj coj kev nqis peev muaj cov nyiaj tau los ntau tshaj plaws txij li lub Cuaj Hlis 11, 2001.
Qhov 5-xyoo nruab nrab ntau yam ntawm S&P 500 yog 18.6 npaug thiab kev lag luam tam sim no ua lag luam ntawm 17 zaug 2022 cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem thiab 15.5 zaug 2023 kev pom zoo EPS.
Txawm hais tias ntau yam tuaj yeem poob qis, cov paj laum "yuav tsum tau nce siab dua kom pom tseeb tias qhov loj ntawm ntau qhov kev cog lus," nws hais. "Cov txiaj ntsig rau 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag yog 6.82% hauv xyoo 2000, uas yog qhov sib txawv loj piv rau luv luv 3.2% tawm los rau lub lim tiam dhau los. Nws zoo ib yam nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis 2018 ntawm 3.25% thiab Lub Ib Hlis 2014 ntawm 3.03% ua ntej rov qab ua phem heev. "
Kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem nyob ze rau hauv qab, tab sis tseem tsis tau mus txog nws, Art Hogan, tus thawj coj ua lag luam B Riley Financial, hais rau TheStreet. Qhov nruab nrab Tshuag hauv NASDAQ composite index yog nqis 40%.
Nws tau hais tias "Peb tau pom ntau qhov kev cog lus ntau thiab ua ke nrog kev xav tsis zoo, peb xav hais tias peb tau nyob ze, yog tias tsis nyob hauv qab," nws hais.
Qhov nruab nrab ntev ntev ntau yam rau S&P 500 rov qab mus rau 25 xyoo dhau los tsom iav qhov nws tab tom ua lag luam tam sim no - kwv yees li 16.6 npaug ntawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los, nqis los ntawm 21.5 zaug thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, Hogan tau hais.
"Qhov ntawd tsuas yog hais txog qhov tseeb yog tias koj rov qab los tsuas yog 10 xyoo qhov nruab nrab ntau ntawm 18.5 zaug, yog li peb muaj ob qhov kev hloov pauv qis dua qhov nruab nrab tam sim no," nws hais. "Lub S&P 500 muaj tsawg dua 20% ntawm nws lub tuam txhab koom ua lag luam saum toj no lawv 200-hnub mus nruab nrab. Tus lej ntawd yog 15% rau Nasdaq. "
Cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav tau poob qis sai - American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) yog qhov qis qis uas tsis tau pom txij li thaum muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag zoo rov qab rau xyoo 2008 thiab 2009.
Hogan tau hais tias "Cov tub ua lag luam hauv tsev muaj qib siab tshaj plaws ntawm cov nyiaj hauv lawv cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau 08 thiab 09 ib yam," Hogan tau hais.
Lwm Pullback tuaj yeem tshwm sim Kev nce ib hnub hauv kev ua lag luam tsis yog pov thawj tias kev poob qis tuaj yeem tshwm sim hauv khw, Greg McBride, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam nyiaj txiag rau Bankrate, lub tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv New York, hais rau TheStreet. Qhov sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam poob qis tsis tawm ntawm lub rooj vim tias cov nqi nce nqi tseem nyob siab.
Nws tau hais tias "Txog thaum muaj pov thawj tsis tuaj yeem lees paub tias kev nce nqi nce rov qab thiab qhov kev poob qis tsis nyob hauv daim npav, hu rau lub khw hauv qab yog ntxov ntxov," nws hais. "Txawm hais tias kev lag luam rov qab mus rau Lub Ib Hlis 3 theem, qhov ntawd yuav tawm mus rau lub qhov rais yog tias kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2023."
Kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb zoo li yuav txuas ntxiv mus thiab cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum ntsib qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm lwm qhov rub rov qab, McBride tau hais.
Nws tau hais tias "Cov neeg lag luam yuav tsum npaj kom muaj kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua thiab tsis paub tseeb hauv kev lag luam thoob plaws xyoo 2022 thiab mus rau 2023," nws hais. "Qhov ntawd yog qhov sib npaug rau cov chav kawm nrog kev nce nqi ntawm plaub xyoo caum siab thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai nruj ntawm tus nqi nrawm dua li peb tau pom hauv ntau xyoo lawm. 2021 yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg - ib xyoos uas kev ua lag luam nce mus, yuav luag tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam thiab tsis muaj 5% rub rov qab ntawm ib qho twg. "
Cov kev lag luam tsis tau mus txog hauv qab vim tias cov kev lag luam macroeconomic xws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tsis muaj nyob hauv ntau dua, Steve Sosnick, tus kws tshaj lij rau Interactive Brokers, hais rau TheStreet.
Nws hais tias "Txhua tus neeg nug seb peb puas tau tsoo hauv qab," nws hais. "Yog tias txhua tus xav paub yog tias nws muaj kev nyab xeeb los yuav, peb tsis tau tsoo hauv qab. Cov xwm txheej tseem tsis tau muaj. Txhua leej txhua tus tab tom nrhiav rau qhov tseem ceeb los teeb liab hauv qab. Capitulation yuav tsis tshwm sim. "
Cov neeg lag luam tau npau taws txij li lub xeev ntawm kev ua lag luam yog rau nws nce mus, Sosnick tau hais.
Nws tau hais tias "Tib neeg cia siab tias kev lag luam yuav rov qab los," nws hais. "Ib txhia ntawm lawv tau pom kev lag luam uas tsis tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm Fed stimulus."
Cov tub lag luam yuav tsum ua raws li Buffett's Strategy Cov tub lag luam yuav tsum tau muab lawv cov nyiaj ntsuab los ua haujlwm xws li Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett, Hayes tau hais.
Tus neeg nplua nuj tau siv li ib feem peb ntawm nws cov nyiaj tau los lossis kwv yees li $ 50 nphom los ua haujlwm txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo.
Nws hais tias "Thaum lwm tus tab tom nqhis, Warren tab tom yuav khoom," nws hais.
Thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam poob qis, Buffett's y (BRK.A ) - - Tau txais Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chav Kawm A Qhia (BRK.B ) - - Tau txais Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B Daim Ntawv Qhia yuav cov khoom lag luam ntawm qhov poob thiab ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab roj xws li Occidental Petroleum (oxy ) - - Tau txais Occidental Petroleum Corporation Daim Ntawv Qhia uas yog ib qho ntawm Berkshire's 10 qhov chaw loj tshaj plaws.
Lub conglomerate kuj tau yuav ntau shares ntawm Chevron, uas yog lwm ntxiv rau nws thawj txoj hauj lwm uas vaulted lub peev rau hauv lub conglomerate lub saum toj kawg nkaus plaub cov khoom muaj nqis.
Txog thaum kawg ntawm 2021, Berkshire Hathaway siv $ 11.6 nphom rau lub tuam txhab pov hwm Alleghany (Y ) - - Tau txais Alleghany Corporation Report . Thaum lub sij hawm lub tuam txhab lub rooj sib tham txhua lub Plaub Hlis Ntuj, Buffett tau qhia tias Berkshire muaj 9.5% feem pua ntawm cov tuam txhab gaming Activision Blizzard los ntawm nws thawj feem ntawm 2%, uas yog teem rau yuav los ntawm Microsoft (MSFT ) - - Tau txais Microsoft Corporation Report .