Koj yuav tsum mus tag nrho txoj kev rov qab mus rau 1981 thaum cov khoom lag luam, cov ntawv cog lus, kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi thiab cov hlau ua lag luam tau poob tag nrho ib txhij.
S&P 500 qhov ntsuas
SPX,
tau thim rov qab 18% xyoo no, iShares 7-10 Xyoo Treasury Bond ETF
IEF,
tau poob 10%, iShares TIPS Bond ETF
Tswv yim,
tau poob 8%, thiab Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
DBB,
tau eased 1%.
Tom qab ntawd, raws li tam sim no, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nce cov paj laum kom txo qis kev nce nqi.
"Ib yam li niaj hnub no, lub ntiaj teb lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau xav txog 'tawg rov qab' ntawm kev nce nqi, uas, zoo li tus dab hauv zaj yeeb yaj kiab txaus ntshai, tau tshwm sim kom tuag ua ntej rov qab los nrog cua thib ob thiab thib peb," hais tias Dhaval Joshi, tus kws tshaj lij tshaj lij. rau BCA Research's Counterpoint. "Ib yam li niaj hnub no, cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau xav ua kom kho lawv qhov kev ntseeg siab tsis zoo hauv kev tswj hwm kev lag luam."
"Thiab ib yam li niaj hnub no, cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab cia siab tias lawv tuaj yeem tsav kev lag luam mus rau 'muab tsaws', txawm tias lawv ntseeg tiag tiag qhov ntawd yog lwm zaj dab neeg," nws hais ntxiv.
Joshi tau hais tias kev hloov pauv los ntawm stagflation mus rau kev poob nyiaj txiag ntshai ua rau cov tub ua lag luam tsis muaj chaw nkaum. Thaum lub Plaub Hlis, daim ntawv cog lus pom qhov poob qis tshaj plaws ntawm kev txhawj xeeb stagflation, thaum lub Tsib Hlis, kev lag luam hlau thiab cov khoom lag luam tau thim rov qab, uas yog kev lag luam kev lag luam qub.
Rov qab mus rau xyoo 1981, cov nqi qiv nyiaj qis dua thawj zaug, thaum lub caij ntuj sov lig. Cov khoom lag luam tseem nyob hauv siab rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej, tab sis siab dua 12 lub hlis tom qab. Thiab cov hlau ua lag luam tsis rov qab los ntawm lawv qhov siab tau ntau xyoo.
Yog tias tam sim no, nws hais tias, cov nqi qiv nyiaj tam sim no nkag mus rau hauv cov txheej txheem hauv qab. Cov khoom lag luam yuav qis dua tom ntej, thiab pom kev rov qab sai dua li 40 xyoo dhau los vim lawv qhov kev nkag siab ntau ntxiv rau cov nyiaj tau los. Kev lag luam hlau, nws ntxiv, yuav raug kev txom nyem tsawg kawg yog ob tus lej poob rau xyoo tom ntej.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-havent-acted-like-this-since-1981-and-heres-how-that-played-out-11652957149?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo