Ib tug tub luam ua haujlwm hauv pem teb thaum sawv ntxov ua lag luam ntawm New York Tshuag Txauv (NYSE) thaum Lub Peb Hlis 10, 2023 hauv New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Dluab
Nws zoo li tsuas yog nag hmo uas kev lag luam tau paub tseeb tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nyuaj dua yuav nce nws cov txiaj ntsig tus nqi ib nrab feem pua ntawm nws lub rooj sib tham hauv tsawg dua ob lub lis piam.
Tias yog vim nws, qhov tseeb, yog nag hmo. Hnub Thursday, cov tub lag luam hauv kev lag luam yav tom ntej yuav luag paub tseeb tias Fed yuav siv txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag ntau dua thiab nce ob npaug ntawm lub quarter-point hike nws tau pom zoo lub hli tas los.
Tab sis ib bank implosion thiab ib qho kev sib koom tes qhia tom qab, thiab kev ua lag luam tau hloov siab.
Qhov tshwm sim ntawm 0.25 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus nce siab tshaj 70% ntawm ib qho taw tes hauv kev lag luam thaum sawv ntxov, raws li CME Group, qhia tias ib ntus kev sib tw ntawm Fed-induced panic tau dhau mus.
"Txhua yam, cov ntaub ntawv tsis sib cav txog 50 [cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb] nce qib los ntawm Fed thaum Lub Peb Hlis 22 txawm hais tias muaj zog them nyiaj ua ntej," said Kathy Bostjancic, tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam thoob tebchaws.
Cov nyiaj tsis ua liaj ua teb tau nce los ntawm 311,000 Thaum Lub Ob Hlis, zoo ua ntej ntawm Phab ntsa Street kwv yees rau 225,000 tab sis tseem yog ib kauj ruam los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis 504,000.
Tej zaum qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, cov nyiaj khwv tau los nruab nrab ib teev tau nce tsuas yog 0.24% rau lub hli, qhov nce 4.6% xyoo dhau los uas yog qis dua 4.8% kwv yees. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kev ntsuas tseem ceeb rau kev sib ntaus sib tua Fed uas tsis muaj qhov tsis ntseeg tau saib rau hnub Friday Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm ze ze li nws yuav tau saib lub lim tiam tom ntej rau cov neeg siv khoom thiab tus nqi tsim khoom hauv Lub Ob Hlis.
"Lub Fed tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev nplij siab hauv kev nce hauv kev ua haujlwm thiab kev txo qis ntawm kev nce siab ntawm cov nyiaj ua haujlwm kom tswj tau tus nqi nce 25 [qhov tseem ceeb]," Bostjancic ntxiv. Lub hauv paus ntsiab lus yog 0.01 feem pua.
Economists ntawm ob lub Bank of America thiab Goldman Sachs tau pom zoo, hais rau hnub Friday thaum sawv ntxov tias lawv tau sawv tom qab lawv cov kev kwv yees rau lub quarter-point mus ncig ntawm lub Peb Hlis 21-22 lub rooj sib tham ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg. Ob lub tsev txhab nyiaj siv cov lus "ze hu" ntawm lawv qhov kev xav, sau tseg tias lub lim tiam tom ntej ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv Fed qhov kev txiav txim siab zaum kawg.
"Lub Ob Hlis tsab ntawv ceeb toom yog tag nrho ntawm sab softer," Michael Gapen, tus thawj coj ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam ntawm Bank of America, tau hais hauv daim ntawv teev cov neeg siv khoom. "Thaum cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm tau nce siab tshaj peb qhov kev cia siab, qhov nce ntawm cov nyiaj poob haujlwm thiab cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ntawm ib teev tsis muaj zog taw qhia qhov sib npaug me ntsis ntawm kev ua haujlwm thiab kev thov."
Dab tsi ua rau kev hloov mus rau 25 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus tseem ceeb yog tias ntawm ib qho chaw hnub Thursday qhov kev pom rau 50 lub hauv paus taw tes txav tau siab dua 70%, raws li ntsuas los ntawm CME's FedWatch ntsuas kev lag luam hauv tsoomfwv cov nyiaj cog lus yav tom ntej. Qhov ntawd los ua raws Cov lus hais los ntawm Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell, leej twg hais rau Congress lub lim tiam no tias yog tias cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tsis yooj yim, lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav ua rau tus nqi nrawm dua thiab siab dua li qhov xav tau yav dhau los.
Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi ntawd tau pib los thaum lub sij hawm muaj kev sib tw ntse hauv kev lag luam Tshuag thiab ntshai tias lub cev qhuav dej ntawm Silicon Valley Bank tuaj yeem yog qhov qhia txog kev sib kis hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag. Qhov kev hloov mus rau lub quarter-point qhov tshwm sim tau dhau los tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday thaum sawv ntxov, txawm tias kev lag luam tsis hloov pauv thiab ib nrab-point txav tau nce ntxiv.
Liz Ann Sonders, tus kws tshaj lij kev nqis peev ntawm Charles Schwab tau hais tias "Qhov kev txav mus los ntawm 50 qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov sib txawv yog qhov nyuaj rau kev sib cais los ntawm kev tawg ntawm SVB," "Qhov ntawd yuav tsum yog nyob rau hauv kev xav ntawm Fed: Puas yog qhov no yog qhov tawg?"
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/just-like-that-market-pricing-swings-back-to-quarter-point-fed-rate-hike.html