Morgan Stanley tau hais kom cov tub ua lag luam tawm tsam tsis tso lawv cov nyiaj mus ua haujlwm hauv cov khoom lag luam txawm tias kev lag luam tom qab Fed-kev txiav txim siab dhia.
Mike Wilson, lub tuam txhab tus thawj coj ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas tus tswv lag luam kev ncaj ncees thiab tus thawj coj ua lag luam, hais tias nws ntseeg tias Wall Street qhov kev zoo siab dhau los. lub tswv yim hais tias cov paj laum hikes yuav qeeb sai dua li qhov xav tau yog ntxov ntxov thiab muaj teeb meem.
"Kev ua lag luam ib txwm sib sau ua ke thaum Fed nres taug kev mus txog thaum kev lag luam pib pib. … [Tab sis] nws tsis zoo li yuav muaj qhov sib txawv ntau ntawm lub sijhawm no ntawm qhov kawg ntawm Fed hiking phiaj los nqis tes thiab kev poob qis," nws hais rau CNBC's "Nyiaj ceev nyiaj” hnub Wednesday. "Thaum kawg, qhov no yuav yog qhov ntxiab."
Raws li Wilson, qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam qeeb yuav muaj rau cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm Fed dhau-tightening.
Nws tau hais tias "Kev ua lag luam tau muaj zog me ntsis dua li qhov koj xav tau vim tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov cim tau ua tsis zoo," nws hais. "Txawm tias tam sim no lub khw muag khoom tau pib yuav mus rau qhov tseeb tias Fed tej zaum yuav mus deb dhau thiab ua rau peb poob rau hauv kev lag luam."
'Zoo kawg'
Wilson muaj 3,900 lub hom phiaj ntawm lub xyoo kawg ntawm tus nqi S&P 500, ib qho qis tshaj ntawm Wall Street. Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias a 3% poob los ntawm hnub Wednesday kaw thiab 19% poob los ntawm qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tau kaw siab thaum Lub Ib Hlis.
Nws qhov kev kwv yees tseem suav nrog kev hu xov tooj rau kev ua lag luam kom txo qis dua ua ntej mus rau lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg. Wilson tab tom npaj rau S&P kom poob qis dua 3,636, 52-lub lim piam qis qis rau lub hli tas los.
“Peb tab tom ze rau qhov kawg. Kuv txhais tau tias lub lag luam dais no tau mus rau ib ntus, "Wilson hais. "Tab sis qhov teeb meem yog nws yuav tsis tso tseg, thiab peb yuav tsum muaj qhov kawg txav mus, thiab kuv tsis xav tias lub Rau Hli qis yog qhov kawg txav."
Wilson ntseeg tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem poob qis li 3,000 nyob rau xyoo 2022 qhov kev poob qis.
Nws tau hais tias "Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb heev rau kev tsim txhua qhov kev nqis peev ntawm 'Dab tsi yog koj qhov upside piv rau koj downside," nws hais. “Koj tab tom muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau ntawm no kom ua tiav txhua yam uas tseem tshuav ntawm lub rooj. Thiab, rau kuv, qhov ntawd tsis nqis peev. "
Wilson xav txog nws tus kheej conservatively positioned - ceeb toom nws yog cov khoom tsis muaj zog thiab nyiam kev tiv thaiv kev ua si suav nrog kev pab kho mob, LUS, cov neeg siv khoom siv staples thiab hlauv taws xob. Nws kuj pom qhov zoo ntawm kev tuav ntxiv nyiaj ntsuab thiab bonds thaum lub sij hawm ntawd.
Thiab, nws tsis nyob rau hauv kev maj mam muab nyiaj mus ua hauj lwm thiab tau "dhia tawm" mus txog thaum muaj cov cim qhia ntawm ib lub trough hauv Tshuag.
"Peb tab tom sim muab rau lawv [cov neeg siv khoom] qhov khoom plig zoo. Tam sim no, qhov khoom plig txaus ntshai, kuv xav hais, yog li 10 rau ib qho tsis zoo, "Wilson hais. "Nws tsuas yog tsis zoo."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/market-jump-after-fed-hike-is-trap-morgan-stanley-warns-investors-.html