Cov khoom kim heev hais tias Tuam Tshoj qhov tseeb Covid nthwv dej ua rau cov neeg siv khoom xav tau

BEIJING - Cov khoom lag luam khoom kim heev tau txo qhov kev cia siab rau lawv txoj kev lag luam Tuam Tshoj xyoo no tom qab lub teb chaws qhov tseeb Covid kaw, raws li kev tshawb fawb Oliver Wyman tau qhia tshwj xeeb rau CNBC.

Kev kwv yees kev loj hlob rau cov khoom kim heev thiab hwm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam raug txiav los ntawm 15 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus, thiab nqis ze li 25 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus rau cov khoom kim heev ib leeg, raws li kev tshawb fawb tau tshaj tawm hnub Wednesday.

Cov lag luam hwm thiab khoom kim heev tam sim no cia siab tias tsuas yog 3% kev loj hlob ib xyoos ib zaug hauv lawv cov lag luam hauv Suav teb xyoo no, poob qis los ntawm 18% nce siab uas lawv tau kwv yees ob peb lub hlis dhau los, tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais. Qhov ntawd yog raws li qhov hnyav nruab nrab ntawm cov txiaj ntsig kev tshawb fawb.

Oliver Wyman tau hais tias nws qhov kev tshawb fawb ntawm cov thawj coj hauv lub Tsib Hlis tau npog ntau dua 30 ntawm lub tuam txhab kev sab laj cov neeg siv khoom thoob plaws cov neeg siv khoom zoo thiab khoom kim heev, sawv cev ntau dua $ 50 nphom hauv khw muag khoom.

Shanghai, lub nroog uas muaj cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb coob tshaj plaws hauv Suav teb thiab lub chaw rau kev lag luam txawv teb chaws, tau ntsib kev cuam tshuam loj heev ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus Covid tshwm sim lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav no - lub teb chaws qhov phem tshaj plaws txij li pib muaj kev poob siab ntawm kev sib kis thaum ntxov 2020. Lub nroog tau hais kom tib neeg nyob hauv tsev. thiab feem ntau cov lag luam yuav raug kaw rau ob lub hlis, ua ntej sim rov qhib rau lub Rau Hli 1.

Kenneth Chow, tus thawj coj ntawm Oliver Wyman tau hais hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj lub lim tiam no "Tseem muaj qhov tsis paub meej txog qhov yuav yog Covid [kev ntsuas] yav tom ntej hauv Suav teb.

Nws tau hais tias "Muaj kev tsis txaus ntseeg loj txog seb cov neeg siv khoom ntseeg siab puas tuaj yeem rov qab sai, xws li xyoo 2020 thiab 2021," nws hais, hais txog lub tuam txhab kev xam phaj nrog cov thawj coj.

Tuam Tshoj cov khw muag khoom muag poob los ntawm 11.1% nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los, tom qab nce 3.3% nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo. Cov neeg siv khoom siv hauv Suav teb yeej tsis tau rov zoo los ntawm thawj theem ntawm kev sib kis, thiab raws li Covid rub mus rau xyoo thib peb, tib neeg tau txhawj xeeb ntau ntxiv txog cov nyiaj tau los yav tom ntej.

Tus nqi poob haujlwm hauv Tuam Tshoj 31 lub nroog loj tshaj plaws tau tshaj xyoo 2020 siab kom ncav cuag 6.7% hauv lub Plaub Hlis - qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li cov ntaub ntawv pib xyoo 2018.

"Nws zoo li lub sijhawm no, cov neeg muaj txiaj ntsig Gen Z [hnub nyoog 25 lossis qis dua] yuav hnov ​​​​qab txawv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog vim tias tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm txoj haujlwm yuav yog ib yam uas lawv yuav tsum tau ua nrog thawj zaug," tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais. "Lwm qhov kev pom zoo los ntawm peb cov neeg xam phaj yog tias qhov kev txwv ntev dua, qhov ntev ntawm U-trough yuav kav ntev dua."

Txawm hais tias nyob hauv thaj chaw tsis raug kaw, cov neeg siv khoom piav qhia tau hais tias hauv khw muag khoom poob ntau dua 50%, thiab feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg tuaj saib tiag tiag ua kev yuav khoom tau nce mus txog 30% qis dua, raws li Oliver Wyman qhia.

Tuam Tshoj tau tuav txoj cai nruj "zero-Covid" txoj cai uas siv kev txwv kev mus ncig thiab kev kaw nrawm nrawm los sim tswj tus kabmob. Thaum lub tswv yim pab lub teb chaws sai sai rov qab los rau kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv 2020, qhov ntau dua kis tau tus mob ntawm lub xyoo no omicron variant tau ua rau tus kab mob no nyuaj rau tswj.

Saib ua ntej rau xyoo tom ntej, cov neeg teb cov lus nug tau ceev faj txog kev loj hlob yav tom ntej, tsuas yog 12% - nqis los ntawm 40% yav dhau los - cia siab tias lawv cov lag luam Tuam Tshoj yuav loj hlob ntau dua 20%.

Cov npe ntawm qhov nruab nrab tam sim no cia siab tias 11% kev loj hlob xyoo tom ntej hauv lawv cov lag luam hauv Suav teb, tsuas yog 6% tsis npaj rau kev loj hlob, tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais.

Ntau yam khoom kim heev thiab hwm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tshawb fawb tau pom zoo txog txoj hauv kev loj hlob los ntawm kev mus ncig hauv tsev thiab kev lag luam e-lag luam, Chow tau hais. Nws hais tias ib zaug kev mus ncig hauv tebchaws tau tso cai tuaj tos, Hainan nyiam tau txais txiaj ntsig.

Lub teb chaws sov suav teb tau dhau los ua ib qho khoom kim heev khw hub vim cov neeg Suav feem coob mus tsis tau mus txawv teb chaws.

Nws hais ntxiv tias ntau lub npe khoom kim heev tau siv e-lag luam kom ncav cuag cov nroog me hauv Suav teb, thaum cov khoom lag luam hauv qis qis ntawm kev lag luam tau tshawb nrhiav cov khw tshiab qhib. Tab sis "thaum tham nrog qee tus ntawm peb cov neeg siv khoom, Covid kaw hauv Shanghai thiab qee lub nroog tau yog lawv qhov kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb, tsis yog kev nthuav dav hauv khw," Chow hais.

Saib mus rau lub sijhawm ntev, qib siab ntawm Suav cov neeg siv khoom txuag tau keeb kwm yog qhov kev kwv yees zoo ntawm kev siv nyiaj yav tom ntej, tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais.

Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, Suav tsev neeg inclinations txuag tau mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li thaum 2002, Raws li kev tshawb fawb los ntawm People's Bank of China.

"Thaum cov neeg siv kev ntseeg siab tau rov pib dua thiab tseem Covid cov kev ntsuas kaw tau raug txo qis, yuav muaj qib kev siv nyiaj zoo dua los qhib," Chow tau hais. Tab sis "cov lus nug tseem tseem nyob rau thaum twg Covid ntsuas yuav raug txo qis."

Oliver Wyman qhov kev tshawb fawb pom tias qhov kev cia siab tshaj plaws cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj yuav ua kom rov zoo tag nrho thaum lub Xya Hli, thaum cov neeg saib tsis zoo tsis xav tias yuav rov qab mus rau qhov qub mus txog rau xyoo tom ntej. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias "Qhov kev pom nruab nrab ua rau xaus rau txoj cai txwv kom tshwm sim nyob ib puag ncig lub Kaum Hli xyoo no," tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais.