Lub lag luam lumber tau coj qee qhov kev cuam tshuam loj los ntawm kev nce nyiaj nce thiab kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, nrog cov nqi ntoo poob ntau dua 40% hauv thawj rau lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo. Lawv tuaj yeem poob tseem txuas ntxiv ua ntej qis qis.
Lumber tau bucked tag nrho uptrend nyob rau hauv cov khoom lag luam. S&P Goldman Sachs Cov Khoom Muag Index, suav nrog 24 kev sib pauv khoom lag luam yav tom ntej, tau dhia 26% hauv 2022 thawj ib nrab.
"Lumber tiag tiag muaj nws Ph.D. nyob rau hauv kev lag luam thiab yog qhov kawg canary nyob rau hauv lub thee mine thaum nws los ua ib tug coj qhia rau tag nrho lwm yam khoom muag, "hais tias Greg Kuta, tus thawj tswj hwm thiab CEO ntawm lumber broker Westline Capital Strategies. "Qhov kev hloov pauv tam sim no hauv cov nqi ntoo yog qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau ob qho tib si kev thov thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab nrawm heev los cuam tshuam cov kev hloov pauv hauv kev thov thiab kev xa khoom ntawm qib micro."
Lumber yav tom ntej tau nce 83% hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2021 raws li qhov kev thov rau vaj tse tawg. Nws xaus rau xyoo ntawd ntawm $ 1,147.90 ib txhiab board taw, tab sis poob kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm qhov nce hauv thawj ob lub hlis twg ntawm 2022. Ntawm cue ntawm canary, ntau lwm yam khoom lag luam tau pib poob, suav nrog roj, nplej, thiab tooj liab.
Qhov nce hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov paj laum, nrog rau "ib-tawm 2021 [kho thiab hloov kho] xav tau," tau hais los ua " cua daj cua dub zoo kawg nkaus hauv kev tsim kev xav tau kev puas tsuaj hauv vaj tse thiab ntoo," hais Kuta.
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau tsa tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 75 cov ntsiab lus hauv lub Rau Hli, qhov loj tshaj plaws nce txij li xyoo 1994, hauv kev sib zog los tswj kev nce nqi.
Scott Reaves, tus thawj coj ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv hav zoov ntawm Domain Timber Advisors hais tias "Kev ntxhov siab nyiaj txiag tau ua rau nce cov paj laum thiab kev lag luam pib qeeb, thiab cov neeg yuav ntoo tau ... pib qeeb lawv cov xaj,"
Kev tsim kho pib ntawm cov tsev tshiab hauv Asmeskas poob ntau dua 14% hauv lub Tsib Hlis, nrog rau txhua xyoo tus nqi ntawm tag nrho cov vaj tsev pib poob mus rau 1.55 lab, raws li Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam.
Cov nqi ntoo tau poob los ntawm "cov qib siab pom thoob plaws qhov kev sib kis," tab sis lawv tseem nyob siab dua li qib pom ua ntej muaj kev sib kis, hais Reaves. Lumber yav tom ntej pauv ib ncig ntawm $ 407 thaum pib ntawm 2020, thiab ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm $ 1,670.50 thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2021. Lawv sawv ntawm $ 679.30 thaum Lub Xya Hli 12.
Cov ntawv xov xwm sau npe
Barron Saib Ua Ntej
Tau txais ib nyas saib ua ntej ntawm cov dab neeg sab saum toj ntawm Barron cov ntawv xov xwm rau hnub so. Hnub vas Xuv yav tsaus ntuj ET.
Qhov kev txav mus rau hauv ntoo tej zaum yuav tau ua ntej ntawm nws tus kheej, hais tias Steve Loebner, tus thawj coj ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm Sherwood Lumber. Qhov tseeb yog tias thaum ib tsev neeg xav tau vaj tsev nyob qeeb, tseem muaj "kev lag luam loj heev hauv cov kav dej, thiab ntau tus neeg tsim khoom muaj [peb mus rau tsib] lub hlis ntawm cov khoom lag luam rov qab thaum lawv sim ua kom tiav cov haujlwm uas twb tau ua lawm. , ”nws hais.
Yog li, "peb tau ntsib nrog kev lag luam uas maj mam qeeb tag nrho, tab sis tsis muaj txhais tau tias poob ntawm pob tsuas," Loebner hais.
Lub caij no, CME Group yuav pib daim ntawv cog lus cog ntoo tshiab rau lub hli tom ntej, nrog qhov loj ntawm daim ntawv cog lus ntawm 27,500 board feet - plaub qhov loj ntawm daim ntawv cog lus tam sim no.
Kuta hais txog qhov loj ntawm daim ntawv cog lus tshiab raws li "tsheb thauj mus los," ib qho kev ntsuas tseem ceeb vim tias feem ntau ntawm cov neeg siv kawg, xws li cov khw muag khoom thiab cov neeg tsim tsev, yuav thiab muag los ntawm cov tsheb thauj khoom.
Nws hais tias "Nws yuav yog qhov kev hloov pauv zoo rau kev lag luam, ua rau muaj kev koom tes ntau ntxiv thiab cov nyiaj tau los, nrog rau lub tswv yim ntawm kev ua kom cov jaggedness ntawm lub ncov thiab hav hauv cov nqi ntoo," nws hais.
Rau lub xyoo tas los, Kuta pom cov nqi ntoo nyob hauv $ 400 txog $ 450 ntau ntawm qhov qis kawg, nrog cov nqi siab kawg hauv thaj tsam $ 650 txog $ 800.
"Kev ntshai kev poob qis, kev nce nqi nce ntxiv, thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm Fed yuav mus ntev hauv kev cuam tshuam rau txhua lub khw, suav nrog cov ntoo," Kuta hais. Tshwj tsis yog cov ntsiab lus txhawb nqa, "yuav tsis ntseeg heev hauv kev caum tus nqi nce siab."
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