(Bloomberg) - Lithium tus nqi tsis ntev los no vau thiab qhov kev cia siab tias cov khoom siv los ntawm cov mines tshiab tuaj yeem ua kom qhov poob qis yog ua rau muaj kev sib cav sib ceg hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob-tsheb roj teeb.
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Nws yog ib qho kev sib cav uas yog pitting ARK Investment Management Chief Executive Officer Cathie Wood tawm tsam qee lub suab nrov tshaj plaws.
Lithium carbonate nyob rau hauv Suav teb, tus qauv tseem ceeb, tau poob yuav luag 30% txij li thaum kov cov ntaub ntawv thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, kev thim rov qab los ntawm cov khoom siv tau nce ntau dua 14-fold txij li nruab nrab xyoo 2020 raws li cov neeg tsim khoom tau maj nrawm txhawm rau txhawm rau cov ntaub ntawv raw uas xav tau rau kev nthuav dav sai. ntawm lawv cov hluav taws xob lineups.
Cov cim ntawm kev muag khoom qeeb qeeb hauv Suav teb, cov lag luam EV saum toj kawg nkaus, nrog rau kev txhawj xeeb txog kev txiav nyiaj pab thiab destocking kev ua si thoob plaws lub roj teeb khoom siv tau tag nrho cov hnyav ntawm lithium qhov kev xav. Lub peev xwm cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom ntau ntxiv yog tam sim no tseem ceeb heev, nrog rau cov kwj ntawm kev nthuav dav lossis cov haujlwm tshiab uas tau cog lus tias yuav nce thiab ua haujlwm xyoo no.
Ntoo tau hais rau lub lim tiam dhau los tias qhov txawv txav ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov hlau tau yog "clarion hu" rau kev tsim khoom ntau dua, thiab cov lus teb los ntawm kev lag luam txhais tau hais tias "tsis muaj teeb meem ntau uas lithium yuav nyob rau hauv cov khoom siv ntau dhau." Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Hlau Kev Lag Luam Association, ib pawg thawj coj hauv kev lag luam, tau ceeb toom tias cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv tuaj yeem hnyav ntawm lithium tus nqi xyoo no, thaum BYD Co. tau hais tias nws cia siab tias cov hlau yuav ruaj khov hauv 2023.
Lwm tus suav nrog Joe Lowry, tus tsim ntawm lub tuam txhab tawm tswv yim thoob ntiaj teb Lithium, hais tias qhov kev thov tsis raug kwv yees thiab tias cov kws tshawb fawb no tsis suav nrog qhov nyuaj ntawm kev ruaj ntseg nyiaj txiag thiab tso cai rau cov mines tshiab.
Cov neeg muab khoom lag luam yog ntau bullish, ib yam nkaus. "Cov lus qhia thaum ntxov yog ob qho tib si uas cov khoom lag luam cathode thiab cov khoom muag roj teeb hauv Suav teb tau poob qis, uas yog ib qho kev qhia zoo rau kev muag lithium," Kent Masters, CEO ntawm Albemarle Corp., ib qho ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb, hais rau cov tub ua lag luam lub lim tiam dhau los. Lub tuam txhab cia siab tias "txuas ntxiv tus nqi zoo rau lithium" xyoo no, raws li tsab ntawv tshaj tawm.
Lwm qhov teeb meem uas kuv cov npoj yaig Mark Burton thiab kuv tau hais ua ntej yog seb cov tuam txhab tsim muaj tsawg dua thiab cov tebchaws yuav tuaj yeem xa khoom raws li tau cog lus tseg.
Qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb tshwj xeeb rau qee tus ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov neeg ua haujlwm tseem ceeb, uas tau tso kev cia siab rau kev ua tiav ntawm pawg ntawm cov haujlwm tshiab thoob plaws Africa. Lub teb chaws tau tshwm sim los ua qhov hotspot rau Suav lithium kev nqis peev, thiab tab tom dhau los ua qhov cuam tshuam rau Asmeskas kev siv zog los tsim nws tus kheej cov khoom siv sib txuas nrog cov neeg lag luam dawb thiab lwm cov phooj ywg xws li Canada thiab Australia.
Suav refiners tab tom npaj rau cov miners hauv Australia kom txav mus rau hauv cov nqi qis dua cov tshuaj lom neeg tsim khoom, uas tuaj yeem txwv qhov ntim ntawm raw khoom muaj rau kev xa tawm, raws li Peng Xu, kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm BloombergNEF.
Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. tau nqis peev hauv Goulamina mine hauv Mali, thaum Chengxin Lithium Group Co. muaj kev txaus siab hauv Zimbabwe. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. thiab ib chav tsev ntawm cov tuam txhab roj teeb sab saum toj Kawm Amperex Technology Co. yog cov tub ua lag luam hauv ib qhov project hauv Democratic Republic of Congo.
Ntau lub tebchaws African yuav koom nrog cov neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm lithium raw cov ntaub ntawv mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo caum, raws li cov ntaub ntawv sau los ntawm BloombergNEF. Ntau lub teb chaws no twb yog cov neeg xa khoom loj ntawm cov hlau xws li tooj liab thiab cobalt rau cov tuam txhab Suav uas xa cov ntaub ntawv rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm lawv tus kheej hauv tsev refineries.
Jason Holden, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas cov hlau loj thiab cov mining ntawm S&P Global Commodity Insights tau hais tias "Qhov chaw pheej hmoo tsawg tshaj plaws thiab qhov zoo tshaj plaws rau cov tuam txhab Suav yog tej zaum qhov chaw lawv tau ua tiav yav dhau los,"
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