Ib yam dab tsi tsis ncaj ncees lawm nrog kev lag luam Tshuag, raws li tus kws tshaj lij tshaj lij ntawm JPMorgan.
Cov khoom lag luam tau tawm tsam rov qab los ntawm lawv qhov qis dua 2022 ntshai ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag nyuaj muab txoj kev cia siab yuav muaj tsis yog ib qho tsaws kiag li ua tsaug rau kev ua lag luam muaj zog thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag.
Hauv qab ntawm qhov chaw, txawm li cas los xij, teeb meem tuaj yeem ua rau brewing. Marko Kolanovic, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam thiab tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb thoob ntiaj teb ntawm Wall Street bank, ntshai cov khw muag khoom lag luam tsis ua raws li cov teeb liab liab los ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag hauv kev ntseeg yuam kev. nce nqi twb swb lawm.
"Ntau tshaj 20% ntawm tag nrho cov lag luam ntim [yog] los ntawm cov khw muag khoom xaj," Kolanovic sau hauv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Wednesday, ntxiv tias qhov no tau ze rau cov ntaub ntawv siab.
Thaum cov neeg ua lag luam nyiam ua lag luam nkag mus rau hauv cov khoom muaj txiaj ntsig siab tshaj plaws uas lawv tuaj yeem nrhiav tau, xws li cov khoom lag luam meme, cov thawj coj nyiaj tau ntsiag to coj lawv cov lus taw qhia los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve uas tseem ntseeg tias nws txoj hauj lwm tackling kev nce nqi yog tam sim no nyob ze ua tiav, nws tau sau tseg.
Cov tswv lag luam tam sim no xav tau 4.6% rov qab los qiv lawv cov nyiaj rau ob xyoos hauv kev lag luam ultrasafe US Treasury. Qhov kev pheej hmoo-dawb tus nqi no tau nce mus rau theem tsis tau pom dua 2007 thiab yuav tsum tau kos nyiaj ntau ntxiv rau hauv cov nyiaj tau los tas li, raws li Kolanovic.
Nrog cov tub ua lag luam tsis chasing tawm los hauv khw lag luam, cov Nasdaq yog li ntawd yuav tsum nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm kev kho, nws hais.
Hloov chaw nws tseem nce siab, qhov tseeb nws tau hais rau cov neeg lag luam muag khoom. Cov tub lag luam hobby no feem ntau ua raws cov lus qhia txog nyiaj txiag ntawm YouTube influencers lossis forums nyiam Reddit's WallStreetBets, uas ntxias lawv nrog cov lus cog tseg ntawm generational wealth creation.
Qhov no txhawb kev nqis peev hauv cov tuam txhab muaj teeb meem xws li cov yeeb yaj kiab ua yeeb yaj kiab AMC, uas nws cov khoom lag luam tau dhia 30% txog rau xyoo no. Fitness tech firm Peloton nce 80%, thaum sib koom ntawm cov neeg muag khoom siv tsheb nyuaj Carvana muaj ze li peb npaug nyob rau hauv tus nqi txij thaum pib ntawm 2023.
Tsaib no, Bed Bath & Beyond's shares raug xa mus rau kev caij tsheb qus tom qab nws tau raug xaiv ib lub npe hu ua meme Tshuag - ib qho qauv uas ib lub tuam txhab sib koom skyrocket tom qab tau txais cov koob nrov nrov ntawm kev sib raug zoo.
Kolanovic ceeb toom ntawm cov khw muag khoom lag luam 'kev lag luam tus qauv rau hnub Wednesday "Qhov kev xav thoob plaws yog exuberance thiab kev ntshaw."
'Volmageddon' 2.0
Nws tsis yog tsuas yog nyiaj txiag mob cov tuam txhab uas nyiam cov neeg lag luam muag khoom. Siab beta npe nyiam Tesla thiab MicroStrategy uas muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua thiab rov qab los dua li cov khoom lag luam hauv qab kuj muaj ob npaug ntawm tus nqi dhau rau lub lim tiam dhau los.
Lub caij no, cryptocurrencies zoo li tus dev-themed meme token Floki kuj tau nce siab, thiab txhua yam nws nquag siv yog Elon Musk. tso ib daim duab ntawm nws tus tsiaj pooch on Twitter xa lawv ticking upward — cwj pwm reminiscent ntawm lub 2021 Shiba Inu npib mania.
Ntau dua li kev nqis peev hauv ntau hom kev lag luam uas siv lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov paj tau paj, Kolanovic tau hais tias, cov neeg ua lag luam pib ua lag luam no tau tawm ntawm lawv txoj hauv kev los xaiv kev sib ntaus nrog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lub hom phiaj ntawm kev ua kom txias ntawm kev lag luam.
"Tus cwj pwm no tsis yog kev sib ntaus xwb tab sis kuj thuam Fed, nrog crypto, meme stocks, thiab cov tuam txhab tsis muaj txiaj ntsig teb zoo tshaj plaws rau Fed kev sib txuas lus," nws sau.
Nws tau tshaj tawm cov lus ceeb toom txog qhov kev hem thawj uas tshwm sim los ntawm qhov muaj koob npe ntawm cov khoom pheej hmoo siab - xws li "xoom hnub kom tas sij hawm" (0DTE) daim ntawv cog lus - nyiam ntawm ntau tus neeg lag luam muag khoom.
"Cov ntim hauv cov kev xaiv luv luv no yog qhov loj heev," nws hais ntxiv, kwv yees qhov ntim ntawm 0DTE, kev cog lus txhua hnub thiab txhua lub limtiam, nce txog $ 1 trillion txhua hnub.
Cov pab pawg no muaj kev xav thiab nyiam ntawm cov tub ua lag luam pib ua lag luam rau qhov kev pheej hmoo siab ua thawj koom ruam hauv cov khoom lag luam tsis hloov pauv thiab cov kev xaiv txhais tau hais tias txhua tus tuaj yeem xaus rau qhov kev tawm mus tag nrho ib zaug thaum qhov kev kho dav dav invariably tshwm sim, nws hais. Qhov no tuaj yeem teeb tsa kev lag luam rau qhov rov ua dua ntawm 2018's "Volmageddon” tsoo, nyob rau hauv uas lub voj voog vicious ntawm muag begat ntau muag.
Kolanovic ceeb toom tias "Thaum keeb kwm tsis rov hais dua, nws feem ntau sib dhos," Kolanovic ceeb toom.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune:
5 sab hustles qhov twg koj tuaj yeem khwv tau tshaj $ 20,000 toj ib xyoo - tag nrho thaum ua haujlwm hauv tsev
Millennials 'tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov nuj nqis: Yuav ua li cas lub teb chaws cov neeg ua haujlwm loj tshaj plaws sib tw tawm tsam lwm tus
Qhov zoo tshaj plaws 5 txoj hauv kev kom tau txais cov nyiaj tau los passive
Qhov no yog nyiaj npaum li cas koj yuav tsum tau khwv tau txhua xyoo kom yooj yim yuav tsev $600,000
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-top-strategist-warns-markets-175723967.html