JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic tau zam los ntawm kev sib tw thaum ntxov 2023.
Hloov chaw, Institutional Investor hall-of-famer is bracing for a 10% or more correction in the first half of this year, qhia cov tub ua lag luam nws yog "tawm tsis zoo" ntawm kev ua lag luam.
“Lub hauv paus yog deterioration. Thiab, kev ua lag luam tau nce mus. Yog li, qhov ntawd yuav tsum muaj kev sib cav nyob rau qee lub sijhawm, "tus thawj coj ntawm lub tuam txhab tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam thiab kev tshawb fawb thoob ntiaj teb tus thawj coj hais rau CNBC's "Nyiaj ceev nyiaj” nyob rau hnub Tuesday.
Kolanovic tau txiav nws lub tuam txhab kev cuam tshuam rau cov khoom lag luam lub lim tiam dhau los kom poob phaus. Hauv tsab ntawv tsis ntev los no, nws tau ceeb toom tias kev ua lag luam tsis yog tam sim no tus nqi hauv kev lag luam poob qis. Nws lub hauv paus rooj plaub yog ib qho nyuaj tsaws.
Nws tau hais tias "Cov paj laum luv luv tau hloov pauv ntau hauv rau lub hlis dhau los, thiab tej zaum lawv yuav tseem mus ntxiv me ntsis thiab nyob ntawd," nws hais. “Cov neeg siv khoom tau txais nuj nqis ntau. Cov paj laum tau nce. Cov neeg siv khoom muaj zog, thiab qhov ntawd yog hom ntawm peb qhov kev tshawb fawb xyoo tas los… Tab sis raws li lub sijhawm nce mus, lawv tsawg dua thiab tsis muaj zog. "
Kolanovic, uas yog tus thib peb tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees los ntawm Institutional Investor rau lub sijhawm kaum ob, hais txog cov teeb meem tshwm sim hauv cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb tsis ntev los no - suav nrog cov kev pabcuam ISM, qhov muag thiab Philadelphia Fed Survey yog vim li cas thiaj ua rau poob qis.
Kolanovic hais tias "Peb xav tias tej yam ua ntej tig mus rau sab qab teb, ua rau muaj kev phem ntau dua," Kolanovic hais.
Txawm li cas los xij, tech-heavy Nasdaq yog nce ntau tshaj 8% txog rau tam sim no xyoo no, thiab cov S&P 500 yog nce yuav luag 5%. Nws kaw hnub Tuesday ntawm 4,016.95.
Nws teev cov kev txhim kho zoo suav nrog Tuam Tshoj txoj kev rov qhib dua los ntawm Covid-19 kev kaw cia thiab tsis muaj zog duas rau kev ua lag luam txaus siab. Kolanovic ntseeg tias lawv tau pab tsim cov lus piav qhia qhov tsis zoo yog tom qab peb thiab kev poob qis "yuav ua li cas zoo nkauj" tau tshwm sim xyoo tas los.
"Kuv tsuas yog tsis xav tias ntawm 5% tus nqi peb tuaj yeem muaj qhov kev lag luam no ua haujlwm," said Kolanovic, uas tau sau tseg tias kev ncaj ncees thiab cov peev nyiaj lag luam tsis tuaj yeem nyob hauv ib puag ncig zoo li no. "Ib yam yuav tsum tau muab, thiab Fed yuav tsum flinch."
Thiab, nws tuaj yeem tshwm sim xyoo no raws li kev txiav nqi.
"Qee lub sijhawm, lawv yuav [Fed] thim rov qab nws. Yog li, lo lus nug loj yog qhov twg. Puas yog [S&P ntawm] 3,600? 3,400? 3,200? Peb tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab heev. Tab sis peb xav tias qis dua yog qhov kev taw qhia, "nws hais. "Muaj qee qhov kev sib kis lossis qee yam uas tshwm sim tsis tau xav txog."
Kolanovic cov npe Cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj tuam txhab nyiaj thiab nyiaj ntsuab raws li qhov chaw siv tau los nkaum rau tam sim no.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/outright-negative-jpmorgans-kolanovic-sees-correction-hard-landing.html