(Bloomberg) - Cov tub ua lag luam Tshuag yuav tsum tsis txhob ntxhov siab txog US cov nyiaj txiag yield curves inverting xwb tsis tau, JPMorgan Chase & Co. cov tswv yim hais tias, raws li ib tug thoob ntiaj teb daim ntawv cog lus selloff sib sau ua ke pace.
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"Kev poob qis feem ntau tsis pib ua ntej ntawm qhov nkhaus inverting, thiab cov hlau lead-lag tuaj yeem yog qhov tseem ceeb, ntev li 2 xyoos," cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Mislav Matejka tau sau hauv tsab ntawv. "Ntxiv mus, nyob rau lub sijhawm no cov nyiaj tau los zoo li yuav yeej cov ntawv cog lus zoo," lawv hais ntxiv tias qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees keeb kwm tshwm sim nyob ib ncig ntawm ib xyoos tom qab kev hloov pauv.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam nyob rau hauv chav kawm rau lawv lub hlis zoo tshaj plaws rau xyoo no, kev ua tsov rog hauv Ukraine thiab qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce siab ntxiv los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve kom tswj kev nce nqi. Txawm hais tias qhov nce ntawm cov nqi khoom lag luam tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam kev lag luam, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam niaj hnub no, cov khoom lag luam tau los txog tam sim no tseem muaj zog tiv thaiv kev lag luam jitters.
JPMorgan cov kws tshaj lij hais tias "Kev lag luam tsuas yog pib nruab nrab ntawm 16 lub hlis tom qab kev hloov pauv hauv kev sib kis, thiab tsis tau ua ntej," JPMorgan tus kws tshaj lij tau hais. Raws li 10-xyoo-2-xyoo nkhaus "tsis yog tam sim no inverted tam sim no, lub moos tseem tsis tau pib ticking," thiab "cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa txaus ntshai-khoom plig rau lub sijhawm nruab nrab," raws li daim ntawv ceeb toom.
Ntau tus neeg tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tau nce qib yog qhov kev lag luam kev lag luam tau nqis peev ntau hauv cov nyiaj poob qis, thaum tag nrho cov cim qhia tias Asmeskas kev lag luam tseem nyob hauv kev noj qab haus huv zoo. Qee qhov kev yuav khoom tsis sib xws tam sim no tshwm sim. Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator tab tom yuav khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam thawj zaug txij li pib muaj kev sib kis thoob plaws lub Peb Hlis 2020.
Yuav kom paub meej, tsis yog txhua tus neeg yog sanguine. Morgan Stanley cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Michael Wilson tau hais rau hnub Monday tias kev loj hlob los ntawm Fed txoj cai hloov pauv, kev nce nqi siab thiab kev ua tsov rog hauv Ukraine "tsis raug nqi." Qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev pheej hmoo yuav tsum siab dua, lawv tau hais tias, txo qis US nyiaj txiag rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov hnyav dhau.
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