JPMorgan Strategists hais tias Tshuag Rally yuav ploj mus

(Bloomberg) - Cov tub ua lag luam Tshuag uas tau dhau los ua qhov zoo tshaj plaws txog kev lag luam kev lag luam tau teeb tsa rau kev poob siab, raws li JPMorgan Chase & Co. cov tswv yim.

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Nws yog ntxov dhau los hais tias kev lag luam poob qis tawm ntawm lub rooj tom qab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj kev tawm tsam taug kev nyuaj, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog vim tias txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam tuaj yeem muaj kev lag luam ntawm ib mus rau ob xyoos, ib pab neeg coj los ntawm Mislav Matejka tau sau hauv tsab ntawv. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav zoo li pivot nkaus xwb hauv kev teb rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm macroeconomic backdrop ntau dua li kev lag luam tam sim no xav tau, lawv tau hais.

"Keeb kwm yav dhau los, cov khoom lag luam feem ntau tsis nyob hauv qab ua ntej Fed tau nce siab nrog kev txiav, thiab peb tsis tau pom qhov qis dua ua ntej Fed tseem tsis tau taug kev," cov kws tshaj lij tau sau rau hnub Monday. "Qhov kev puas tsuaj tau ua tiav, thiab qhov kev poob qis tseem yuav ua ntej peb."

Cov peev nyiaj thoob ntiaj teb tau sib sau ua ke rau xyoo no raws li kev cia siab rau Fed pivot, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev rov qhib dua thiab Europe qhov kev daws teeb meem hluav taws xob tau muab kev txhawb nqa. Tab sis cov cim qhia tias kev nce nqi tseem yog qhov teeb meem tsis tu ncua hauv Asmeskas tab tom pib qhia ib zaug ntxiv, hnyav rau kev lag luam. Cov lus tawm tswv yim los ntawm hawkish Fed cov tub ceev xwm kuj tau ua rau muaj kev ntshai tias US cov nqi tuaj yeem nce siab dua li qhov xav tau yav dhau los.

Thawj peb lub hlis twg yog qhov yuav ua rau qhov taw qhia siab tshaj plaws rau cov khoom lag luam xyoo no, hais tias Matejka, uas tau ceev faj txog kev xav txog cov khoom lag luam mus txog rau thaum xaus xyoo tas los tom qab tseem tshuav qhov zoo rau ntau xyoo 2022. Nws pab neeg cia siab tias qhov kev tawm tsam yuav ploj mus thaum muaj cov cim ceeb toom. los ntawm cov cim qhia nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb xws li kev hloov pauv ntau ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo thiab cov nyiaj xa khoom mus qis dua hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Asmeskas.

JPMorgan cov kws tshaj lij tsis yog ib leeg hauv lawv qhov kev xav tsis zoo. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson - qeb thib 1 hauv xyoo tas los Institutional Investor daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas thaum nws raug kwv yees qhov muag tawm hauv cov khoom lag luam - hais tias lub khw muag khoom sib tw "tau morphed mus rau hauv qhov kev xav tsis txaus ntseeg raws li Fed ncua / pivot uas tsis tuaj" hauv ib daim ntawv rau hnub Sunday. Thiab lub lim tiam dhau los, Bank of America Corp. cov tswv yim coj los ntawm Michael Hartnett tau hais tias qhov kev ncua sij hawm tuaj txog ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam yuav hnyav rau cov khoom lag luam hauv ib nrab xyoo.

Zaj dab neeg tseem ntxiv

Hnub Monday, Citigroup Inc. cov kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm Robert Buckland tau hais tias lawv yuav tsis caum MSCI Txhua Lub Tebchaws Ntiaj Teb Index siab dua vim nws twb tau ua lag luam nyob rau saum kawg ntawm lawv lub hom phiaj. Lawv kuj tau hais tias feem ntau cov kev lag luam tsis sib xws uas hu rau muag cov neeg yeej xyoo tas los thiab yuav cov neeg poob tau teeb tsa, ntxiv tias lawv nyiam cov khoom lag luam roj rau cov thev naus laus zis uas tau nce mus txog tam sim no hauv 2023.

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