""Koj tsis tuaj yeem muaj kev poob qis yog tias tib neeg tseem muaj lawv txoj haujlwm thiab tsis muaj teeb meem tau txais lawv txoj haujlwm tom ntej. Yog li kuv tsis quav ntsej qhov NBER hais. … Yog tias tib neeg tsis raug rho tawm haujlwm, ces nws tsis yog kev poob nyiaj txiag. ""
Qhov ntawd yog Josh Brown, tus thawj coj ntawm Ritholtz Wealth Management, nyob rau ntawm MarketWatch's Best New Ideas in Money festival rau hnub Thursday.
Brown, tus cwj pwm CNBC uas nws lub tuam txhab New York City-based peev pab tswv yim tswj ntau dua $ 2 nphom, koom nrog nws "Compound & Friends" peev podcast cohost Michael Batnick los tham nrog MarketWatch xov xwm editor Joy Wiltermuth ntawm lub koob tsheej. Peb tau tham txog seb puas muaj kev lag luam tseem tab tom tos, hais txog tus chij liab hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam tam sim no - thiab tseem hais txog vim li cas qhov no yog lub sijhawm rau cov tub ua lag luam yuav mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam, txawm tias nws tsis zoo li ib qho.
"Nws zoo li zoo li muaj kev lag luam qeeb qeeb uas txhua tus paub tab tom los, tab sis nws tseem tsis tau tshwm sim hauv cov ntaub ntawv," Batnick tau hais.
Batnick, uas yog tus thawj coj ntawm Ritholtz Wealth Management thiab khiav "Tus Neeg Ua Lag Luam Tsis Txaus Siab" blog, ntxiv, "Cov neeg siv khoom zoo." Nws tau rub ntau daim duab qhia qhia tias cov neeg Asmeskas feem ntau tseem them lawv cov nqi raws sijhawm, thiab rau ntau tus neeg, lawv daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas tam sim no zoo dua li lawv tau ua ntej muaj kev sib kis. Ob tus txiv neej kuj tau sau tseg tias cov lej ua haujlwm tau muaj zog. "Cov ntaub ntawv tau hais tias cov neeg siv khoom zoo," Batnick rov hais dua.
Brown tau tso dag tias Fed lub rooj zaum Jerome Powell qhov kev txiav txim siab kom nruj tiv thaiv kev nce nqi los ntawm kev nce cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm tsoomfwv cov nyiaj los ntawm 0.75 feem pua. Hnub Wednesday tau ceeb toom nws txog ib tug tub ntxhais kawm uas sim kom tau txais credit ntxiv tom qab ncua sij hawm txhua xyoo.
MarketWatch editor Joy Wiltermuth (sab laug) nrog Michael Batnick (center) thiab Josh Brown ntawm Ritholtz Wealth Management.
MarketWatch
"Jerome Powell zoo li tus txiv leej tub uas tsis tau tag nrho nws cov ntawv ua tom tsev tag nrho lub xyoo, thiab tom qab ntawd ua kev kho mob rau tus kws qhia ntawv, hnub kawg ntawm tsev kawm ntawv nws los rau hauv thiab nws tau sau nkauj ua yeeb yam, thiab nws yuav ua nws," nws hais tias, tau txais ib tug luag loj los ntawm cov neeg coob coob.
Tab sis ntawm daim ntawv loj dua, ob tus txiv neej pom zoo li ntawd kev lag luam vaj tsev "yog flashing nyob rau hauv ci liab" tam sim no. Brown hais tias "Yog tias koj txhawj xeeb txog vaj tse, koj txhawj xeeb txog qhov yog," Brown hais.
Qhov ntawd yog vim hais tias vaj tse cuam tshuam rau ntau qhov chaw ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam sab nraud ntawm vaj tse, suav nrog kev qiv nyiaj thiab tuam txhab nyiaj txiag, kev tsim kho thiab kho dua tshiab, nrog rau kev ua haujlwm raug cai, nws tau sau tseg. "Nws tau hais nyob qhov twg ntawm 15% mus rau 18% ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam muaj qee yam ua rau vaj tse," nws hais.
""Yog tias koj txhawj xeeb txog vaj tse, koj txhawj xeeb txog qhov yog." "
Brown ntxiv tias kev ua lag luam-kev ua lag luam npau taws tau nce siab nrog "Saturday Night Live" Zillow sketch uas piv swiping los ntawm cov npe vaj tse los saib porn. Brown hais tias "Nws yog ib qho kev ua si zoo heev," Brown hais. "Kuv xav tias lawv yeej tso lawv tus ntiv tes rau qhov zeitgeist yog [thaum lub sijhawm 2020 COVID kaw], thaum tsis muaj dab tsi ua ntxiv tsuas yog saib seb koj tus neeg nyob ze lub tsev zoo npaum li cas thiab xav txog nws, vim tias peb tau nyob hauv plaub qhov no. phab ntsa.”
Nyob rau sab ntxeev, Brown thiab Batnick tau hais tias qhov kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam hauv vaj tse, raws li cov neeg ua haujlwm txhawj xeeb - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov neeg nyob hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag - tuaj yeem xav tias tsis muaj kev nyab xeeb dhau los ua kom "tso tawm" lossis xav kom lawv tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus. ua haujlwm los ntawm txhua qhov chaw. Kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem ua rau cov neeg ua haujlwm txhawj xeeb rov qab los rau hauv chaw ua haujlwm thiab xa rov qab qee qhov nyiaj rau cov tswv ntiav.
"Xyoo tas los yog ib puag ncig uas koj tuaj yeem ua tus ntiv tes nruab nrab rau koj tus thawj coj yog tias koj nyob hauv nyiaj txiag. Ntau tus neeg zoo li, 'Hav, koj paub dab tsi, qhov tseeb, Kuv yuav nyob hauv Hamptons lub caij ntuj sov no. Qhov no yog qhov uas kuv ua kuv txoj haujlwm txij li tam sim no,' "Brown hais.
"Nyob rau hauv kev txom nyem, nws tau hu nkauj rau koj noj hmo dua," nws hais ntxiv. "Thiab koj xav tau lub ntsej muag nrog koj tus thawj coj, thiab koj xav nyob rau hauv lub zeem muag ntawm cov thawj coj. Yog li paradoxically, qhov zoo tshaj plaws uas yuav tshwm sim rau lub tuam txhab, xav tias lawv tus kheej daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas yog OK, yog kev lag luam - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyiaj txiag, vim tias tam sim ntawd, koj yuav pom cov tsev ua haujlwm nrog cov neeg ua haujlwm sai heev. "
Thiab Brown tau sau tseg tias thaum muaj ntau tus tub ua lag luam thiab cov neeg siv khoom xav tias "tsis zoo siab" thiab txaus siab los ntawm cov xov xwm tam sim no, nws yog lub sijhawm tseem ceeb los nqis peev hauv kev lag luam thaum ntau cov khoom lag luam raug nqi qis dua li lawv tau nyob hauv xyoo. Nws hu nws lub paradox ntawm kev nqis peev.
""Tsuas txaus siab rau lub sijhawm koj nyob hauv. Nws tsis xav tias zoo, tab sis lub sijhawm tam sim no nthuav tawm lawv tus kheej." "
"Nws ib txwm yuav hnov qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm lub sijhawm phem tshaj plaws, thiab nws ib txwm yuav hnov qhov phem tshaj plaws ntawm lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws," nws hais. "Tsuas txaus siab rau lub sijhawm koj nyob hauv. Nws tsis xav tias zoo, tab sis lub sijhawm tam sim no nthuav tawm lawv tus kheej."
"Lub Reformed Broker" kev sib tham nrog Brown thiab Batnick yog ib qho ntawm ntau qhov xwm txheej ntawm MarketWatch's inaugural Best New Ideas in Money Festival lub lim tiam no. MarketWatch cov kws kho saum toj kawg nkaus tau tuav Q&As nrog kev nqis peev cov lus dab neeg thiab cov neeg ua lag luam zoo li Carl Icahn thiab Ray Dalio kom hnov lawv cov lus qhia txog nyiaj txiag. Thiab tau muaj kev sib tham txog cov haujlwm kub xws li crypto thiab cannabis, kev cob qhia los tswj koj cov nyiaj zoo li tus kws tshaj lij thiab ntau dua.
Tau txais kev nkag siab txog kev nqis peev thiab tswj koj cov nyiaj txiag. Cov neeg hais lus suav nrog cov tub ua lag luam Josh Brown thiab Vivek Ramaswamy; ntxiv rau cov ncauj lus xws li ESG kev nqis peev, EVs, chaw thiab fintech. Cov Tswv Yim Tshiab Zoo Tshaj Plaws hauv Nyiaj Txiag tseem muaj hnub Thursday. Sau npe tuaj koom ntawm tus kheej lossis zoo.
Koj tuaj yeem sau npe rau MW's YouTube channel mus ntes tag nrho cov yeeb yaj duab sib tham.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/josh-brown-if-people-dont-get-fired-then-its-not-a-recession-11663879779?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo