Tojsiab
Txoj haujlwm qhib thaum Lub Yim Hli poob poob qis mus rau theem qis tshaj hauv ntau tshaj ib xyoos, kos npe rau qhov uas yuav yog ib qho kev tos ntev ntev tias kev ua lag luam kub kub thaum kawg pib txias vim yog Federal Reserve cov paj laum hikes - txais tos txoj kev loj hlob rau cov tub ua lag luam tab sis muaj kev cuam tshuam txog kev kos npe rau ntau lab tus neeg Asmeskas poob haujlwm.
Qhov 1.2 lab poob rau hauv txoj haujlwm qhib yog thawj qhov taw qhia los taw qhia "unambiguously" rau a … [+]
txais
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Muaj 10.1 lab txoj haujlwm qhib thaum kawg lub Yim Hli - poob los ntawm 1.1 lab los ntawm ib lub hlis dhau los rau qhov loj tshaj ib hlis poob txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2020 thiab poob qis ntawm qhov kev kwv yees hu rau ze li ntawm 11.1 lab qhib, raws li Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm tau qhib txoj haujlwm. thiab kev ua haujlwm hloov pauv daim ntawv qhia tso tawm hnub Tuesday.
Qhov loj tshaj plaws txo qis yog nyob rau hauv kev kho mob, kev pab cuam thiab khw muag khoom lag luam, nrog qhib poob los ntawm 236,000, 183,000 thiab 143,000, raws li, raws li tus naj npawb ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm tseem me ntsis hloov ntawm 6.3 lab.
Hauv cov lus xa email, Pantheon Macro tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Ian Shepherdson tau hu cov ntaub ntawv "thawj qhov pom tseeb ntawm kev xav tau kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog" thiab muaj peev xwm ua "kev pom zoo" rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev ua haujlwm thaum ntxov xyoo tom ntej, tab sis nws kuj tau hais tias cov ntaub ntawv, yog tias muaj xwm txheej zoo sib xws, tuaj yeem ua tau. thawb Fed kom yooj yim rau kev nce siab ntawm cov paj laum uas tau ua rau kev lag luam qeeb qeeb thiab cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam nyuaj.
Shepherdson taw qhia tias tam sim no muaj txog 1.67 txoj haujlwm qhib rau txhua tus neeg poob haujlwm, tseem nce siab tab sis nqis los ntawm 1.97 yav dhau los thiab zoo li yuav poob rau lub hlis tom ntej uas tau poob rau lub Yim Hli.
Txawm hais tias lub plunging qhib txhais tau tias tsawg dua kev xaiv rau 6 lab poob hauj lwm Cov neeg nyob hauv Asmeskas, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Tom Essaye ntawm Sevens Report tau hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav xav pom cov cim ntawm kev xav tau yooj yim - thiab kev poob nyiaj sai dua - txhawm rau txhawm rau txuas ntxiv tsis ntev los no. kev pab rally.
"Lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb rau cov kev taw qhia nyob ze yog qhov kev tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm qhia rau peb rau hnub Friday," hais tias Ally tus kws tshaj lij tus kws tshaj lij Lindsey Bell, sau tseg tias cov ntaub ntawv yuav tsum tau ua raws, lossis luv luv, kev cia siab hu rau 250,000 txoj haujlwm tshiab kawg. hli nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav ua lag luam mus ntxiv.
Kev Nkag Siab Hais
Shepherdson hais tias, "Qhov no yog thawj qhov kev taw qhia los taw qhia tsis meej ... rau qhov pom tseeb qeeb ntawm kev thov kev ua haujlwm," Shepherdson hais, txawm hais tias nws ceeb toom tias tseem muaj qhov tsis paub tseeb. "Yog tias nws tseem nyob rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej no, thiab cov nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb poob ntau npaum li peb xav tau, Fed yuav tsis nce mus txog 125 lub ntsiab lus los ntawm [xyoo kawg]."
Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb
Yog tias tsis suav nrog Covid kev lag luam cuam tshuam tam sim ntawd rau kev lag luam, qhov kev qhib haujlwm tshiab tshaj plaws yog qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txhua hli txij li xyoo 2009.
Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb
Txawm hais tias cov hnab ris ntawm kev lag luam twb rov qab los ntawm Fed txoj cai hawkish, kev lag luam kev lag luam tseem muaj zog, muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev ua phem. Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb kos npe ntawm lub zog, thawj zaug thov nyiaj poob haujlwm poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob poob ceeb thawj nyob rau hauv lub kos npe rau ntawm lub zog tseem ceeb tshaj. Txawm li cas los xij, ntau tus kws tshaj lij hais tias nws yog qhov kev zam tsis tau tias kev ua lag luam yuav pib txias sai sai. "Nws muaj peev xwm hais tias tus nqi poob haujlwm tuaj yeem maj mam nce siab dua thiab cov nyiaj ua haujlwm txias yam tsis muaj kev lag luam poob qis - tab sis nws yeej tsis tau tshwm sim ua ntej," Bill Adams, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Comerica Bank hais.
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
Kev Lag Luam Lag Luam qhib loj li nws zoo li tsim kom tau txais txiaj ntsig loj (Forbes)
Technical Recession Confirmed: Economy Shrank 0.6% Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj Kawg, Kev Tshaj Tawm Kawg GDP (Forbes)
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/10/04/job-openings-post-biggest-drop-in-two-years-in-ominous-sign-for-labor-market/