Jeremy Grantham ceeb toom 'kev txom nyem' looms li Tshuag 'superbubble' yuav tawg

"Ib qho ntawm cov yam ntxwv no yog kev sib tw dais-kev lag luam tom qab pib qhov kev poob qis ntawm kev poob qis tab sis ua ntej kev lag luam tau pib tsis zoo, raws li nws ib txwm muaj thaum superbubbles tawg," Grantham hais. "Qhov no, nyob rau hauv tag nrho peb qhov xwm txheej dhau los, tau zoo dua li ib nrab ntawm kev lag luam thawj zaug poob, ntxias cov tub lag luam uas tsis muaj kev cia siab rov qab los rau lub sijhawm rau kev lag luam rov qab los, tsuas yog ua phem dua, thiab kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. Lub caij ntuj sov lub rally no kom deb li deb tau zoo kawg nkaus haum tus qauv. "

Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis thaum thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 vim tias cov tub ua lag luam xav tias kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv yuav ua rau muaj hawkish Federal Reserve. S&P 500 tau kaw ntawm qhov qis xyoo no ntawm 3,666.77 thaum Lub Rau Hli 16, ua ntej surging tshaj lub caij ntuj sov nrog rau lwm cov khoom lag luam cov qauv ntsuas thaum cov neeg ua lag luam zoo siab tshaj qhov qhia tau tias qhov kev nce nqi siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo caum tau yooj yim. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell tsis ntev los no xaus qhov rally nrog nws lub Yim Hli 26 hais lus ntawm Jackson Hole, Wyo., kev sib tham txog kev lag luam, tshem tawm cov txiaj ntsig ntawm lub hlis no thaum nws rov hais dua tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav ua nruj rau nws txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag kom tswj tau cov nyiaj nce ntxiv. Nws ceeb toom tias Fed yuav tawm tsam kev nce nqi kom txog thaum ua tiav txoj haujlwm, txawm tias nws yuav ua rau muaj mob rau tsev neeg thiab kev lag luam.

Grantham tau hais tias "Lub khw muag khoom hauv Asmeskas tseem kim heev thiab kev nce nyiaj txiag zoo li lub xyoo no ib txwm ua rau muaj ntau yam, txawm tias qeeb dua li lub sijhawm no," Grantham hais. "Tab sis tam sim no cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb kuj tau pib ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj loj heev thiab xav tsis thoob: Nruab nrab ntawm COVID hauv Suav teb, kev ua tsov rog hauv Tebchaws Europe, zaub mov thiab hluav taws xob teeb meem, kev kaw nyiaj txiag nruj, thiab ntau dua, qhov kev cia siab yog deb deb tshaj qhov yuav tau pom nyob rau lub Ib Hlis." 

Grantham tau ceeb toom nyob rau hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj tias Tebchaws Meskas tau mus txog qhov kawg ntawm "nplua nuj" hla thoob plaws cov khoom lag luam, cov ntawv cog lus, vaj tsev thiab cov khoom lag luam tom qab kev txhawb nqa loj heev thaum lub sijhawm COVID-19 muaj thoob qhov txhia chaw.

Saib: 'Zoo hmoo! Peb txhua tus yuav xav tau nws': Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam mus txog qhov kawg ntawm 'superbubble,' hais tias Jeremy Grantham

Nyob rau hauv nws daim ntawv Wednesday, Grantham tau hais tias "qhov tam sim no superbubble muaj qhov sib xyaw ua ke txaus ntshai ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis ntau dua (nrog rau daim ntawv cog lus, vaj tsev, thiab cov khoom lag luam tag nrho cov nqi kim heev thiab tam sim no poob sai sai), cov khoom lag luam poob siab, thiab Fed hawkishness."

Kev tawg ntawm superbubbles muaj ntau theem, raws li Grantham. 

Ua ntej cov ntaub ntawv npuas thiab tom qab ntawd "kev poob qis" hauv kev ntsuas - xws li qhov pom hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 - tshwm sim thaum cov tub ua lag luam los paub txog "kev ua tiav" yuav tsis kav ntev, nws hais. "Tom qab ntawd muaj qhov peb nyuam qhuav pom - kev ua lag luam dais," ua ntej thaum kawg "cov peev txheej tsis zoo" thiab kev lag luam poob qis.

Nws tau hais tias "Kev sib tw dais-kev lag luam hauv superbubbles yooj yim dua thiab sai dua li lwm qhov kev sib tw," nws hais. "Cov neeg lag luam xav tias, cov khoom lag luam no muag rau $ 100 6 lub hlis dhau los, yog li tam sim no ntawm $ 50, lossis $ 60, lossis $ 70, nws yuav tsum pheej yig."

Ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Yim Hli 16, S&P 500 tau rov qab 58% ntawm nws qhov kev poob txij li lub Rau Hli qis, raws li Grantham. Qhov ntawd yog "eerily zoo ib yam li lwm cov keeb kwm superbubbles." 

Piv txwv li, "los ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj qis hauv 1929 txog rau lub Plaub Hlis 1930 siab, kev ua lag luam tau nce 46% - 55% rov qab los ntawm qhov poob ntawm qhov siab," nws hais.

Nws kuj tseem hais txog qhov "ceev thiab nplai" ntawm lwm qhov kev lag luam dais. 

"Hauv xyoo 1973, lub caij ntuj sov rally tom qab thawj zaug poob rov qab 59% ntawm S&P 500 tag nrho cov poob los ntawm qhov siab," nws sau. Tsis ntev los no, xyoo 2000, Grantham tau sau tias "Nasdaq (uas yog qhov kev tshwm sim tseem ceeb ntawm tech npuas) tau rov qab 60% ntawm nws qhov kev poob pib hauv 2 lub hlis xwb."

Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau xaus rau hnub Wednesday qis dua, nrog rau tag nrho peb qhov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb tau teem rau plaub hnub ncaj ntawm kev poob qis rau hnub kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.88%
poob 0.9%, thaum S&P 500
SPX,
-0.78%
poob 0.8% thiab thev naus laus zis-hnyav Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.56%
swb 0.6%. 

Nyeem: Lub khw muag khoom lub caij ntuj sov rally khiav tawm ntawm chav nyob rau lub Yim Hli. Nov yog dab tsi keeb kwm hais txog lub Cuaj Hli.

Grantham hais tias "Cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam inevitably lags cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam," said Grantham. "Yuav ua rau qhov teeb meem tsis zoo, thaum tig ntawm cov xwm txheej zoo li xyoo 2000 thiab 2007, cov ntaub ntawv zoo li cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab thiab kev ua haujlwm tuaj yeem hloov kho ntau zuj zus mus."

Nws tau hais tias "Nws yog lub sijhawm ua lag luam no uas qhov kev sib tw dais-kev lag luam feem ntau tshwm sim," nws hais. Thiab tam sim no qhov superbubble zoo li tam sim no tau "tso tseg ntawm txoj cai thib peb thiab zaum kawg," raws li Grantham. 

"Npaj rau qhov kawg epic," nws hais. "Yog tias keeb kwm rov ua dua, qhov kev ua si yuav rov ua qhov xwm txheej. Peb yuav tsum cia siab rau lub sijhawm no rau tus menyuam yaus. "