Jeremy Grantham thiab Michael Burry ceeb toom ntawm lwm qhov kev lag luam poob qis. Zam qhov kev ua yuam kev no pib thaum lub lag luam Tshuag nws thiaj li kho

Kev yuav qis thiab muag siab yog ib qho yooj yim nqis peev lub tswv yim ua raws - thaum tus nqi nce.

Tab sis nrog qee tus neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam tseem ceeb kwv yees tej yam yuav nqa ib tug tumble, kev txhawj xeeb uas koj cov txiaj ntsig yuav evaporate ua ntej koj sawv ntxov sawv ntxov tuaj yeem dhau mus.

Thaum qhov kev ntshai ntawd tuav, muag tawm ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ua ntej nws yuav tsis muaj nuj nqis tuaj yeem xav zoo li qhov kev ua si ntse xwb.

Nws tsis yog.

Qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb ntawm cov tub ua lag luam tshiab thiab cov caij nyoog yog qhov txaus siab los tawm ntawm kev ua lag luam tsis muaj zog. Kev poob qis tam sim ntawd tuaj yeem ua rau xeev siab ib ntus, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis muaj dab tsi piv rau lub neej ntawm kev khuv xim los ntawm kev tso nyiaj ntawm cov khoom lag luam lossis nyiaj txiag thaum koj tsis xav tau.

Ua qhov kev xaiv zoo txog cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj tsis yog qhov teeb meem ntawm kev txiav txim siab seb cov khoom lag luam yuav khaws thiab muag qhov twg. Qhov ntawd yog theem kawg ntawm tus txheej txheem.

Qhov kev txiav txim siab loj tshaj plaws tau ua thaum koj tab tom sib sau koj lub tswv yim peev. Yog tias koj tuaj yeem ua tib zoo txiav txim siab, thiab ua raws li lawv, nws yuav ua rau koj qhov kev sib tham sab hauv-lossis-muag kev sib cav tsis tshua muaj kev ntxhov siab.

Risk tsis yog koj tus yeeb ncuab

Koj tsis tas yuav yog Warren Buffet lossis Jim Cramer kom paub tias kev lag luam tsis nce mus ib txhis. Qee lub sij hawm, qhov tseem ceeb yuav poob.

Tom Trainor, tus thawj coj ntawm Hanover Private Client Corporation, nyob rau hauv Toronto, Canada, hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum cia siab tias lub khw yuav txo qis tus nqi tsis tu ncua.

Nws hais tias kev thim rov qab, qhov twg kev lag luam poob qis dua 10%, feem ntau tshwm sim ib xyoos ib zaug. Kev kho, uas pom qhov poob ntawm 10-rau-20%, tshwm sim kwv yees li txhua ob-rau-peb xyoos. Kev lag luam dais, poob ntawm 20% lossis ntau dua, tshwm sim txhua tsib xyoos lossis ntau dua.

Tus kws qhia hais tias "Cov khoom no xav tau tag nrho,"

Tab sis cov tub ua lag luam tshiab tsis paub xav tias yuav muaj cov xwm txheej no; thiab txawm tias ntau tus neeg uas tau ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm cov khoom lag luam muaj kev nco luv luv thiab ntshai thaum cov nqi Tshuag poob.

Qhov ntawd tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev ntshai muag, uas rhuav tshem tus nqi ntawm cov peev txheej. Kev kawm rau ob qho tib si cia siab thiab lees txais qee qhov kev lag luam volatility yog thawj kauj ruam hauv kev ntxias kom muag qis.

Zaj dab neeg tseem ntxiv

Qhov tseeb, qhov volatility ci rau hauv Tshuag lag luam yog qhov feem ntau ntawm nws cov nqi los ntawm. Qhov kev pheej hmoo siab dua no yog vim li cas cov nyiaj rov qab ntawm cov khoom lag luam siab dua cov uas cuam tshuam nrog cov ntawv cog lus thiab lwm cov khoom lag luam nyiaj tau los.

"Yog tias koj paub tseeb tias koj yuav tau txais 7% lossis 8% txhua xyoo [los ntawm cov khoom lag luam], ces tsis muaj leej twg yuav nqis peev rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus. Txhua tus neeg yuav nqis peev hauv cov peev txheej, "Trainor hais. "Nws yog tus nqi pheej hmoo uas koj tab tom sim ntes."

Yog tias koj thiab koj tus kws npaj nyiaj txiag tau txiav txim siab koj cov ntaub ntawv xav tau los tsim kom muaj xya-rau-10% txhua xyoo rau koj los tswj koj txoj kev ua neej, koj yuav tsis tau txais qhov ntawd los ntawm daim ntawv cog lus lossis lwm yam khoom muaj nqis uas tsis ua kom nce nyiaj nce ntxiv.

Cov theem ntawm kev xa rov qab xav kom koj tswj hwm txoj haujlwm muaj txiaj ntsig zoo thiab tiv thaiv qhov kev ntxias kom muag thaum lub ntsej muag ntxhib.

Thaum twg koj yuav tsum tau nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam?

Tshawb nrhiav seb qhov kev pheej hmoo ntau npaum li cas koj nyiam nrog yog qhov kev suav ua nyuaj. Thiab nws tsis yog kev txiav txim siab ntawm kev puas siab puas ntsws.

Tus kws qhia hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum muaj ob lub hom phiaj nyiaj txiag thiab paub txog lawv lub sijhawm rau kev xav tau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lawv cov peev txheej.

Nws hais tias "Yog tias nws muaj ntau tshaj tsib, lossis cia siab tias ntau dua 10 xyoo, tsuas yog nqis peev hauv cov peev txheej," nws hais. "Yog tias koj xav tau cov nyiaj rov qab hauv ob-rau-peb xyoos, tej zaum koj tsuas yog xav nqis peev rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus luv luv."

Thaum cov nyiaj tau los cov hom phiaj tau ua tiav, nws yog lub sijhawm los ua qhov cuam tshuam rau koj qhov kev pheej hmoo.

Tej zaum koj tus kws pab tswv yim hais tias koj lub hom phiaj xav tau cov ntaub ntawv uas hnyav ntawm cov khoom lag luam, tab sis koj yog hom neeg uas yuav tsis haus mis nyuj hnub ua ntej nws tas sij hawm. Yog tias koj muaj kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai, tsis txhob yuav cov khoom lag luam ib leeg vim tias muaj ntau dhau lawm koj yuav pib muag lawv sai li sai tau thaum cov nqi pib poob.

Hauv qhov xwm txheej no, koj thiab koj tus kws pab tswv yim xav tsim cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg uas leans ntau dua ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tas li; ib qho uas tsuas yog muaj 20% kev sib npaug.

Yog tias nws haum koj cov nyiaj tau los tom qab so haujlwm xav tau, koj qhov kev cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam Tshuag yuav tsum tswj tau txaus tias cov lus nug ntawm kev tuav lossis muag tsis tas yuav nug.

Diversify thiab ua pa yooj yim dua

Cov khoom lag luam zoo sib npaug yog qhov txhim khu kev qha tiv thaiv kev lag luam volatility, cov kws tshaj lij hais.

Tus kws qhia hais tias qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom sib txawv tuaj yeem suav nrog 15-rau-20 cov khoom sib txawv ntawm tus kheej uas sawv cev rau kev sib xyaw ntawm lub teb chaws thiab kev lag luam. Tab sis, nws ntxiv, kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam loj yog ib txoj hauv kev niaj hnub thiab txhim khu kev lag luam ntau dua.

Kev nqis peev hauv txoj hauv kev uas taug qab kev ua haujlwm ntev ntawm TSX lossis Nasdaq indices yog qhov muaj kev nyab xeeb. Sim xaiv cov yeej thiab cov neeg poob nrog cov khoom lag luam tus kheej, tsis yog ntau.

Yog li yog dhia hauv thiab dhia tawm ntawm tus kheej cov khoom lag luam tsuas yog lub sijhawm kom tig tau cov txiaj ntsig thiab tsis txhob poob.

"Kev tshawb fawb tau qhia tsis tu ncua tias tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem ua lub sijhawm ua lag luam nrog txhua qib ntawm qhov tseeb," nws hais. "Koj tsis tau them nyiaj rau ib qho kev pheej hmoo."

Hloov chaw, cov kws tshaj lij hais tias koj cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia yuav tsum tau ua kom zoo li ntawd ib dip yuav tsis xav kom koj muag tawm koj cov peev txheej. Thiab nws yuav tsum muaj ntau yam txaus tias cov khoom xa rov qab los ntawm nws cov khoom tsis muaj vaj huam sib luag (cov ntawv cog lus lossis lwm cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov) tuaj yeem them rov qab rau lub sijhawm ntev ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis.

"Peb tsis xav yuam kom muag cov khoom lag luam hauv koj cov ntaub ntawv thaum lub sijhawm ntawd," Tus kws qhia hais tias. "Ua kom paub tseeb tias koj cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg tau tsim nyog kom koj muaj nyiaj ntsuab thaum koj xav tau."

- Nrog cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Samantha Emann

Kab lus no muab cov ntaub ntawv nkaus xwb thiab yuav tsum tsis txhob muab txhais ua cov lus qhia. Nws tau muab yam tsis muaj kev lees paub ntawm txhua yam.