Cov kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau poob kwv yees li ntawm 12% mus rau 25% xyoo no, qhov mob hnyav tom qab ob xyoos ntawm kev nce. Lub sijhawm yuav khoom? Tsis nrawm, raws li kev txheeb xyuas kev lag luam tam sim no.
Andrew Addison, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam qub qub, tus tswv ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Tshawb Fawb, thiab qee zaum pab txhawb rau Barron tus, pom ntau downside ua ntej rau lub
Tsis zoo li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, uas sim txiav txim siab txog cov khoom muaj nqis los ntawm kev kawm txog nyiaj txiag lossis nyiaj txiag, cov kws tshaj lij tshuaj xyuas cov qauv kab ntawv, thiab trading ntim thiab lwm yam kev txheeb cais los txheeb xyuas cov ntsiab lus tig. "Thaum kev lag luam tab tom yuav ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, koj pom tias qhov kev nqis tes ua hauv qhov ntsuas yog camouflaging lub zog lossis tsis muaj zog hauv qab qhov chaw," nws hais.
Tam sim no, tsis muaj qhov camouflage: Tej yam tau dab tuag, saum toj thiab hauv qab.
Tsis muaj pov thawj tias ntau cov khoom lag luam thim rov qab lawv qhov kev poob qis thaum qhov kev ntsuas dav dav poob, nws hais. Tsis tau muaj "kev cog lus muaj txiaj ntsig" hauv cov lej ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsoo qhov qis qis tshiab, lossis qhov tseem ceeb nce hauv feem pua ntawm cov khoom lag luam ua lag luam siab dua lawv 50-hnub lossis 200-hnub txav nruab nrab. Nws hais tias "Txog thaum lub lag luam kev lag luam txhim kho, txhua qhov kev sib tw yuav zoo li luv luv, zoo li cua daj cua dub cua daj cua dub," nws hais.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tseem kawm txog kev txhawb nqa thiab kev tawm tsam, cov ntsiab lus ntawm qhov kev thov peev lossis cov khoom siv tau tso tseg kev muag lossis kev sib tw yav dhau los. Addison pom kev txhawb nqa rau Dow ncig 29,000 txog 30,000; Blue-chip nruab nrab yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 31,950 rau hnub Friday.
Tam sim no hais tias S&P 500 tau tawg hauv qab 4050, qhov kev pheej hmoo poob qis yog 3800, thiab muaj peev xwm 3600, raws li nws qhov kev nyeem ntawv ntawm daim ntawv qhia. Kev poob rau 3800 yuav cuam tshuam qhov poob ntawm 4.8%, raws li hnub Friday tus nqi ntawm 3990.
Addison tau siv sijhawm ntau los kawm txog qhov
Nasdaq 100,
kev lag luam-capitalization-hnyav Performance index ntawm 100 cov tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws uas tsis yog nyiaj txiag tau teev tseg hauv Nasdaq, thiab tus neeg sawv cev rau cov khoom lag luam loj hlob uas tsav lub lag luam bull kom kiv taub hau siab. Ntawm 11,945 tsis ntev los no, nws tau los ze rau kev txhawb nqa, nws hais. "Peb tuaj yeem pom Nasdaq 100 pib stabilize nyob ib ncig ntawm 11,000, "nws hais ntxiv, sau tseg tias qhov ntsuas tau siv li ntawm rau lub hlis, txij lub Rau Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis kawg, hauv kev lag luam ntau ntawm 10,500 txog 11,000.
Lub Nasdaq 100's 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab, uas txhais cov kev lag luam mus sij hawm ntev, zaum qis dua 10,700. Lub sijhawm kawg ntawm qhov ntsuas tau mus txog qib kev txhawb nqa yog nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020, Addison hais tias, thaum nws poob qis li 6770, nyob ze rau lub sijhawm ntawd-200 lub limtiam txav nruab nrab ntawm 6600. Qhov 200-lub limtiam txav nruab nrab tau muab kev txhawb nqa txij li cov khoom nqa los ntawm lawv. 2009 poob qis tom qab muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag. Nws hais tias "Qhov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb tsis tau ua txhaum lawv rau 13 xyoo dhau los," nws hais.
Yog tias Nasdaq 100 tau tawg qis dua nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab ntawm txoj kev txiav txim siab, qhov ntawd tuaj yeem muaj "kev cuam tshuam hauv ntiaj teb" rau cov khoom lag luam, Addison hais.
Puas yog peb tsis muaj txaus ntawm cov ntawd lawm?
Sau rau Lauren R. Rublin ntawm [email tiv thaiv]