(Bloomberg) - Nws nyuaj rau saib, tsis tuaj yeem kwv yees thiab npau suav phem rau kev lag luam. Tab sis puas yog S&P 500's swb yog qhov tsis tsim nyog txaus ntshai rau hnub no? Los ntawm qee qhov kev ntsuas tsis muaj, thiab qhov ntawd yuav ua rau tsis zoo rau cov peev txheej hauv lub sijhawm ze.
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Txawm hais tias Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam poob qis 20% los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv thawj zaug txij li lub Peb Hlis 2020, kev lag luam ntim tau zoo nkauj nruab nrab thiab Cboe Volatility Index yog qis dua lub hlis no siab. Lub caij no, Cboe SKEW Index - txhais tau hais tias tsis muaj kev hloov pauv rau kev poob qis S&P 500 muab cov ntawv cog lus txheeb ze rau kev hu - yog ze rau ob xyoos qis.
Cov txheeb ze tsis muaj kev ntxhov siab tsis tas yuav yog qhov zoo, los ntawm qhov sib txawv lo ntsiab muag. Tias S&P 500 txoj hauv kev tau nyob twj ywm tsis muaj kev hu nkauj ntawm kev ceeb ntshai qhia tias hauv qab tseem tsis tau pom, raws li AlphaTrAI's Max Gokhman. Txheej ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve uas yog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev saib yav dhau los qhov kev kub ntxhov hauv kev nrhiav cov nyiaj txiag nruj dua, thiab qhov kev xav tsis zoo.
Gokhman, tus thawj coj ntawm tuam txhab peev nyiaj tau hais tias "Cov neeg ua lag luam tuav lawv cov pa tuaj yeem ua rau poob vim tias muaj ntau ntxiv rau qhov kev poob qis no ua ntej lub xyoo cov menyuam coaster pib sib tsoo rov qab," Gokhman, tus thawj coj ntawm tuam txhab peev. "Nrog Fed ua tus tsav tsheb, peb yuav tsum tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav rov qab mus rau qhov chaw nres tsheb. Tsuas yog ib feem peb ntawm kev sib tw nruj dhau los tsis muaj kev lag luam poob qis thiab lawv txhua tus pib thaum kev nce nqi qis dua 3.3%. "
Tsis Rushing rau Exits
Kev poob hauv cov khoom lag luam tsis tau nrog kev nce hauv kev lag luam. Qhov ntim ntawm Asmeskas kev sib pauv tsis tau nce rau lub lim tiam no vim S&P 500 poob ntxiv 4.8%. Nws tseem nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog cov theem pom thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo tumultuous.
“Cov ntawv ntim tsis zoo siab lossis tsis yooj yim. Kuv xav pom qhov nce siab kom muaj kev ntseeg siab ntau dua hauv qab, "said Chris Murphy, tus thawj coj ntawm cov tswv yim derivatives ntawm Susquehanna International Group. "Peb feem ntau pom ntau qhov ntim ntawm qhov qis tiag tiag uas yog ib qho kev qhia ntawm capitulation."
'Fear Gauge' Tseem To Ntshai
“Peb muaj kev ntshai, peb muaj kev ntseeg, peb muaj kev npau taws, tab sis peb tsis muaj kev cia siab. Peb tseem tsis tau muaj cov neeg pov tseg cov khoom lag luam, thiab kuv xav tias qhov ntawd yuav los, "SentimenTrader tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Jay Kaeppel tau hais hauv Bloomberg TV kev xam phaj hnub Friday. "Ua rau kuv thaum nws hits 45, vim yog koj saib keeb kwm, tag nrho cov kev poob loj, nws nce mus rau 40 lossis 45, yog li 30 yuav tsis ua nws."
Lub VIX tam sim no nyob ib ncig ntawm 32.
Julian Emanuel, tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees thiab ntau tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Evercore ISI, tab tom saib peb yam rau cov cim qhia ntawm kev poob siab: VIX saum toj no 40, qhov sib piv muab / hu mus txog 1.35, thiab sib koom ntim siab tshaj 20 billion.
"Qhov kawg ntawm kev kho yog feem ntau nrog kev ntshai thiab kev poob siab - kev hloov pauv loj thiab kev lag luam ntim," nws tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv tsis ntev los no.
Craig W. Johnson, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm Piper Sandler, tseem tab tom nrhiav VIX kom ntaus 40, thiab siv tus tswv cuab kev qhia nws tau hu ua "40-lub lim tiam txheej txheem," uas ntsuas pes tsawg cov khoom lag luam siab dua lossis qis dua lawv 40 - lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab. Qhov ntsuas ntawd tau nqis mus rau 13% thiab nws tab tom tos "sub-10% kev nyeem ntawv tshem tawm."
"Peb tau pom cov ntawv nyeem qis dua 10% muaj keeb kwm qhia tias kev lag luam dav nyob ze ze ntawm qhov kis mob," nws sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv.
Ib leeg-Tsev Teeb Tseg
Cboe SKEW Index - qhia qhov tsis txaus ntseeg rau kev poob qis S&P 500 muab cov ntawv cog lus txheeb ze rau kev hu - yog ze rau qhov qis tshaj txij li lub Plaub Hlis 2020. Lub sijhawm no, qhov sib piv muab-rau-hu uas taug qab qhov ntim ntawm cov kev xaiv khi rau ib lub tuam txhab tau dhia mus rau 1.27, tseem Hauv qab qhov pib Evercore's Emanuel tab tom saib.
Amy Wu Silverman, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees ntawm RBC Capital Markets tau hais tias "Txawm tias qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tsis tau tawg, koj tab tom pom nws hauv ib qho khoom lag luam," said Amy Wu Silverman. "Yog tias ib qho khoom lag luam tawg, thaum kawg qhov no ua rau nce mus rau qib ntsuas." Wu tau taw qhia rau cov kev cuam tshuam hauv Walmart Inc. thiab Target Corp. ua piv txwv - ob qho tib si nyuam qhuav pib lub lim tiam no tau tshaj tawm lawv cov nyiaj tau los loj tshaj plaws tom qab ntau xyoo lawm.
Khaws qhov muag kaw ntawm qhov ntsuas
Mike Mullaney, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm Boston Partners, hais tias muaj peev xwm ua kom muaj kev sib cog lus ntxiv. "Tej zaum muaj kev poob qis dua rau kev ua lag luam tam sim no ntau dua li muaj kev nce siab," nws hais hauv xov tooj.
Nws tab tom nrhiav rau kev kho cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kom nqis los thiab cov nqi qis dua.
"Qhov $ 64,000 lo lus nug yog seb peb puas tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov chaw mos lossis yuav raug thawb mus rau kev lag luam," nws hais. "Peb nyob hauv qhov kev lag luam poob nyiaj ntau dua li peb nyob hauv qhov chaw muag khoom muag yog tias Fed xav tau mus rau lawv lub hom phiaj nyiaj txiag." Kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem thawb S&P 500 cov nyiaj tau los ntau mus rau ib puag ncig 13, thiab qhov ntawd tuaj yeem ua teeb meem rau thaj chaw uas "zoo nkauj txhua yam tau txo qis hauv khw."
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