Tojsiab
Tau ntau lub hlis, qhov dav (thiab ntxhov siab) tau taug qab cov txiaj ntsig tau hloov pauv hauv qhov qhia tau hais tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis nyob rau hnub tsis ntev los no, cov kws tshawb fawb, suav nrog ib tus uas tau pib ua tus qauv ntsuas, tau qhia tias tej zaum qhov kev hloov pauv tam sim no tuaj yeem yog lub taub hau. fake, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog txij thaum kev ua lag luam thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv tseem muaj zog txaus los txhawb kev lag luam.
Lub sijhawm no, Fed yog "daim npav tiag tiag" uas tuaj yeem pab tiv thaiv kev lag luam poob qis-lossis … [+]
txais
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Yield nkhaus inversions tau ua ntej txhua qhov kev lag luam yim yav dhau los thiab tshwm sim thaum lub sij hawm ntev Treasury yields poob qis dua-lub sij hawm rov qab, qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam muaj kev poob qis dua rau yav tom ntej tshaj li lub sij hawm ze thiab yog li qhia tias kev lag luam tau mus rau kev poob qis.
Qhov kev hloov pauv tam sim no tau pib thaum Lub Rau Hli thiab tsis ntev los no tau nce mus rau qhov tsis zoo tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1980s thaum muaj kev nce nqi ntev thiab loj hlob ntshai tshaj li kev lag luam - qhia tias kev lag luam poob qis yog "yuav luag qhov tseeb," LPL Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam nyiaj txiag Lawrence Gillum tau hais hauv email cov lus rau hnub Wednesday.
Txawm li cas los xij, Gillum hais tias kev lag luam poob qis "tsis muaj tseeb," qhia qhov txawv ntawm ib lub xyoo no yog "kwv yees ib npib tos" thiab ceeb toom ob yam tseem ceeb "ua rau nyuaj" cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus tam sim no: ib qho ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve feem ntau. Txhoj puab heev nruj kev sib tw hauv keeb kwm tsav tsheb nce tus nqi luv luv thiab kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi qis qis qis qis dua cov txiaj ntsig ntev.
Txawm hais tias nws tau sau tseg tias qhov kev hloov pauv hloov pauv tau los txog tam sim no yog "cov teeb meem kev lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig zoo," Gillum hais tias muaj zog. cov neeg siv khoom thiab ib tug resilient kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem ua rau lub sijhawm no sib txawv, thiab nws tau taw qhia tias muaj "teeb meem tsis tseeb" yav dhau los - ib qho inversion uas ua ntej qhov credit crunch thiab kev lag luam qeeb hauv xyoo 1967, tab sis tsis yog kev lag luam.
Gillum tsis yog ib leeg hauv nws qhov kev tsis ntseeg: Lub lim tiam dhau los no, Duke University tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Campbell Harvey, uas yog tus thawj coj pioneering yield nkhaus kev tshawb fawb qhia nyob rau hauv 1986, tau piav qhia yog vim li cas nws ntseeg hais tias tam sim no inversion yog flashing ib tug cuav teeb liab thawj zaug nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm 60 xyoo. xyoo, suav nrog lub zog hauv kev lag luam ua haujlwm uas tuaj yeem pab cov neeg ua haujlwm raug tshem tawm nrhiav haujlwm tshiab sai sai.
"Tus qauv no yooj yim heev, thiab muaj lwm yam tshwm sim hauv kev lag luam," Harvey hais tias ntawm CNBC hnub Monday, hu rau Fed "daim npav tiag tiag," txij li nws tau tsav cov paj laum luv luv los pab kev lag luam qeeb tab sis tuaj yeem yooj yim txoj cai sai txaus kom tsis txhob muaj kev poob nyiaj txiag.
Kev Nkag Siab Hais
"Cov qauv kev lag luam pab ua kom yooj yim rau lub ntiaj teb nyuaj, tab sis nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias lub teeb liab tsis yog ib txwm muaj tseeb thiab qee zaum qhov tseeb, txawv," Gillum hais. "Raws li qhov [yim nkhaus] teeb liab, qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev lag luam poob qis dua li ua ntej muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb, dot-com npuas thiab Covid qeeb. Peb xav tias tej zaum yuav overstated. "
Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb
Ntau lub tuam txhab Wall Street, suav nrog Bank of America thiab Deutsche Bank, ntseeg tias Tebchaws Meskas yuav ntsib qhov kev lag luam me me xyoo no, thiab hnub Tuesday, World Bank. ceeb toom lub ntiaj teb no kev lag luam yog "perilously ze" rau ib tug downturn. Txawm li cas los xij, qee cov kws tshaj lij tau ua qhov zoo dua nyob rau hnub tsis ntev los no. Hnub Tuesday, JPMorgan tus thawj coj Jamie Dimon hais rau Fox Kev Lag Luam nws tseem ceev faj txog kev xav tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem ntsib "kev lag luam me me," tab sis nws kuj tau hais tias Asmeskas tuaj yeem hnav ib qho, nrog ob lub tuam txhab thiab cov neeg siv khoom "tseem muaj zog. . . thiab nyob hauv qhov zoo. " Tus billionaire kuj tau taug kev rov qab cov lus tau ua lub caij ntuj sov dhau los Hais txog qhov yuav tshwm sim "kev lag luam nag xob nag cua," hais tias "nws tsis tuaj yeem tsis muaj dab tsi," thiab tias " nag xob nag cua thaum ntxov twb tau tsoo," nrog rau cov khw lag luam poob 20% xyoo tas los thiab kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv ntev dua li qhov xav tau.
Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb
Tshaj li 60 xyoo dhau los, qhov kev ncua sij hawm nruab nrab ntawm cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus thawj qhov kev hloov pauv thiab qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam tau nce txij li 6 txog 24 lub hlis.
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb yog 'Perilously Kaw' Rau Kev Lag Luam Hauv 2023, World Bank ceeb toom (Forbes)
Fed Cia siab tias tsis muaj kev txiav nyiaj paj laum hauv 2023 (Forbes)
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2023/01/11/is-the-yield-curve-flashing-a-false-recession-warning-more-economists-are-starting-to- xav-so/