Puas yog Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Ua Lag Luam qeeb qeeb? Yuav Ua Li Cas Hauv 2023

Tus yuam sij takeaways

• Nrog rau kev nce nqi pheej yig los ntawm Fed, muaj kev ntshai thoob plaws tias kev lag luam yuav nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis. Tus nqi hikes thiab tag nrho kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb tau ua rau kev thov qiv nyiaj qis.
• Kev muag khoom hauv tsev uas twb muaj lawm poob rau 9 lub hlis ncaj (los ntawm 5.9% thaum Lub Kaum Hli) raws li cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau tawm tsam nrog kev them taus.
• Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Redfin kwv yees tias tus nqi nruab nrab hauv tsev yuav poob 4% thaum ntxov 2023 txog $ 368,000. Qhov no tsis yog txawm tias ze rau kev sib tsoo ntawm vaj tse, tab sis nws yog ib qho kev qhia tias tus nqi vaj tsev loj hlob thaum kawg yuav ruaj khov.

Nrog rau cov nqi tsev nce siab thiab cov paj laum siab uas peb tau pom tsis ntev los no, ntau tus kws tshaj lij xav tias kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav qeeb vim tias cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau tawm tsam kom them tau lub tsev inflated, cia nyob ib leeg cov paj laum cuam tshuam.

Nws zoo nkaus li nws yuav ua rau qeeb qeeb. Raws li Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, cov nqi tsev poob 2.2% thaum Lub Rau Hli thiab Cuaj Hli 2022.

Ntau tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau tos kom cov nqi vaj tsev poob qis kom lawv tuaj yeem nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam thaum kawg. Peb yuav saib ntau yam kev txheeb cais kom pom tias kev lag luam vaj tsev tau qeeb thiab mus txog qib twg.

Kev muag tsev uas twb muaj lawm tau poob lawm

Raws li National Association of Realtors (NAR), tseem tos kev muag khoom hauv tsev poob los ntawm 4.6% rau Lub Kaum Hli. Qhov no tshwm sim vim tej zaum cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tsis tuaj yeem tsim nyog tau txais qiv nyiaj vim yog cov paj laum ntau dua. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv, cov cheeb tsam kim dua hauv lub tebchaws xav tias qhov no yog qhov ntau tshaj plaws.

NAR tseem tshaj tawm tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev tam sim no poob 5.9% thaum lub Cuaj Hli thiab Lub Kaum Hli. Qhov no yog 9 lub hlis sib law liag uas pom kev muag khoom hauv tsev tam sim no poob. Nyob rau hauv ib xyoos ib zaug, kev muag khoom poob 28.4%, qhia tias tus nqi siab dua tau ntshai - yuav yog cov neeg yuav khoom deb ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev.

Daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj tau qeeb

Raws li Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag, cov ntawv thov qiv nyiaj tsis ntev los no tau nqis los ntawm 1.9% piv rau lub lim tiam dhau los. Kev thov tsev qiv nyiaj yog qhov qhia txog kev lag luam vaj tsev vim nws qhia tias muaj pes tsawg tus neeg tab tom nrhiav kom nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam. Cov nqi qiv nyiaj nce siab nrog rau cov nqi tsev siab dua yog qhov kev thov qiv nyiaj qis dua. Cov neeg uas xav nqis peev hauv vaj tse yog tos kom cov nqi poob ntxiv los yog lawv tau pom lwm txoj kev nqis peev.

Cov nqi vaj tse tseem tsis tau poob

Ntau tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau cia siab tias yuav muaj qee yam kev kho vaj tsev kho mob thiab cov nqi yuav poob qis. Feem ntau hais lus, cov nqi vaj tsev yuav zoo li poob thaum cov paj laum nce. Tsis tas li, tsawg kawg tsis tau.

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm NAR, thaum lub tsev muag khoom tam sim no poob qis, qhov nruab nrab tus nqi muag hauv tsev tau nce 6.6% xyoo dhau los rau $ 379,100. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no tau nqis los ntawm tus nqi siab tshaj ntawm $ 413,800 thaum Lub Rau Hli 2022. Tus nqi vaj tsev nyob hauv ib xyoos nce mus txog 10.1% thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2022, uas yog tus lej qis tshaj txij li thaum ntxov 2021.

Cov nuj nqis ntawm vaj tse no tsis meej pem, raws li cov ntsuas lag luam tseem qhia cov nqi siab, tab sis cov ntaub ntawv tam sim no qhia tias qhov sib txawv no rov qab qee yam. Kev muag khoom tau qeeb, tab sis cov nqi muaj ntau qhov poob qis ua ntej lawv pheej yig dua ib zaug.

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Cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tau poob dua

Kev xa khoom ntawm cov tsev tsis muaj muag tau nqis mus rau 1.22 lab rau lub Kaum Hlis 2022, poob 0.8% ntawm lub hli dhau los. Ib qho kev piav qhia rau qhov no yog tias ntau tus tswv tsev uas xav txog kev txav mus los tau raug kaw hauv cov txiaj ntsig zoo nyob rau ob peb xyoos dhau los uas lawv tsis xav poob rau. Cov tswv tsev xaiv nyob hauv lawv lub tsev uas twb muaj lawm es tsis hloov mus rau qhov loj dua lossis me dua vim tias cov paj laum yuav siab dua.

Cov khoom lag luam qis vaj tse ua ke nrog cov kev ua lag luam muaj zog tej zaum yuav tiv thaiv kev lag luam vaj tse los ntawm kev poob.

Cov nqi vaj tsev yuav tsum poob rau xyoo 2023

Ntau tus kws tshaj lij thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau tuaj rau pem hauv ntej nrog kev kwv yees ntawm cov nqi vaj tsev pib poob rau xyoo 2023 vim tias muaj kev ntshai ntawm kev poob qis. Economists xav tias cov nqi tsev yuav tsum poob ntau dua vim tias cov nqi tsev yuav nce ntxiv.

CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index (uas ntsuas qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi rau tsev neeg ib leeg) tau nce 10.6% xyoo dhau los rau lub Cuaj Hli, nqis los ntawm 13% thaum Lub Yim Hli. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias lub Cuaj Hli nce txhua xyoo yog qhov qis tshaj txij li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020, thiab nws zoo nkaus li tias cov nqi vaj tsev tau nce txog rau lub hlis dhau los. Nrog rau lub Cuaj Hlis yog 6th lub hlis sib law liag ntawm kev nce nqi vaj tsev, nws zoo nkaus li tias cov nqi tau ruaj khov.

Raws li CoreLogic's Home Price Index forecast, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi txhua xyoo yuav tsum ncav cuag 8% nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau 0% thaum ntxov 2023. Yog tias qhov no tshwm sim, nws txhais tau tias cov nqi vaj tsev thaum kawg yuav tsum tsis txhob loj hlob. Los ntawm qhov ntawd, peb yuav tau saib xyuas seb qhov kev muag khoom vaj tsev hloov pauv li cas los ntsuas qhov loj thiab ceev ntawm kev kho.

Koj tuaj yeem xav li cas hauv 2023?

Morgan Stanley tau kwv yees tias tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm ib lub tsev tuaj yeem poob li 10% txij lub Rau Hli 2022 txog 2024. Thaum lub sij hawm qhov kev hloov kho vaj tsev zaum kawg pom cov nqi tsev poob 27% ntawm xyoo 2006 thiab 2012, qhov xwm txheej no txawv ntau lub sijhawm no, nrog rau kev hloov pauv. kev ua lag luam thiab cov khoom muag tsawg.

Redfin tseem tsis ntev los no tau ua nws kev kwv yees rau 2023. Peb tab tom yuav rhuav tshem cov kev kwv yees ntawm vaj tse tseem ceeb uas tsim nyog los tham txog.

Kev muag khoom hauv tsev yuav poob mus rau theem qis tshaj txij li xyoo 2011

Redfin cia siab tias 16% tsawg dua kev muag tsev nyob rau hauv 2023 piv rau 2022. Qhov kev kwv yees no yog raws li cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev muaj peev xwm ntsib cov teeb meem pheej yig uas tau nthuav tawm los ntawm cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj siab, cov nqi vaj tsev siab thiab muaj peev xwm poob qis. Tib neeg yuav tsis mob siab rau txav mus raws li lawv tau nyob hauv lub hlis muaj kev sib kis thaum tus nqi paj tau qis heev.

Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav poob qis

Redfin ntseeg tias cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav poob li ntawm 6.5% mus rau 5.8%, uas txhais tau hais tias ib tus neeg yuav khoom $ 400,000 yuav txuag tau ib puag ncig $ 150 ntawm kev them nqi tsev txhua hli. Hloov pauv, yog tias cov nqi tsev poob qis thaum cov paj laum poob, tus neeg yuav khoom uas tau tos tuaj yeem yuav lub tsev loj dua thiab tau them qis dua. Qhov no yuav zoo tagnrho rau ib tug neeg vam tias yuav nkag mus rau hauv Kev lag luam vaj tsev hauv 2023, tab sis muaj tsuas yog tsis muaj guarantees.

Cov nqi vaj tse yuav txo qis

Redfin kwv yees tias cov nqi vaj tsev yuav muaj thawj xyoo poob hauv ntau dua kaum xyoo, nrog kev poob qis ntawm 4%. Qhov no yuav ua rau tus nqi nruab nrab hauv tsev nqis mus txog $ 368,000 hauv 2023. Txawm li cas los xij, nws tseem tsim nyog taw qhia tias txawm tias muaj 4% tus nqi vaj tsev poob qis, qhov nruab nrab lub tsev tseem yuav tsis muaj nqis ntau dua li ntawm 2019 ua ntej muaj kev sib kis. Raws li kev kwv yees cov paj laum ntau dua, qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nyiaj qiv tsev yuav yog 63% ntau dua hauv 2023 dua li xyoo 2019. Txawm hais tias cov nyiaj qiv tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce, cov nyiaj ua haujlwm tsuas yog nce 27% ntawm tib lub sijhawm.

Ib yam uas yuav txhawb nqa cov nqi vaj tsev los ntawm kev poob qis dua yog tias cov npe tshiab tuaj yeem nqis mus. Cov yam ntxwv uas cuam tshuam qhov no yuav yog cov neeg xaiv tsis muag yog tias lawv txaus siab rau lawv cov nqi tsev tam sim no, lossis yog lawv xav tias qhov muag tshiab yuav tsis tsim nyog. Yog tias cov xwm txheej no tshwm sim, tag nrho cov khoom muag ntawm cov tsev muag khoom yuav nyob ze rau qhov tsis tshua muaj keeb kwm.

Dab tsi ntxiv rau kev lag luam?

Nws yuav luag xav tias ruam los twv seb yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim hauv 2023, raws li 2022 tau coj peb ntau tus los ntawm kev xav tsis thoob nrog cov theem ntawm kev hloov pauv uas peb tau ntsib. Raws li ib txwm muaj, peb yuav tsum xyuam xim rau tus nqi nce siab los ntawm Fed kom pom tias yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim tom ntej. Lub hom phiaj ntawm cov kev nce qib uas tsis tau muaj dua los no yog los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi los ntawm kev ua lag luam qeeb qeeb kom rov qab tau qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws tsim nyog hais tias kev lag luam muaj zog ua haujlwm tau txhawb nqa kev lag luam thiab tiv thaiv peb los ntawm kev nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis.

Realtor.com hais tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nyiaj qiv tsev tshiab tau nce txog $ 1,000 thaum Lub Kaum Hli piv rau cov cuab yeej zoo sib xws tau yuav hauv 2019. Qhov no txhais tau hais tias cov tswv tsev tshiab tab tom nrhiav lawv tus kheej nrog cov nqi tsev ntau dua uas cuam tshuam rau lawv cov peev nyiaj txhua hli. Cov neeg sim nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam niaj hnub no yuav tsum lees txais kev siv nyiaj ntau dua rau lawv cov nqi vaj tsev nyob piv rau cov uas muaj nyob rau ob peb xyoos dhau los.

Nrog cov nqi tsev nce mus txog 13.3% ib xyoos ib zaug, nws pom tseeb tias feem ntau ntawm cov nyiaj mus rau cov paj laum siab dua uas ua rau cov nqi tsev them nqi kim dua. Cov nqi siab dua tau cuam tshuam rau cov tswv tsev lub hnab nyiaj, thiab nws tsim nyog saib xyuas seb cov tswv tsev txiav txim siab muag lawv lub tsev thiab yog tias cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tsis kam yuav lawv.

Koj yuav tsum tau nqis peev li cas?

Yog tias koj nyob rau sab nraud tos nkag mus rau kev lag luam vaj tsev, muaj feem yuav yog koj tab tom nrhiav txoj hauv kev kom txuag tau thiab nqis peev. Kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb heev tau ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev txiav txim siab seb yuav ua li cas zoo tshaj koj cov nyiaj vim tias koj tsis xav poob ib qho txiaj ntsig los ntawm koj cov nqi qiv nyiaj.

Peb muaj xov xwm zoo rau koj yog tias koj xav khaws koj cov peev txheej ua kua thaum saib koj cov nyiaj loj hlob. Q.ai siv qhov kev kwv yees tawm ntawm kev nqis peev kom koj tsis tas yuav ntxhov siab txog kev saib cov khw. Peb kuj nthuav koj cov peev txheej los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke hauv Cov khoom siv nqis peev yog li ntawd koj tsis tas yuav txhawj txog kev lag luam volatility. Koj tuaj yeem qhib tau Kev Tiv Thaiv Portfolio txhua lub sijhawm los tiv thaiv koj cov txiaj ntsig thiab txo koj cov kev poob, txawm tias koj nqis peev hauv kev lag luam dab tsi.

Ntawm kab hauv qab

Yog tias koj tab tom tos nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, tej zaum yuav muaj qee cov cim zoo uas 2023 tuaj yeem yog xyoo rau koj. Ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tau xav txog yuav pom yog tias kev lag luam nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis thaum ntxov 2023, lossis yog tias Fed tuaj yeem tsim qhov muag muag muag thaum nruj txoj cai nyiaj txiag.

Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tsoomfwv qib siab dua yuav ua rau tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov neeg siv khoom qiv nyiaj, thiab nrog kev sib ntaus sib tua tiv thaiv kev nce nqi nyob deb dhau, tseem muaj ntau qhov tsis paub meej hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev.

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