Raws li kev lag luam Tshuag tau poob qis thiab cov txiaj ntsig rau cov nyiaj tau los tau nce siab nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no, ua tiav hauv qhov kev hloov kho rau Nasdaq Composite Index, cov neeg Asmeskas nruab nrab xav tsis thoob nrog Wall Street.
Ntau ntxiv, Google tshawb nrhiav tau tsom mus rau lub xeev ntawm kev ua lag luam (thiab kev lag luam), thiab rau qhov laj thawj zoo.
Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
tshaj tawm nws qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txhua lub lim tiam txij li Lub Kaum Hli 2020 thiab S&P 500
SPX,
thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
nkag mus rau lawv qhov feem pua qhov poob qis tshaj plaws txhua lub lim tiam txij li Lub Peb Hlis 20, 2020, raws li Dow Jones Market Data qhia.
nyeem: Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thawj lub rooj sib tham ntawm 2022 looms raws li kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev nce nqi sab nraud ntawm txoj cai tswj hwm kev tsim
Kev tshawb nrhiav hauv Google nthuav tawm cov lus nug nrov hauv qab no: Puas yog kev lag luam poob? Thiab vim li cas kev lag luam poob?
Kev lag luam poob yog dab tsi?
Kom paub meej, kev ua lag luam tsis poob siab ntau npaum li lo lus "crashing" yog txawm tias muaj kev lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig. Kev poob qis hauv cov khoom lag luam thiab lwm yam khoom muaj nqis qee zaum tau piav qhia hauv cov ntsiab lus hyperbolic uas muaj cov khoom siv me me txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev txav mus los.
Tsis muaj qhov txhais meej meej rau "kev sib tsoo" tab sis feem ntau nws tau piav qhia txog lub sijhawm, tam sim no, thiab / lossis los ntawm qhov hnyav.
Jay Hatfield, tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm Infrastructure Capital Management, hnub Saturday hais rau MarketWatch tias nws yuav ua rau muaj kev sib tsoo raws li kev poob qis hauv cov khoom muaj nqis tsawg kawg yog 50%, uas tuaj yeem tshwm sim nrawm lossis dhau ib xyoos, tab sis lees paub tias qee zaum cov lus siv. xoob dhau los piav txog kev khiav-ntawm-lub-mill downturns. Nws pom bitcoin's
BTCUSD,
txav raws li kev sib tsoo, piv txwv.
Nws hais tias tag nrho cov kev lag luam kev lag luam kev lag luam poob tam sim no tsis tau raws li nws qhov kev poob qis, txawm li cas los xij, tab sis tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam nyob hauv lub xeev tsis muaj zog.
Hatfield hais tias "Nws tsis poob tab sis nws tsis muaj zog heev," Hatfield hais.
Dab tsi tshwm sim?
Cov txiaj ntsig kev ncaj ncees tau raug suav rov qab los ntawm qhov siab siab vim tias kev lag luam tau mus rau hauv kev tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tshiab hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua tiv thaiv kev sib kis thiab kev nce nqi nce ntxiv. Nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, kev tsis ntseeg txog qee qhov ntawm kev lag luam, thiab cov xwm txheej sab nraud ntawm lub tebchaws, xws li Tuam Tshoj-Asmeskas kev sib raug zoo, Russia-Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb, thiab Middle East kev tsis sib haum xeeb, kuj tseem ua rau muaj kev poob qis, lossis kev xav tsis zoo, rau cov tub ua lag luam. .
Lub confluence ntawm uncertainties muaj kev lag luam nyob rau hauv los yog ze ib tug kho los yog mus rau lub lag luam dais, uas yog cov ntsiab lus uas yog siv nrog precision ntau dua thaum tham txog kev lag luam poob.
Kev poob qis hauv cov khoom lag luam tsis ntev los no, tau kawg, tsis muaj dab tsi tshiab tab sis nws yuav hnov me ntsis tsis xis nyob rau cov tub ua lag luam tshiab, thiab, tej zaum, txawm tias qee cov qub tub rog.
Lub Nasdaq Composite tau nkag mus rau kev kho hnub Wednesday dhau los, ua rau lub caij nplooj zeeg tsawg kawg 10% los ntawm nws qhov tsis ntev los no Kaum Ib Hlis 19 ncov, uas ua tau raws li feem ntau siv Wall Street txhais rau kev kho. Lub Nasdaq Composite kawg tau nkag mus kho thaum Lub Peb Hlis 8, 2021. Hnub Friday, Nasdaq Composite tau sawv ntau dua 14% los ntawm nws lub Kaum Ib Hlis lub ncov thiab tau nce mus rau qhov hu ua lag luam dais, feem ntau piav qhia los ntawm cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam raws li kev poob qis tsawg kawg 20% los ntawm lub ncov tsis ntev los no.
Lub caij no, lub blue-chip Dow industrials sawv 6.89% qis dua nws lub Ib Hlis 4 txhua lub sijhawm siab, lossis 3.11 feem pua cov ntsiab lus los ntawm kev kho, raws li hnub Friday kaw; thaum S&P 500 tau nqis 8.31% los ntawm nws lub Ib Hlis 3 cov ntaub ntawv, muab nws tsuas yog 1.69 feem pua cov ntsiab lus los ntawm kev nkag mus rau kev kho.
Tseem ceeb heev, qhov me me-capitalization Russell 2000 index
ROV,
yog 18.6% los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws tsis ntev los no.
Kev txhawb nqa kev hloov pauv hauv kev xav siab yog qhov peb txoj hauv kev los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve mus rau txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag nruj dua: 1) tapering kev lag luam txhawb nqa khoom vaj khoom tsev, nrog lub qhov muag mus rau qhov yuav xaus cov kev yuav khoom los ntawm Lub Peb Hlis; 2) nce tus nqi paj laum, uas tam sim no sawv ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 0% thiab 0.25%, tsawg kawg peb zaug xyoo no, raws li kev kwv yees kev lag luam; 3) thiab txo qis nws ze li ntawm $ 9 trillion daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas, uas tau loj hlob ntau heev raws li lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau nrhiav los ua tus thim rov qab rau kev lag luam thaum lub sij hawm swoon thaum Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2020 los ntawm kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam.
Ua ke, lub hauv paus-bank cov tswv yim los tawm tsam kev tawg ntawm kev nce nqi siab yuav tshem tawm ntau pua lab nyiaj daus las ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam uas tau poob rau hauv cov nyiaj los ntawm Fed thiab kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag los ntawm tsoomfwv thaum muaj kev sib kis.
Tsis paub meej txog kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam xyoo no thiab lub zeem muag ntawm cov paj laum ntau dua yog yuam cov tub ua lag luam rau reprice thev naus laus zis thiab cov khoom lag luam loj hlob siab, uas nws cov txiaj ntsig tshwj xeeb yog khi rau tam sim no tus nqi ntawm lawv cov nyiaj ntsuab ntws, nrog rau kev txo qis cov peev txheej speculative, suav nrog crypto xws li. raws li bitcoin
BTCUSD,
thiab Ether
ETHUSD, UA
ntawm Ethereum blockchain.
"Fed nyiaj ntau dhau tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam, suav nrog meme cov khoom lag luam, cov khoom lag luam tsis muaj txiaj ntsig, SPACs [cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tshwj xeeb], thiab cryptocurrency," Hatfield hais.
Nws hais tias qhov nce hauv cov txiaj ntsig rau 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv
TUBMUSD 10Y,
uas tau nce ntau dua 20 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hauv 2022, ua cim qhov kev nce qib loj tshaj plaws thaum pib lub xyoo tshiab txij li xyoo 2009, yog ntau qhov tsos mob ntawm qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov nyiaj tau los raug tshem tawm.
"Liquidity yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb, tsis yog tus nqi paj, raws li yuav luag tag nrho cov kev lag luam tawm lag luam muaj kwv yees li tib lub sijhawm / paj paj rhiab heev yog li cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis tsis cuam tshuam los ntawm tus nqi nce, txawm hais tias kev lag luam tawm tswv yim rau qhov tsis sib xws," Hatfield hais.
Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi-tsim Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Neeg yuav zoo li yuav siv nws lub Ib Hlis Ntuj Tim 25-26 lub rooj sib tham tso lub hauv paus rau kev hloov pauv ntxiv hauv txoj cai, uas lub khw tab tom sim ua tus nqi rau kev ntsuas.
Ntau npaum li cas ua lag luam poob qis
Cov neeg lag luam yuav tsum tau zam txim rau qhov xav tias kev lag luam tsuas yog nce mus. Lub khw lag luam tau rov ua dua, txawm tias thaum muaj kev sib kis.
Tseem, kev poob qis ntawm 5% lossis ntau dua yog qhov tshwm sim tsis tu ncua ntawm Wall Street.
Sam Stovall, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm CFRA, tau hais tias nws tau saib qhov kev poob qis tam sim no rau kev lag luam yog "qhov poob qis heev."
“Puas yog kev sib tsoo? Tsis yog. Tab sis nws yog qhov poob qis, ntseeg nws lossis tsis yog, ”nws hais rau MarketWatch dhau lub asthiv.
“Kuv xav hais tias kev ua lag luam tab tom ua qhov nws ua. Lub khw muag nyuj coj tus escalator nce, tab sis cov lag luam dais nqa lub elevator nqis, thiab vim li ntawd tib neeg ntshai heev thaum lub khw poob qis, "nws hais.
Stovall nyiam categorize kev lag luam poob los ntawm tag nrho qhov loj thiab tsis muaj cov txheej txheem tshwj xeeb rau "kev sib tsoo."
"[Kev poob qis] xoom rau 5%, Kuv hu suab nrov tab sis qhov ze peb mus rau 5% lub suab nrov dua," nws hais. Nws hais tias qhov kev poob qis 5-10% tsim nyog raws li kev thim rov qab, qhov poob tsawg kawg yog 10% yog kev kho rau nws thiab qhov poob ntawm 20% lossis ntau dua yog lub lag luam dais.
Salil Mehta, tus kws txheeb cais thiab yav dhau los tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas rau US Treasury Department's TARP program tom qab 2008 nyiaj txiag teebmeem, hais rau MarketWatch uas muab S&P 500 qhov poob qis dua 8%, qhov tshwm sim ntawm 10-14% poob ntawm no yog 31. %, thaum muaj ib-tawm-ntawm-tsib lub caij nyoog ntawm tag nrho poob ntawm 30% lossis ntau dua los ntawm qib tam sim no.
Tus kws txheeb cais tau hais tias muaj "qhov tshwm sim zoo sib xws uas qhov kev poob qis tam sim no nws thiaj li hloov mus ua ib yam dab tsi loj dua ob zaug. Thiab qhov tshwm sim zoo sib xws tam sim no drawdown hloov dua lawm. "
Stovall tau hais tias nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb kom paub tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem hloov pauv sai tom qab kev poob qis. Nws tau hais tias nws tuaj yeem siv S&P 500 qhov nruab nrab ntawm 135 hnub kom tau txais kev kho los ntawm qhov siab tshaj mus rau qhov chaw thiab tsuas yog 116 hnub ntawm qhov nruab nrab kom rov qab los tawg txawm tias raws li cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau Ntiaj Teb Tsov Rog Zaum Ob.
Stovall hais tias qhov kev poob qis no kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua rau hnyav dua los ntawm lub caij nyoog. Tus kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias kev lag luam zoo li ua tsis zoo nyob rau xyoo thib ob ntawm tus thawj tswj hwm txoj haujlwm. Nws tau hais tias "Peb hu nws qhov kev poob qis thib ob," nws hais.
Nws tau hais tias "Volatility tau nce 40% siab dua nyob rau xyoo thib ob, piv nrog rau peb lub xyoos ntawm kev ua thawj tswj hwm," nws hais.
Stovall tau hais tias ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum xav txog yog tias kev lag luam nyiam ua ntau qhov kev zom tom qab ib xyoos thaum rov qab tau 20% lossis ntau dua. S&P 500 tau sau npe nce 26.89% hauv 2021 thiab poob 7.7% txog tam sim no hauv 2022.
Muaj 20 lwm lub sijhawm thaum S&P 500 Performance index tau tshaj tawm lub xyoo nce ntawm 20% lossis ntau dua thiab tau poob qis tsawg kawg 5% hauv xyoo tom ntej. Thaum xws li kev poob qis, tom qab kev nce qib loj hauv xyoo dhau los, tau tshwm sim hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tshiab, thiab nws muaj 12 lub sijhawm, kev ua lag luam tau rov qab los tawg txawm tias 100% ntawm lub sijhawm.
Stovall sau tseg tias qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb tab sis tseem ceeb.
Cov tub luam yuav tsum ua dab tsi?
Qhov zoo tshaj plaws lub tswv yim thaum lub sij hawm downturns tej zaum yuav tsis muaj lub tswv yim ntawm tag nrho cov, tab sis nws tag nrho nyob ntawm koj txoj kev pheej hmoo kam rau ua thiab koj lub sij hawm qab ntug. Hatfield hais tias "Ua tsis muaj dab tsi feem ntau yog lub tswv yim zoo tshaj plaws," Hatfield hais.
Nws kuj tau taw qhia rau cov haujlwm tiv thaiv, xws li cov neeg siv khoom siv
XLP,
hlauv taws xob
XLU,
thiab lub zog
XLE,
uas feem ntau nqa cov nyiaj tau los noj qab haus huv thiab kev nqis peev ntau dua li cov khoom lag luam nyiam yog qhov kev xaiv zoo rau cov tub ua lag luam tab tom nrhiav rau hedge nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm tej zaum yuav ntau volatility.
Cov kws paub txog nyiaj txiag ib txwm ceev faj tsis txhob ua ib yam dab tsi ua pob, tab sis lawv kuj hais tias qee tus neeg Asmeskas muaj ntau qhov laj thawj yuav txhawj xeeb dua li lwm tus, nyob ntawm lawv lub hnub nyoog thiab peev txheej. Ib tus neeg laus tuaj yeem xav tham txog qhov xwm txheej nrog lawv tus kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag thiab cov tub ua lag luam yau tuaj yeem tuav nruj yog tias lawv txaus siab rau lawv qhov kev nqis peev tam sim no, cov tswv yim hais.
Pullbacks tuaj yeem yog lub sijhawm rau kev khaws cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yog tias ib tus neeg ua lag luam muaj kev paub zoo thiab txiav txim siab xaiv lawv cov peev txheej. Txawm li cas los xij, kev poob qis feem ntau ua rau muaj kev xav hauv Hive, nrog cov neeg koom ua lag luam muag hauv kev tsav tsheb.
Kev ua lag luam poob qis "co cov neeg lag luam kev ntseeg siab thiab nyiam muag ntau dua," Hatfield hais.
Thaum kawg, txawm tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau ceev faj thiab ntse txog seb lawv xav li cas txog kev ua lag luam, txawm tias nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm kev sib tsoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the- hnub-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo