Ntau qhov kev ntsuas vaj tsev nyob rau lub asthiv no yuav tsum qhia tias muaj kev poob qis. Qhov kev xav ntawd kuj tau hais tawm hauv cov lus tsis ntev los no los ntawm cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis hauv vaj tsev ntawm kev hu xov tooj.
Affordability muaj loj hlob hauv qhov tseem ceeb raws li cov nqi nce thiab cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj kaum xyoo. Qhov nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm 30-xyoo cov tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce ntau dua ob feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus txij li thaum nws nyeem ntawv kawg hauv 2021 txog 5.3% lub lim tiam dhau los, raws li Freddie Mac cov ntaub ntawv, nws qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li lub caij ntuj sov xyoo 2009.
Kev them taus feem ntau yog siab dua nws qhov nruab nrab mus sij hawm ntev, raws li RBC Capital Markets tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas Mike Dahl, uas taug qab qhov ntsuas los ntawm kev suav cov nyiaj them txhua hli rau lub tsev uas twb muaj lawm raws li ib feem ntawm thaj chaw cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab. Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hais tias kev them taus yuav zoo li tsis muaj zog, ib yam nkaus, vim tias tus naj npawb ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom tseem muaj zog dua li cov khoom muag ntawm cov tsev muaj los yuav.
Cov neeg ua lag luam yuav tau txais qhov tseeb qhia txog yuav ua li cas nce tus nqi thiab cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau cuam tshuam qhov kev thov rau lub lim tiam no. Lub Plaub Hlis vaj tse pib thiab tso cai, ob qhov ntsuas ntawm kev tsim tsev tshiab tso tawm los ntawm Census Bureau thiab Department of Housing and Urban Development, yuav tsum nyob rau hnub Wednesday. Hnub Thursday, National Association of Realtors yuav tshaj tawm lub hli tas los cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom hauv tsev uas twb muaj lawm.
Tag nrho cov kev ntsuas yuav tsum tau them rau lub lim tiam no yuav tsum poob qis ntawm lub caij nyoog-hloov lub hauv paus piv nrog lub hli dhau los. Kev pom zoo kwv yees taug qab los ntawm FactSet cia siab tias lub Plaub Hlis tso cai yuav poob rau lub caij nyoog-hloov txhua xyoo tus nqi ntawm 1.8 lab los ntawm 1.87 lab hauv lub Peb Hlis, thaum lub tsev pib xav tias yuav yog 1.77 lab nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis, nqis los ntawm kwv yees li 1.79 lab lub hlis ua ntej.
Kev muag khoom hauv tsev uas twb muaj lawm tau kwv yees tias yuav poob rau lub caij nyoog hloov kho txhua xyoo ntawm 5.6 lab, nqis los ntawm 5.77 lab hauv lub Peb Hlis. Kev muag khoom hauv tsev, qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev yuav khoom hauv tsev suav nrog pawg lag luam, poob 1.2% hauv lub Peb Hlis.
Lub caij no, qhov kev sib tw ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tsis ntev los no tso tawm los ntawm cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis thev naus laus zis
Redfin
(ticker: RDFN),
Opendoor yees
(OPEN), thiab
Zillow Pawg
(Z) muab cov lus qhia txog dab tsi yuav los rau lub tsev lag luam.
Nov yog peb qhov kev thov rau cov tub ua lag luam:
1. Kev ua lag luam vaj tsev txias
Kev lag luam vaj tsev tseem kub heev thoob plaws feem ntau ntawm kev sib kis, nrog rau kev thov yuav lub tsev ntau dhau ntawm cov khoom siv tsawg. Tam sim no, raws li kev txhawj xeeb txog kev them nyiaj hauv tsev yog theem nruab nrab, cov tuam txhab tau hais tias lawv cia siab tias kev lag luam yuav tsis muaj kev ntxhov siab.
Carrie Wheeler, Opendoor's CFO, tau hais tias "Qhov peb tab tom tswj hwm yog qhov kev xav tias kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav txias mus rau ib nrab xyoo tom qab," Carrie Wheeler, Opendoor's CFO, tau hais rau ntawm kev hu xov tooj nyiaj tau los ua ntej lub Tsib Hlis. Wheeler tau hais tias lub tuam txhab cia siab tias qhov kev txaus siab hauv tsev yuav qeeb qeeb vim tias cov paj laum nce thiab kev pheej yig hauv tsev los ntawm kev ntxhov siab.
Kev nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau ntxiv rau cov neeg yuav khoom. Ib tsom xam ntawm cov neeg thov qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag tau pom tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov nyiaj txais qiv nyiaj tau thov rau hauv tebchaws yog $ 1,736 hauv lub Peb Hlis, nce ntawm $ 387 los ntawm ib xyoos ua ntej.
Zillow tseem cia siab tias yuav muaj kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev. Nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub Tsib Hlis 9, Zillow tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus Jeff Tucker tau hais tias kev lag luam vaj tsev "khiav cov ntaub ntawv yuav xaus sai sai no, vim tias kev lag luam vaj tsev hla dhau qhov cuam tshuam." Cov kev hloov pauv tuaj, zoo li kev txo qis hauv tsev-tus nqi txaus siab thiab cov khoom muag hauv tsev ntxiv, yuav zoo rau cov neeg yuav khoom, Tucker sau.
Tab sis kev lag luam qeeb tsis tas txhais tau tias kev sib tsoo yuav los. "Txawm hais tias kev them taus tau poob qis nrog tus nqi nce hauv ob xyoos dhau los, tam sim no tsis tshua muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev yuam muag vim lub zog ntawm cov neeg siv khoom sib npaug," said Opendoor's Wheeler.
2. Tab sis qhov txias npaum li cas yog leej twg xav tau
Tsawg kawg rau tam sim no, tseem muaj teeb meem khoom siv.
"Peb tseem yog cov khoom lag luam txwv," said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman ntawm kev hu xov tooj rau cov nyiaj tau los ua ntej lub hlis no - tab sis qhov tsis sib xws ntawm kev thov thiab kev xa khoom tsis zoo ib yam nyob txhua qhov chaw. "Tsuas muaj ob peb lub khw xws li Seattle, Denver, Tacoma, thaj chaw hauv California, qhov chaw nyob hauv khw, thiab lawv tsuas yog zaum me ntsis xwb."
Cov kev kwv yees tam sim no-tsev muag khoom tam sim no los ntawm Fannie Mae, Lub Koom Haum Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Hauv Tsev, thiab National Association of Realtors hu rau kev muag khoom hauv tsev kom poob rau xyoo no, nrog rau 2022 kev kwv yees muag txij li 5.6 lab txog 5.9 lab. Qhov ntawd tau nqis los ntawm kwv yees li 6.1 lab lub tsev muag hauv 2021, tab sis tseem siab dua qhov kev kis tus kabmob kis ntawm 5.34 lab hauv 2019.
Kev lag luam headwinds - zoo li qib qis ntawm cov khoom muag thiab nce cov paj laum - ua rau nws nyuaj rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev, Rich Barton co-founder thiab CEO ntawm Zillow, tau hais. "Txhua tus neeg tau tawm tswv yim txog qhov kev lag luam txawv txawv nws yog qhov kev xav tau siab lossis kev xav tau-kev tsis txaus siab, uas tsis tau ua rau nws tus kheej tau qee lub sijhawm," Barton hais. "Kev lag luam tau cia siab tias nws yuav ua li ntawd, tab sis qhov kev hloov pauv hauv qab, cov pej xeem txhawb nqa ntau thiab ntau qhov kev thov tuaj hauv online muaj zog."
"Nws tsis yog txhua yam kev puas tsuaj thiab kev tsaus ntuj, tab sis nws yog pos huab," nws hais ntxiv.
Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm lub lim tiam no kev lag luam tawm yuav zoo li yuav pab pleev xim rau daim duab surer - thiab tso cai rau cov tub lag luam los ntsuas cov tuam txhab cov lus tshaj tawm tawm tsam kev lag luam vaj tsev ntau dua.
3. Qee qhov kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tseem ua si
Kev siv dav dav ntawm txoj cai ua haujlwm hauv tsev thaum ntxov hauv kev sib kis tau pab txhawb rau nce kev sib tw thiab tus nqi loj hlob hauv qee lub khw.
Kev faib tawm ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm uas tau ua haujlwm hauv xov tooj vim tias muaj kev sib kis tau poob qis tsis ntev los no, poob rau 7.7% hauv lub Plaub Hlis los ntawm 10% hauv lub Peb Hlis, raws li cov ntaub ntawv. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tab sis lub peev xwm ntawm qee tus neeg ua haujlwm ua haujlwm los ntawm txhua qhov chaw tseem yog lub zog hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, raws li Redfin's CEO.
Kelman tau hais tias "Nws ib txwm yog tias thaum vaj tsev pheej yig dua, ib tus neeg hauv San Francisco yuav saib mus ntxiv los ntawm kev mus ncig 60 feeb, 90 feeb," Kelman tau hais. "Tab sis tam sim no tsis muaj kev mus los."
Cov neeg yuav khoom tam sim no tab tom saib hauv ntau lub lag luam ib zaug, CEO tau hais thaum lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los hu. "Raws li cov paj laum los ntawm 3% mus rau 4%, mus rau 5% thiab dhau mus, es tsis txhob muaj peev xwm them taus tsev tsawg, [cov neeg yuav khoom] mus rau qhov chaw uas cov nqi tsev qis dua," Kelman hais. Kev thov tau hloov mus rau kev lag luam nyob rau sab qab teb thiab Sunbelt los ntawm kev lag luam ntug hiav txwv, lub tuam txhab tau hais.
Sau ntawv rau Shaina Mishkin ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-market-real-estate-earnings-51652827465?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo