Ether (ETH) zoo li muaj kev sib raug zoo nrog S&P 500. Ntawm no yog dab tsi tshwm sim thiab nws txhais li cas rau Ethereum's Merge. 👇
TL; DR
- Hauv xyoo 2021, cov tuam txhab lag luam tau pib nqis peev ntau hauv ETH, muab nws sawv ntawm ib tug loj tech peev.
- ETH's 30 hnub correlation matrix nrog S&P 500 tau nce los ntawm 5 txij li xyoo 2017.
- Nws tsis paub meej tias cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag ib txwm nkag siab lossis saib xyuas Ethereum cov thev naus laus zis hauv qab.
- Ether tus nqi tuaj yeem tsav ntau dua los ntawm kev lag luam dav dua li qhov kev xav zoo txog kev sib koom ua ke.
Kev sib txheeb txhais tau hais tias ob lub cuab tam txav mus rau tib qho kev taw qhia tib lub sijhawm - thaum ib tus nce mus, lwm qhov nce mus; thaum ib tug nqis mus, lwm tus mus. Tab sis kev sib raug zoo tsis txhais hais tias ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam. Ib qho ntawm cov khoom muaj feem cuam tshuam yuav yog ua rau lwm tus mus nrog nws, los nws yuav tsis. Kev sib raug zoo kuj tsis txhais hais tias ob lub cuab tam txav mus rau tib qho kev taw qhia nrog tib yam nrawm.
Yog tias koj tso $ 1,000 rau tag nrho S&P 500 thaum Lub Ib Hlis 1, 2017, hnub no koj yuav nce ntau dua 84%. Tsis phem. Yog tias koj muab tib yam $ 1,000 rau hauv ETH thaum Lub Ib Hlis 1, 2017, hnub no koj yuav dhau mus 19,000%. Wow.
Hauv qhov kev nkag siab no, ETH thiab S&P 500 zoo li muaj kev sib raug zoo ntxiv. 30-hnub keeb kwm correlation matrix yog ib qho kev ntsuas ntsuas ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm ob lub cuab tam tus nqi. Nws txawv ntawm:
- 1: Cov cuab yeej cuab tam muaj kev sib raug zoo zoo, txhais tau tias lawv cov nqi ib txwm txav mus rau tib qho kev taw qhia.
- Minus 1: Cov cuab tam muaj qhov tsis zoo sib xws, txhais tau tias lawv cov nqi ib txwm txav mus rau qhov sib txawv raws nraim.
Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2, 2017, ETH-S&P 500 correlation matrix yog 0.17, kwv yees li 17% zoo sib xws. Thaum Lub Yim Hli 29, 2022, qhov sib txheeb matrix yog 0.84, kwv yees li 84% kev sib raug zoo.
Lwm cov cryptocurrencies qhia txawv qib ntawm kev sib raug zoo rau S&P 500. Bitcoin's correlation matrix yog 0.64. Solana, 0.48. Doge0.42 ib. Tab sis Ethereum qhia tau hais tias muaj kev sib raug zoo tshwj xeeb.
Rau qee qhov, ETH thiab S&P 500 yeej ib txwm muaj kev sib raug zoo, vim tias ETH tus nqi yeej ib txwm teb rau tib yam kev lag luam dav uas txav S&P 500. 2017-2018 crypto lub caij ntuj no roughly correlated nrog ib tug zuag qhia tag nrho poob nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam tej yam kev mob ( ntsuas los ntawm Purchase Managers 'Index, los yog "PMI").
Lub sijhawm ntawd, Bitcoin tus nqi poob los ntawm kwv yees li 80% thiab Ether tus nqi poob los ntawm kwv yees li 90%. Tab sis tib lub sijhawm ntawd, S&P 500 tiag tiag sawv me ntsis. Yog li, ETH thiab S&P 500 tsis tau tuav tes los ntawm kev nce thiab nqis.
Qhov tseeb yog qhov kev sib raug zoo ntawm ETH thiab S&P 500 yog qhov cuam tshuam me ntsis. Qee zaum lawv muaj kev sib raug zoo heev. Thiab lwm lub sijhawm lawv tsis yog. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov pom tseeb yog tias lawv qhov kev sib raug zoo tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo dua nyob rau lub sijhawm.
Ntawm no yog a teeb ntawm ETH-S&P 500 correlation matrix rau 2018 - bumpy.
Nov yog tib daim duab rau 2020 - smoother.
Thiab ntawm no yog tib daim duab rau 2022 - smoothest.
Yog li dab tsi tshwm sim ntawm no? Vim li cas S&P 500, 65-xyoo-laus Tshuag Performance index, thiab ETH, ib tug scrappy upstary blockchain tsim los ntawm 20-ib yam dab tsi computer nerd uas nyiam pajamas liab thiab miv hnab, zoo li yuav poob rau ib leeg?
Nws yog tej zaum tib yam vim li cas Ethereum thiab FTSE muaj kev sib raug zoo ntawm matrix 0.74. Thiab yog vim li cas Bticoin thiab S&P 500 muaj kev sib txheeb matrix ntawm 0.64. Cov lus teb luv luv? Institutional nyiaj.
Cov keeb kwm luv luv ntawm lub tuam txhab peev hauv ETH
S&P 500 yog ib qho khoom lag luam uas suav nrog qee lub tuam txhab Asmeskas loj tshaj plaws. Cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam uas tsav cov khoom lag luam no yog cov tuam txhab lag luam qub qub qub xws li JP Morgan thiab Morgan Stanley.
Thaum Ethereum pib hauv 2015, cov tsev txhab nyiaj no tsis txaus siab tshwj xeeb hauv kev nqis peev loj hauv nws. Rov qab thaum ntawd, feem ntau ntawm lawv tseem tab tom sim txiav txim siab seb puas yuav nqis peev hauv bitcoin. Qhov tseeb, kev lag luam crypto txiaj tsis tau pib ua haujlwm kom txog rau thaum 2018, thiab tsis tau tawm mus. kom txog thaum 2020.
Xyoo tom ntej, 2021, cov tub ua lag luam hauv tsev tau pib noj ib qho txaus siab heev hauv Ethereum. Tab sis nrog lub koom haum nyiaj los ntawm lub koom haum xav. Yog li, tib lub siab uas tau tsav tus nqi ntawm S&P 500 tam sim no kuj tau tsav tus nqi ETH - kom zoo dua lossis phem dua.
Lub neej tom ntej Ethereum sib koom nthuav tawm qhov kev sim siab ntawm qhov xwm txheej tshiab no.
Bankers thiab Merge
Lub Merge, xav tias nyob ib ncig ntawm lub Cuaj Hli 15, 2022, yog kev hloov kho tshiab rau Ethereum blockchain uas yuav:
- Hloov lub network los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj ntawm kev pom zoo ua haujlwm rau kev pov thawj ntawm ceg txheem ntseeg
- Ua kom lub network tshaj 99% ntau zog
- Txo ETH cov khoom siv tag nrho
- Npaj lub network rau kev hloov kho tshiab tom ntej
Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum tus tsim, yog zoo siab heev. Feem ntau Ethereum proponents yog bullish. Thiab, dhau los ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Yim Hli, kev ua lag luam zoo li pom zoo raws li tus nqi ntawm ETH tsis tu ncua. Tab sis puas yog Merge tsav tus nqi, lossis ETH puas tau nqa los ntawm ob peb lub lis piam ntawm kev xav ntawm kev lag luam zoo?
Nws yog ib qho nyuaj los ua pov thawj, tau kawg - nco ntsoov, kev sib raug zoo tsis ua pov thawj ua rau.
Tab sis nws tseem ceeb heev uas tom qab US Federal Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau tshaj tawm cov paj laum tshiab rau lub Yim Hli 26, S&P 500 poob, thiab ETH poob nrog nws.
Tam sim no, ETH cov tuam txhab lag luam puas paub thiab / lossis saib xyuas thiab / lossis nkag siab txog Kev Sib Koom Tes? Pov thawj ntawm ceg txheem ntseeg? Deflationary tokenomics? Thiab, saib yav dhau los Merge, lawv puas paub txog qhov tom ntej ntawm Ethereum hloov khoom dua tshiab - Lub Surge, Verge, Purge, thiab Splurge?
Crypto tsis yog kob
Kev sib cav thiab kev cia siab nyob ib puag ncig Ethereum's Merge yog nyob rau txhua lub sijhawm-siab hauv ntiaj teb crypto. Scaling, nqe, efficiency, nqi, koj lub npe nws: Cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws crypto kev sib tham yog tsis tu ncua nyob ib ncig ntawm lub moos - feem ntau yog los ntawm lub vantage point ntawm crypto nws tus kheej. Tab sis ETH qhov kev sib raug zoo ntxiv nrog S&P 500 yuav tsum ua qhov ceeb toom tias crypto tsis muaj kob - txawm tias tag nrho nws cov quirks, nws tseem yog ib feem ntawm lub teb chaws macro.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.okx.com/academy/en/is-ether-in-love-with-the-sp-500