Ib tsab ntawv dhau los ntawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom no sau tsis raug lub npe Jefferie Curry ntawm Goldman Sachs. Nws tau raug kho lawm.
Ib qho kev sib sau ua ke ntawm Astarta-Kyiv agri-industrial tuav sau qoob loo thaum Lub Yim Hli 5, 2022 hauv cheeb tsam Khmelnytskyi ntawm Ukraine. Nyob rau hauv ib txwm lub sij hawm, Ukraine yog ib lub ntiaj teb no tus loj tshaj plaws exporters, tab sis lub Lavxias teb sab ntxeem tau thiab naval blockade tau dais lab metric tons ntawm nplej ntawm no, tsa kev ntshai ntawm lub ntiaj teb no zaub mov ntsoog.
Yees duab © Alexey Furman / Getty Images
Cov neeg lag luam suav nrog kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kom rub cov khoom lag luam qis dua tuaj yeem raug cuam tshuam nrog cov khoom siv txaus ntshai thiab kev nce nqi, vim tias kev ua lag luam poob qis hauv qhov tsis sib xws, Goldman Sachs tau ceeb toom cov neeg siv khoom.
"Hnub no, cov khw muag khoom lag luam zoo li tuav qhov kev cia siab tsis txaus ntseeg, vim tias cov nqi thiab cov khoom muag poob ua ke, kev xav tau yeej qhov kev cia siab thiab kev poob siab," Goldman tus thawj coj ntawm cov khoom lag luam tshawb fawb Jeffrey Currie thiab nws pab neeg, hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Thursday.
Lawv pom tias cov khoom lag luam tau txav los ntawm kev xa khoom mus rau destocking, nrog cov neeg siv khoom siv cov khoom muag ntawm tus nqi siab dua ntawm kev cia siab tias kev lag luam dav dav yuav tsim cov khoom ntxiv.
"Txawm li cas los xij yog tias qhov no ua pov thawj tsis raug thiab cov khoom siv ntau dhau tsis ua tiav raws li peb xav tau, cov khoom lag luam rov qab yuav ua rau muaj qhov tsis txaus, thawb cov nqi siab dua lub caij nplooj zeeg no, muaj peev xwm yuam cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab los tsim kom muaj kev sib cog lus ntau dua los sib npaug ntawm cov khoom lag luam," Currie hais.
Kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tam sim no tau nqis peev hauv qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev lag luam muag muag, kev nce nyiaj tsawg ntxiv, kev loj hlob txaus kom cov nyiaj tau los txhawb rau xyoo 2023 thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag. Cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj ntawm qhov kawg tau tshwm sim rau lub lim tiam no vim tias ob qho tib si Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom thiab cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam tus nqi tsis txaus siab, tsav kev cia siab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tuaj yeem yooj yim rau txoj cai nruj sai dua tom qab.
Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam
"Nyob rau hauv peb qhov kev xav, macro lag luam yog tus nqi ib qho kev tsis sib haum xeeb - nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau square ib softening [nyiaj txiag Performance index], ib tug ntau haum Fed pivot, poob nyiaj txiag kev cia siab thiab kos cov khoom muag khoom muag," said Goldman pab neeg.
Pab pawg tau hais tias lawv pom "kev pheej hmoo loj zuj zus rau tus nqi khoom lag luam uas muaj nyob hauv
Qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua, kev poob haujlwm tsawg thiab kev ruaj khov hauv tsev neeg yuav khoom. "
Thaum tawm highs pom tom qab Russia qhov ntxeem tau ntawm Ukraine ua ntej xyoo no, ob lub US
CL.1,
thiab thoob ntiaj teb benchmark Brent crude
BRN00,
yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 30% siab dua kom txog rau tam sim no hauv 2022. Cov roj av tau nce ntau dua 4% lub lim tiam no, txhawb nqa los ntawm siab dua kev kwv yees rau roj-kev loj hlob xav tau los ntawm International Energy Agency, uas tau hais tias Tebchaws Europe lub caij ntuj sov cua sov thiab cov khoom siv roj av nruj tau tsav cov roj siv ntau dua rau kev tsim hluav taws xob.
Lwm cov lus ceeb toom kuj tseem yuav mus tsis tau pom, Currie thiab pab neeg tau piav qhia.
"Hnub no, kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees thiab cov khoom lag luam tau qhia rau cov tub ua lag luam pheej xav tau ntau dua thiab cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv, thaum cov nqi thiab cov nyiaj txiag nkhaus tau qhia tias yuav muaj kev poob qis thiab kev lag luam softening. Txog thaum peb pom cov khoom lag luam tiag tiag soften, peb tseem raug txim ntawm tus qub, tsis yog tom kawg, "lawv hais.
Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Goldman tau hais tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau saib cov keeb kwm yav dhau los, sau tseg tias sab nraud ntawm kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw uas cuam tshuam rau kev thov sai hauv lub Peb Hlis 2020, txhua qhov kev lag luam ua ntej tau pom cov khoom lag luam nce siab nyob rau hauv thawj lub hlis vim qhov xav tau tseem tshuav saum cov khoom siv. Exogenous shocks xws li 2001 neeg ua phem tawm tsam thiab credit ntsoog ntawm 2008 yog kev zam raws li kev thov kom qeeb qeeb tom qab cov xwm txheej ntawd.
Thiab thaum tus nqi siab ua kom tag nrho cov haujlwm txwv tsis pub muaj, tshwj xeeb hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab ntawm cov lag luam tawm tshiab, qhov tshwm sim tsis tshua zoo li cov khoom lag luam poob qis vim tias cov roj xav tau tseem noj qab haus huv, nrog rau tooj liab, alumunium thiab taum pauv.
"Qhov tseeb, ntawm cov khoom lag luam loj, tsuas yog pob kws thiab hlau ore xav tau
cia siab tias yuav tau cog lus nyob rau lub sijhawm ze, raws li kev xav tau kev puas tsuaj thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv Suav tsis muaj zog ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam txog micro, "lawv hais.
Nyeem: Goldman txiav kev kwv yees rau cov nqi kub thiab nyiaj
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/irrational-expectations-are-keeping-commodity-prices-unsustainably-low-warns-goldman-11660304177?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo