Keeb kwm tuaj yeem yog lub cuab yeej muaj zog, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig kev lag luam siab zoo li qhov no uas tsis muaj cov qauv kev lag luam tsim nyog zoo li siv tau.
Inflation - khiav ntawm 8.3% raws li lub Plaub Hlis, ze rau a plaub-xyoos siab - tau nyob twj ywm tsis tu ncua rau ib xyoos rau qhov xav tsis thoob ntawm txhua tus neeg uas taug qab nws. Tam sim no muaj kev pheej hmoo tias tus nqi nce yuav siv sij hawm ntev dua li qhov kev cia siab tias yuav poob qis, txawm tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau aggressively hiking cov paj laum.
Qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawd tau hais meej rau hnub Thursday los ntawm BofA Securities tus kws tshaj lij Vadim Iaralov, Howard Du thiab lwm tus, uas tau taw qhia rau lub sijhawm ntawm 1974 thiab 1988 yog lub sijhawm sib piv tshaj plaws uas cov xov xwm txhua xyoo US cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas tau nce siab zoo ib yam li lub sijhawm. Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev kis thoob ntiaj teb xyoo 2019-2022.
Xyoo 1980, nrog rau Fed lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb tshaj 10% rau feem ntau ntawm xyoo ntawd, cov xov xwm txhua xyoo CPI, kuj yog ob tus lej, tseem tsis poob qis dua 3% tom qab 36 lub hlis "txawm tias nyob rau sab nraum qab ntawm qhov tsis tau pom dua tus nqi nce ntxiv. tau tsim los ntawm Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Paul Volcker, "lawv hais.
Qhov no kuj yog qhov tshwm sim thaum lub sijhawm ua ntej Volcker xyoo, thaum Fed tau coj los ntawm Arthur Burns thiab G. William Miller. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 1973, thaum CPI tus nqi txhua xyoo yog hovering ze 6% tab sis npaj siab kom nce siab, Burns-coj Fed tau thawb cov nyiaj tau los tshaj 10%, FactSet cov ntaub ntawv qhia. Cov neeg tsim cai lij choj tau coj cov paj laum mus rau 9% rau rau lub hlis, tom qab ntawd thawb lawv rov qab mus rau 10% lossis siab dua mus txog nruab nrab-1974. Tab sis tus nqi CPI tsis poob qis dua 6% mus txog rau ib nrab xyoo 1976.
Raws li Miller lub sij hawm luv luv los ntawm 1978 txog 1979, kev nce nqi tau rov qab los txog thaum nws nyob hauv ob tus lej dua. Cov neeg tsim cai tau rov qab los thawb tus nqi siab dua 10% dua, txawm tias ua ntej Volcker coj tus thawj coj.
Tsis muaj leej twg hais tias Fed tab tom yuav mus rau ob tus lej paj laum tam sim no, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum lub hom phiaj ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tsuas yog nyob nruab nrab ntawm 0.75% thiab 1% nrog rau ob qho ntxiv 50-txoj kev mus ncig ntawm txoj kev rau Lub Rau Hli thiab Lub Xya Hli. Tab sis yog tias qhov zoo li tawv ncauj-inflation dynamic plays tawm lub sijhawm no nyob ib puag ncig, nws yuav zoo li tsis txaus ntseeg rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, ua rau muaj kev sib npaug ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntxiv.
Economists zoo li cov ntawm BofA Securities tau cia siab tias lub xyoo dhau los CPI tus nqi yuav poob mus rau 3.3% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Cov tub luam kuj tau kwv yees tias tus nqi yuav poob rau xyoo tom ntej, mus txog 5% lossis qis dua. Thiab Fed tus lwm thawj coj, Lael Brainard, tau hais rau CNBC rau hnub Thursday tias ua rau kev nce nyiaj poob qis yog Fed qhov kev sib tw thib 1; nws tab tom nrhiav ib txoj hlua ntawm kev nyeem qis kom ntseeg tau tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau nws lub hom phiaj 2%.
Nyeem: Fed's Brainard hais tias nws tsis txhawb nqa 'pas' hauv kev nce nqi paj hauv lub Cuaj Hli
"Muaj ntau yam ntawm cov qauv keeb kwm uas muaj feem cuam tshuam: Piv txwv li, qhov kev nce nyiaj tau siv ntau xyoo los txhim kho, pheej loj hlob, thim rov qab, tom qab ntawd rov qab los thiab nyuaj rau tshem tawm," Mace McCain, tus thawj coj kev nqis peev ntawm. San Antonio-based Frost Investment Advisors, uas tswj hwm $ 4.7 billion.
"Qhov ntawd kuj yog qhov tseeb niaj hnub no, peb tsuas yog yuav tsum tau ceev faj me ntsis txog kev sib piv ncaj qha," McCain tau hais hauv xov tooj. Yav dhau los, Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam muaj zog cov koom haum ua haujlwm, uas nws hais tias tau pab txhawb rau cov nyiaj ua haujlwm ntawm tus nqi ntawm xyoo 1970 thiab 1980s.
Txog tam sim no, nws qhov kev cia siab hauv paus yog qhov kev nyeem ntawv CPI txhua xyoo yuav poob mus rau 4% lossis 5% thaum kawg ntawm lub Plaub Hlis ntawm qib 8.3%, ib puag ncig uas tseem yuav "ua rau tib neeg cov nyiaj tau los tiag tiag." CPI luam tawm tom ntej rau lub Tsib Hlis yog tas rau lub Rau Hli 10.
Kev lag luam nyiaj txiag tseem tsis txaus ntseeg tom qab Brainard cov lus hais. Cov nyiaj khwv tau los tau hloov me ntsis, nrog rau 10-xyoo tus nqi
TUBMUSD 10Y,
ntawm 2.92% raws li hnub Thursday tav su. Lub caij no, tag nrho peb qhov tseem ceeb ntawm US stock indexes
SPX,
COMP,
tau nce siab, shrugging tawm ua ntej tsis muaj zog.
Yog tias kev nce nqi poob qis qis dua qhov kev cia siab, BofA Cov kws tshaj lij kev nyab xeeb tau hais tias US duas thiab roj av "yuav raug teeb tsa kom ua tau zoo dua" rau lub xyoo tas los. Ib qho kev sib cog lus ntse hauv Lavxias cov roj xa tawm tuaj yeem ua rau "tag nrho-dhau ntawm 1980's-style roj teeb meem thiab thawb Brent zoo tshaj US $ 150 / chim," lawv hais hauv ib daim ntawv.
Thiab nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej tsis yog qhov xwm txheej uas kev nce nyiaj tau los ze dua rau nws qib tam sim no mus rau xyoo kawg, McCain tau hais tias nws yuav cia siab tias yuav muaj kev puas tsuaj ntau tshaj plaws rau 20-
TUBMUSD 20Y,
thiab 30-xyoo Treasury yields
TUBMUSD 30Y,
raws li cov tub ua lag luam muag tawm cov ntawv cog lus. "Yog tias kev nce nqi tsis nyob nruab nrab, qhov kev sib piv P / E keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias kev ua lag luam yuav tsum tau nqis peev qis dua," nws hais.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-may-be-in-for-this-rude-surprise-history-shows-inflation-can-take-years-to-return-to-normal- even-when-fed-hikes-above-10-11654192355?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo