Kev nqis peev hauv Tshuag: Thawj Ib Nrab Stunk, H2 Yuav Zoo dua?

Nrog rau thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 kaw hnub no thiab cov lag luam lag luam tseem ceeb indexes wallowing nyob ze los yog nyob rau hauv dais lag luam thaj chaw, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb xav tsis thoob yog tias lub thib ob ib nrab yuav coj ntau dua los yog ib tug loj rog rally. Puas yog lub sijhawm los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam?

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Nrog rau Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab raws li hnub Wednesday kaw 15%, S&P 500 tawm 20% thiab Nasdaq composite nqis 29%, nws yuav zoo kom paub yog tias nws yog lub sijhawm dhia rov qab thiab pib nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam kom caij tsheb zoo. thaub qab. Hmoov tsis zoo, tsis yog daim ntawv qhia hnub lossis keeb kwm tsis muaj kev taw qhia ntau txog seb peb nyob rau hauv qhov kev nce qib thib ob lossis mob ntau dua. Raws li cov pov thawj, txhua qhov kev sib tw yuav tshwm sim hauv nws lub sijhawm.

S&P 500's H1 poob yog qhov phem tshaj txij li thawj ib nrab xyoo 1970, thaum qhov ntsuas tau poob 21%. Thiab qhov kev poob qis H1 yog qhov thib peb phem tshaj plaws hauv S&P Dow Jones Indices Hall of Infamy rov qab mus rau 1957, raws li cov lus qhia.

Dab tsi ntxiv, txog rau hnub Wednesday - ib hnub mus rau thaum xaus ntawm lub hlis - S&P 500 tau nqis 7.58%, qhov phem tshaj Lub Rau Hli los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam txij li xyoo 2008 qhov poob 8.8%, raws li S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Lub Sijhawm Ua Lag Luam Hauv Tshuag?

Uas tau hais tias, keeb kwm muaj tsawg los tsis muaj kev sib raug zoo ntawm S&P 500 qhov kev ua tau zoo hauv thawj thiab thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, sau tseg Anu Ganti, tus thawj coj loj ntawm kev lag luam lag luam ntawm S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Saib ntawm cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau Lub Peb Hlis 31, 1957, nws sau tseg tias xyoo 1970 - ib xyoos nrog kev poob qis rau xyoo no - S&P 500 poob 21% hauv H1. Qhov ntawd tau ua raws li qhov nce ntawm 27% hauv H2. Cov kev nce thiab nqis ua rau nce ntawm tsuas yog 0.1% rau tag nrho lub xyoo.

Qhov kev ntxias yog xav tias yog tias koj tuaj yeem dim ntawm qhov poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab thiab tom qab ntawd tsuas yog nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam thaum Lub Xya Hli 1, koj yuav zoo. Qhov ntawd tau ua haujlwm hauv qee kis.

Nasdaq Composite

Dow Jones Cov Ntaub Ntawv Kev Lag Luam tau saib yuav ua li cas cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb tau ua nyob rau hauv ib nrab thib ob tom qab kev poob loj hauv thawj ib nrab.

Hauv qab no yog Nasdaq composite qhov kev ua tau zoo ib nrab thib ob thaum qhov Performance index poob tsawg kawg 20% ​​hauv thawj ib nrab:

S&P 500

Daim duab zoo li ci ntsa iab ntau dua rau S&P 500 thaum saib nws qhov kev ua tau zoo ib nrab thib ob thaum qhov ntsuas tau qis dua 15% hauv thawj ib nrab. Qhov ntsuas tau ua kom tau txais txiaj ntsig hauv txhua tsib lub sijhawm. Nco ntsoov tias cov ntaub ntawv no rov qab mus rau Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj.

Dow Jones Industrial Average kuj tau tsim cov txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev nqis peev feem ntau ntawm lub sijhawm thaum saib ntawm qhov kev ua tau zoo ib nrab tom qab qhov ntsuas tau poob qis tsawg kawg 10% hauv thawj ib nrab. Ntawm 15 qhov piv txwv ntawm qhov kev poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm Dow rov qab mus rau 1900, 10 tau ua raws li kev nce qib thib ob, thiab tsib tau ua raws li H2 poob. Qhov phem tshaj plaws thib ob Dow poob txij li xyoo 1970 yog 22.68% hauv 2008. Nrog rau qhov txiaj ntsig zoo thib ob ntawm 66.7% ntawm lub sijhawm, qhov nruab nrab nce yog 4.45%, thaum qhov nruab nrab yog 6.99%.

Yog li cas koj siv cov ntaub ntawv no kom tau nyiaj hauv khw muag khoom? Puas yog lub sijhawm los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam? IBD tus tsim William O'Neil pom cov pov thawj me me tias kev nqis peev nruj me ntsis los ntawm daim ntawv qhia hnub yuav tsim cov txiaj ntsig, tab sis nws tau qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev hauv ntau cov peev nyiaj sib txawv yuav tsum pib ntxiv rau lawv cov ntaub ntawv txhua lub sij hawm lub lag luam nyob rau hauv lub lag luam ua lag luam.

Vim li cas? Vim tias txhua lub lag luam dais tau ntseeg tau ua raws li kev lag luam bull. Diversified stock funds yog ib lub sij hawm koj tsis tas yuav muaj tseeb ntawm kev nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam. Nrog tus kheej cov khoom lag luam, tau kawg, kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam tsuas yog thaum lub kev ua lag luam yog nyob rau hauv ib tug paub tseeb uptrend ua haujlwm zoo tshaj plaws.

S&P Dow Jones 'Ganti pom zoo tias tsis muaj pov thawj me me tias kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam raws li hnub tim yuav tsim cov txiaj ntsig zoo. Tab sis nws sau tseg tias lub sijhawm muaj kev hloov pauv loj, raws li peb tau pom xyoo no, tuaj yeem coj cov sijhawm rau cov tub lag luam nquag.

Kev hloov pauv loj hauv cov haujlwm, hauv kev nqis peev xws li kev loj hlob piv rau tus nqi, thiab hauv cov cuab yeej cuab tam tuaj yeem tso cai rau cov tub ua lag luam txawj ntse kom tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo dua cov tub ua lag luam yuav-thiab-tuav, nws hais. Nyob twj ywm ceeb toom rau lub viav vias loj hauv kev sib txheeb ntawm kev loj hlob thiab cov khoom muaj nqis tuaj yeem ua rau cov txiaj ntsig tau.

Kev nqis peev hauv Tshuag: Kev Loj Hlob Vs. Tus nqi

Txog hnub Tuesday, S&P 500 Tus Nqi Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij 500 Tus Nqi Them Nqi Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Tawm los ntawm 14.83 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus. Qhov ntawd yog nws qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws thawj ib nrab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv rov qab mus rau 1994. S&P 500 Tus Nqi tau nqis 13% rau lub xyoo txog hnub Tuesday.

Nyob rau theem ntawd nws yuav yog qhov phem tshaj thawj ib nrab txij li xyoo 2020, thaum nws poob 16.8% hauv thawj rau lub hlis xyoo, sau tseg Dow Jones Market Data. Thiab nws yog nyob rau hauv pace rau nws thib peb-qhov phem tshaj thawj-ib nrab kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov ntaub ntawv.

Qhov ntawd zoo li tsis zoo, tab sis tsis zoo li thaum piv nrog S&P 500 Kev Loj Hlob Index. Nws tau nqis 27.8% txog hnub Tuesday, dhau qhov phem tshaj thawj ib nrab txij li xyoo 1994 los ntawm ntau dua 10 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus.

Tib tus qauv tuaj yeem pom hauv kev nqis peev me me. Tus Russell 2000 Tus Nqi Index yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj ntawm Russell 2000 Kev Loj Hlob Index los ntawm 13.28 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus, nws qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj plaws thawj ib nrab txij li xyoo 2021. Russell 2000 Tus Nqi Index tau nqis 17.9% rau thawj ib nrab txog hnub Tuesday.

Qhov ntawd yuav yog qhov phem tshaj thawj ib nrab txij li H1 2020, thaum nws poob 24.4%. Txawm li cas los xij, Russell 2000 Kev Loj Hlob Index tau nqis 31.2%. Nyob rau theem ntawd nws yuav yog qhov phem tshaj thawj ib nrab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv, tshaj qhov phem tshaj tom ntej ntawm 17.5%.

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