Cov khoom lag luam swings dampen Q2 GDP thaum kev lag luam tawm hws ntxiv nruj

Kev ntshai ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis yog qhov tseem ceeb rau tag kis no nrog kev tso tawm cov ntaub ntawv GDP hauv Asmeskas, qhia qhov thib ob peb lub hlis twg. contraction. Qhov no los ntawm ib tus ceev tshaj plaws txoj cai normalization kev siv zog hauv Fed keeb kwm, ua ke nrog plaub-xyoo caum tus nqi muag khoom siab.

GDP tau cog lus 0.9% nyob rau hauv Q2 2022 nyob rau hauv ib xyoos twg, los nyob rau hauv siab tshaj Atlanta Fed's 27^th Lub Xya hli ntuj 2022 forecast ntawm -1.2% YoY. Qhov no ua raws li kev cog lus ntawm 1.6% hauv Q1 2022.

Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?

Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.

Qhov tsis meej pem ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv kev khiav mus rau cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm tau tshwm sim nrog kev lag luam kwv yees li ntawm 2% kev cog lus mus rau 2% nthuav dav, cuam tshuam txog qhov tsis paub tseeb hauv kev lag luam.

Raws li ING economists, kev kwv yees kev kwv yees kwv yees yog nyob ntawm +0.4%.

Kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob nrog 2021 pom kev cuam tshuam loj thoob ntiaj teb, thiab xyoo no tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam ua tsaug rau ob qho kev ua tsov rog Russia-Ukraine thiab kev kaw-dua-tawm-dua-dhau kev kaw thoob plaws hauv Suav chaw loj.

Jerome Powell hauv nws txoj cai nyiaj txiag hais lus nag hmo tau hais meej tias "Peb xav tias nws yuav tsum muaj kev loj hlob qeeb ... peb xav tau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob hauv qab lub peev xwm los tsim qee qhov qis kom cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem ntes tau." 

Cov ntaub ntawv tawg

Q2 GDP txo qis tau tsav los ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob qis, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tsev qis, txo tsoomfwv kev siv nyiaj los ntawm cov tub ceev xwm hauv zos, xeev thiab tsoomfwv, thiab txo kev lag luam kev lag luam thaum xa tawm ntau dua.

Kev nce nqi nce ntxiv thiab sawv ntawm plaub-xyoo caum siab tsis txaus siab rau kev yuav khoom.

Kev nqis peev ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau qis dua tom qab txo qis hauv kev lag luam muag khoom; Kev nqis peev vaj tsev tau nqis 14% qhia txog kev txo qis hauv kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua thiab kev tsim kho qeeb; Tsoom fwv cov kev siv nyiaj poob qis, coj los ntawm cov nuj nqis tsis tiv thaiv; kev lag luam kev nqis peev tau qis dua vim kev nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab khoom siv tau raug txo qis; thaum cov khoom xa tawm thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv tau ntau dua los ntawm kev mus ncig thiab kev thov rau cov kev pabcuam xws li kev xa khoom noj, raws li.

Cov khoom lag luam, cov joker hauv pob

Txog rau thaum xaus ntawm 2021, cov tuam txhab ntiag tug hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau nqis peev ntau hauv cov khoom lag luam tsim kom tsis txhob muaj teeb meem thoob ntiaj teb cov saw hlau. Txawm li cas los xij, feem ntau ntawm cov koom haum no tseem ceeb heev ntxeev siab muab qhov acceleration hauv kev nce nqi thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv qhov tseem ceeb xws li khoom noj khoom haus thiab lub zog, yuam kom unwinding ntawm stocks nyob rau hauv lub quarter.

Lub unwinding ntawm cov khoom ntiag tug coj mus rau -2.1% kev koom tes rau GDP, nrog rau BEA, sau cia tias qhov no yog vim "kev txo qis hauv kev lag luam muag khoom lag luam (feem ntau yog cov khw muag khoom muag nrog rau cov tswv lag luam tsheb)".

Ib daim ntawv tshaj tawm S&P tau kwv yees qhov kev cog lus ntawm 1.3% tab sis tau sau tseg tias thaum tsis muaj cov khoom lag luam poob qis, kev lag luam yuav muaj peev xwm loj hlob.

Qhov kev rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam tawm mus rau qhov qhib ntawm 1.4% ua rau kev lag luam poob qis ntxiv mus rau thaj chaw tsis zoo. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev pab cuam ntshuam qis (-0.49%) rau GDP tuaj yeem yog ib feem sawv cev rau kev nruj ntawm cov khoom muag uas ua rau txo qis hauv kev txiav txim txawv teb chaws.

Hauv Q2, Kev Siv Tus Kheej Tus Kheej (PCE) nce ntawm anemic 1.0%, uas yog qhov ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg tsim cai lij choj uas kev noj hauv tsev yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam.

Yog nws zoo li kev txom nyem...?

Cov neeg koom ua lag luam feem ntau xav txog ob peb lub hlis twg ntawm kev sib cog lus kom txhais tau tias kev lag luam nyob hauv kev lag luam poob qis. Qhov no tsis yog qhov tseeb thiab tsis ua raws li qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam, uas tau txiav txim siab los ntawm 8-tus tswv cuab ntawm pab pawg neeg lag luam ntawm National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws yuav tsum tau muab sau tseg tias NBER cov lus tshaj tawm kev lag luam feem ntau tau ua ib zaug ob peb lub ntsuas ntsuas, thiab tuaj yeem muab tawm tom qab kev lag luam tawm mus qeeb.

Qhov ntawd yog hais tias, nws muaj peev xwm hais tias kev lag luam twb nyob rau hauv kev lag luam tab sis tej zaum yuav tsis raug xaiv raws li qhov no mus txog rau tom qab.

Ib qho ntawm cov cim tseem ceeb hauv kev pom zoo ntawm kev lag luam yog lub xeev ntawm kev ua lag luam ua lag luam uas cov neeg poob hauj lwm nyob ze rau keeb kwm qis.

Cov ntaub ntawv poob haujlwm tso tawm ua ntej hnub no tau pom daim ntawv thov kev tuav pov hwm tsis muaj haujlwm poob los ntawm 5,000 txog 256,000, thawj zaug poob hauv plaub lub lis piam tab sis nyob ze rau qib siab tshaj hauv yim lub hlis.

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist ntawm ADP sau ntawv tias cov ntaub ntawv ua lag luam ua haujlwm tsis sib haum. Txawm hais tias kev tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm siab thiab kev ntiav neeg ua haujlwm tau muaj zog, qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov neeg laus nrhiav haujlwm lossis ua haujlwm hauv keeb kwm tsis tshua muaj, thaum tag nrho cov neeg ua haujlwm tau poob qis rau xyoo no.

Qhov nruab nrab expansion nyob rau hauv lub Kansas Fed qhov kev soj ntsuam kev tsim khoom txhua hli tso tawm ua ntej hnub no tuaj yeem txhawb kev ua lag luam kev ua lag luam tawm tswv yim tawm tswv yim rau cov thawj coj hauv cov haujlwm no thoob plaws nruab nrab-West ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas tseem muaj kev cia siab me ntsis txog kev lag luam.

Raws li Kev Tshawb Fawb Alpha, txij li kev ua tsov rog ntiaj teb thib ob kev lag luam kev lag luam tsis tau tshaj tawm tshwj tsis yog nrog los ntawm kev poob haujlwm, thiab nrog kev loj hlob ntawm kev ua haujlwm nruab nrab ntawm 456,700 ib hlis hauv H12022, qhov no tuaj yeem cuam tshuam NBER los ntawm kev ua lag luam kev lag luam tam sim no kev lag luam poob qis. .

Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev noj zaub mov mus txuas ntxiv, nws tsuas yog ib qho teeb meem ntawm lub sijhawm kom txog thaum lub lag luam pib ua haujlwm.

Lwm qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam, 2y10y yield nkhaus tau nyob inverted rau ze li ib hlis.

Kev kwv yees lub zog ntawm cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus inversion tuaj yeem txheeb xyuas hauv daim duab hauv qab no. Cov duab ntxoov ntxoo sawv cev rau kev lag luam kev lag luam uas tau faib los ntawm NBER thiab tuaj yeem pom ua raws li sai tom qab kev hloov pauv.

Lub neej yav tom ntej tsis zoo?

Nrog rau cov khw muag khoom loj xws li Walmart txiav lawv cov txiaj ntsig kev kwv yees thaum nce kev txhawj xeeb ntawm cov khoom muag, qhov no ntawm cov tuam txhab sib npaug tuaj yeem ua pov thawj kom hnyav rau yav tom ntej GDP luam tawm.

Cov tuam txhab uas tuaj yeem rov sib npaug lawv cov khoom lag luam sai sai yuav rov qab mus rau qib kev tsim khoom sai dua thiab thaum kawg txhawb kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev txo qis thiab cov nqi ntawm kev nyob siab, qhov no yuav nyuaj rau kev coj ua.

Jason Schenker ntawm Prestige Economics tau hais tias "Peb cia siab tias 3Q thiab 4Q 2022 qhov kev loj hlob ntawm GDP yuav tau cog lus ntxiv, vim tias Fed txuas ntxiv nce tus nqi kom txo qis kev nce nqi, tab sis yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv cov txheej txheem."