(Bloomberg) - Jude Snair paub cov khw muag khoom. Nws ua haujlwm hauv chav haujlwm duab ntawm JCPenney ntawm Newport Center khw hauv New Jersey. Tab sis nrog lossis tsis muaj tus neeg ua haujlwm luv nqi, tus neeg muaj hnub nyoog 20 xyoo tau hais tias nws feem ntau zam kev yuav khoom hnub so rau xyoo no.
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"Nws tau saib ntau dua tias tib neeg xyoo no yuav tau txais cov khoom hauv tsev," Snair tau hais thaum nws sau cov ntawv teem sijhawm. Nws tau npaj txiav nws qhov khoom plig siv nyiaj ntau dua ib nrab thiab cog lus kom zam Amazon.com, nws qhov chaw tseem ceeb xyoo tas los. "Kuv puas tseem muaj nyiaj ntxiv kom tau khoom rau tib neeg?"
Nws yooj yim to taub nws cov lus ceeb toom: Qhov nyiaj nce siab tshaj plaws hauv plaub xyoos yog lashing cov neeg siv khoom thiab thawb tus nqi rau tag nrho cov khoom siv hauv lub neej, tsis hais txog cov khoom ntxiv. Cov paj laum nce siab yog ua rau kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob, thiab kev ua tsov ua rog, huab cua huab cua thiab kev nom kev tswv huab cua - tsis yog cov khoom ntawm hnub so ntsuj plig - tab tom ua rau kev lag luam tsis zoo.
Rau cov lag luam uas ua haujlwm rau cov neeg siv khoom tsis txaus ntseeg, qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias kev sib tw rau kev poob qis rau xyoo tom ntej uas twb tau hem cov hauj lwm Wall Street thiab txhawb cov lus ceeb toom ntawm kev hu xov tooj. Cov neeg siv khoom rub rov qab ua rau muaj kev hem thawj tshwj xeeb rau cov khw muag khoom hauv qhov teeb meem nyiaj txiag tob tshaj plaws. Ntau tshaj $ 21 nphom ntawm daim ntawv cog lus thiab qiv nyiaj khi rau kev lag luam kev lag luam ntawm cov kev ntxhov siab, suav nrog cov nuj nqis rau cov khw muag khoom xws li Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. thiab Party City Holdco.
Lub National Retail Federation tau kwv yees qhov kev muag khoom nce ntawm 6% mus rau 8% lub caij so no tab sis tau pom cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig qis dua rub rov qab. Qhov ntawd tau dhau los ua pov thawj hauv cov ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj tau los tsis ntev los no los ntawm qee cov khw muag khoom muaj zog dua, suav nrog Target Corp., uas lub hli tas los tau hais tias muag peb lub hlis twg ntawm cov khoom siv txiav txim siab xws li cov khoom ua si lagged thiab tias nws xav tias yuav poob qis hauv lub quarter thib plaub piv rau cov khw muag khoom. raws li tus neeg yuav khoom txo qis kev siv nyiaj.
Cov teeb meem khoom muag tau ntxiv rau kev ntxhov siab. Cov khw muag khoom tseem tab tom sim tshem tawm pawg ntawm cov khoom muag tsis tau muag tom qab kis thoob qhov kev xa khoom qeeb - nrog kev ua tiav tsawg. Qhov kev tsim kho tau ua rau cov neeg muag khoom hais qhia cov neeg muag khoom kom tsis txhob xa cov khoom muag.
Txawm li cas los xij, teeb meem nrog cov khoom muag qhia pom tias muaj kev yooj yim. Nike Inc., piv txwv li, tau hais tias thaum nws cov khoom muag rau lub quarter kawg ntawm Kaum Ib Hlis 30 tau dhia 43% los ntawm ib lub xyoo dhau los, qhov ntawd yog kev txhim kho me ntsis ntawm lub quarter dhau los qhov nce 44%. Cov thawj coj hauv tuam txhab tau hais tias tus lej tau nce siab los ntawm qib qis qis ib xyoos dhau los thaum muaj kev cuam tshuam thoob ntiaj teb.
Tsawg Inclined
Tab sis Bloomberg Intelligence kws tshuaj ntsuam Mike Campellone tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam ntxiv yuav ua rau cov tub lag luam tsis meej pem. Nws tau hais tias "Raws li kev noj qab haus huv nyiaj txiag ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tsis muaj zog thiab cov neeg yuav khoom tau nce nqi ntau dua, cov khoom muag ntau dhau yuav ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo rau kev muag khoom thiab tau txais txiaj ntsig," nws hais.
Qee cov neeg siv khoom yuav xav tias muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua los ntawm kev qeeb qeeb. Khaub ncaws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov khaub ncaws xws li, yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom zoo-rau-muaj-tab sis-tsis xav tau cov khoom xws li tsev décor thiab khoom siv hluav taws xob uas tau txais kev cuam tshuam tshwj xeeb, Campellone tau hais. Kev muag khoom ntawm cov khoom no tau nce siab thaum lub sijhawm muaj kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, txhais tau tias txawm tias cov neeg siv khoom tsis tshua muaj kev ceev faj yuav tsis tshua nyiam siv rau lawv tam sim no.
Kaum ib hlis, ib txwm pib ntawm hnub so kev muag khoom frenzy, tau poob siab txawm tias cov khw muag khoom dangling loj luv nqi, raws li Bloomberg Intelligence tus kws tshuaj ntsuam laus Poonam Goyal thiab Abigail Gilmartin. Kev muag khoom tib lub khw - qhov ntsuas tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua tau zoo - poob 2.8% tag nrho, thiab cov khaub ncaws muag poob 6.1%. Cov khw muag khaub ncaws xav tau "Lub Kaum Ob Hlis kom nco qab," lawv hais.
Thiab yog tias cov khw muag khoom xav tau qiv nyiaj kom dhau lub sijhawm lean, nws yuav raug nqi ntau dua. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve hais tias nws yuav nyob twj ywm rau kev nruj kev tsiv ntawm kev nce nqi txawm tias tom qab nws qhov tseeb ib nrab-feem pua-tus nqi paj laum.
Campellone hais tias credit metrics ntawm ob qib high-qib thiab high-yield retailers "yuav mus ntsib kev nyuaj siab" nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tom ntej. Cov khw muag khoom lag luam twb muaj ib qho kev faib ua feem ntau ntawm cov nuj nqis ntxhov siab ntawm 13.6%, raws li S&P Global Ratings.
Xyoo tom ntej kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau tus kheej thiab tuam txhab lag luam. Cov neeg siv khoom tsawg tsawg tau thov rau kev lag luam poob rau ob xyoos dhau los tshaj li qhov xav tau raws li kev txheeb xyuas kev ua haujlwm, raws li Gregg Morin ntawm cov ntaub ntawv muab Epiq Bankruptcy.
Tapped Tawm
Los ntawm 2006-2019, muaj kev sib raug zoo ntawm tus naj npawb ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab tus nqi poob haujlwm, nws hais. Nrog kev poob haujlwm ntawm 3.7%, yuav tsum muaj txog 50,000 txog 60,000 cov ntaub ntawv poob nyiaj txhua hli, Morin tau hais. Ob xyoos dhau los, tsuas muaj li ntawm 30,000 ib hlis xwb. Xyoo tom ntej, keeb kwm zoo li yuav rov qab los, uas txhais tau hais tias ob zaug ntau tus neeg siv khoom muaj feem cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias kev poob haujlwm nce, Morin tau hais.
Xyoo no, cov ntaub ntawv ua lag luam nyob rau hauv txoj kev sib npaug, lossis poob qis dua xyoo tas los cov keeb kwm qis. Hauv xyoo 2021, kwv yees li 3,700 Tshooj 11 raug foob, qhov qis tshaj hauv tsawg kawg yog 10 xyoo, raws li Epiq Bankruptcy. Txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis xyoo no, muaj txog 3,500 tus neeg raug foob.
Tsis yog txhua tus yog pessimistic. Yog lawm, yuav muaj kev poob qis, tab sis "qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev tsaws muag yog qhov zoo dua," said Jennifer Lee, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus ntawm BMO Capital Markets, nrog rau kev ua lag luam txuas ntxiv, nce nyiaj ua haujlwm thiab txuag nyiaj.
Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev poob qis tau pom tseeb ntawm Newport Center hauv Jersey City nyob rau ib hnub yav tav su nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Lub khw tsis yog tibneeg hu tauj coob, thiab cov neeg yuav khoom uas tau tham nrog Bloomberg tau hais tias lawv tau txo qis kev siv nyiaj so koobtsheej xyoo no.
Snair, tus neeg ua haujlwm JCPenney, hais tias nws yuav ua raws li txoj cai tshiab rau xyoo tom ntej, nug nws tus kheej: "Kuv puas xav tau tag kis? Kuv tuaj yeem ua yam tsis muaj nws? Thiab kuv tuaj yeem hloov pauv dab tsi?
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