Cov neeg yuav khoom nce thiab nqis tus nce toj ntawm Willow Grove Park Mall hauv Willow Grove, Pennsylvania, Kaum Ib Hlis 14, 2020.
Cim Makela | Xov Xwm Reuters
Ua kom cov neeg yuav khoom siv lub caij so no yuav tsis yooj yim.
Lub National Retail Federation tau hais rau hnub Thursday tias nws xav tias kev muag khoom hnub so thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis thiab Lub Kaum Ob Hlis yuav nce ntawm 6% thiab 8% los ntawm xyoo tas los - ib qho kev poob qis thaum muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm kev nce nqi. Kev muag khoom kwv yees tsis suav nrog kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov neeg muag tsheb, cov chaw muag roj av thiab cov khw noj mov.
Raws li lub Cuaj Hli, kev nce nqi yog nce 8.2% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, raws li Bureau of Labor Statistics 'consumer price index. Qhov ntawd yog ze li plaub caug xyoo siab. NRF, rau nws feem, taw tes rau lub tus kheej siv tus nqi index, uas tau nce 5.1% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, raws li kev ntsuas zoo dua los cuam tshuam cov neeg siv khoom nce nqi.
Qhov kev pom zoo tuaj tom qab muaj kev sib kis tau ua rau ob xyoos ntawm kev thov tshwj xeeb thaum lub caij so khoom tseem ceeb. Xyoo 2020, kev muag khoom hnub so tau nce 8.2% los ntawm xyoo dhau los mus rau $ 777.3 billion, raws li NRF, raws li cov neeg siv khoom txaus siab rau lawv tus kheej nrog kev muab khoom plig thaum muaj kev sib kis. Xyoo tas los, hnub so muag tau nce 13.5% tshaj 2020 thiab tag nrho $ 889.3 billion.
Pawg kev lag luam qhov kev xav pom tau hais tias muaj kev nyuaj rau hnub so ua ntej rau cov khw muag khoom. Ib xyoos dhau los, cov neeg siv khoom tau mus yuav khoom ntxov thiab siv ntau dua los khaws khoom plig raws li cov khw muag khoom tau tawm tsam kom khaws cov txee thaum thauj khoom qeeb. Xyoo no, txawm li cas los xij, cov khw muag khoom loj suav nrog Walmart thiab Nike ua luam dej hauv cov khoom muag ntxiv. Thiab cov neeg tau txais kev pab tau poob qis ntawm cov khoom xws li khaub ncaws thiab khoom siv hluav taws xob thaum lawv them nyiaj ntau dua rau cov khoom noj thiab cov kev pabcuam xws li noj mov thiab mus ncig.
NRF Tus Thawj Coj Matt Shay hais rau CNBC tias cov neeg Amelikas tseem xav siv lub caij so so, tab sis tau ua kom ceev faj. Qee qhov xwm txheej, nws hais tias, lawv tau nkag mus rau hauv cov nyiaj khaws cia thiab tig mus rau lawv daim npav rho nyiaj raws li kev them nyiaj rau kev yuav khoom.
Cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig qis thiab cov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab yog nyob rau hauv qhov kev nyuaj siab tshaj plaws vim khoom noj khoom haus, lub zog thiab cov nqi vaj tsev nce siab, Shay tau hais.
Nws tau hais tias "Lawv tsom mus rau cov khoom tsim nyog," nws hais. "Qee qhov ntawd yuav cuam tshuam rau lawv qhov khoom plig thiab yuav ua li cas lawv them rau lawv lwm cov nuj nqis thaum lub caij so."
Tseem muaj ntau yam ua haujlwm hauv cov khw muag khoom nyiam, hais tias Jack Kleinhenz, NRF tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag. Cov neeg siv khoom tau tsim kev txuag nyiaj thaum muaj kev sib kis thiab kev ua lag luam muaj zog, uas tuaj yeem ua rau lawv muaj kev nyab xeeb txaus los khaws kev siv nyiaj.
Kev mus ncig yog siv nyiaj ntau dua ntawm tib neeg cov peev nyiaj, tab sis nws tau hais tias lawv yuav tuaj yeem nqa khoom noj lossis khoom plig thaum lawv mus ncig - thiab tuaj yeem caij nplooj ntoos hlav rau cov khaub ncaws tshiab, ib yam nkaus.
Cov neeg siv khoom npaj yuav siv qhov nruab nrab ntawm $ 832.84 rau khoom plig thiab hnub so xws li kho kom zoo nkauj thiab zaub mov, raws li NRF. Qhov ntawd yog kwv yees li ntawm 10 xyoo dhau los, tab sis tus nqi yuav yuav tsawg dua cov khoom vim kev nce nqi.
Kev ntiav neeg ua haujlwm yuav tsum yog me me, nrog rau cov khw muag khoom ntiav kwv yees li 450,000 txog 600,000 tus neeg ua haujlwm raws caij nyoog. Qhov ntawd tsawg dua li 669,800 tus neeg ua haujlwm raws caij nyoog hauv 2021.
Lwm cov neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam kuj muaj kwv yees lub caij so tsis muaj hnub so. Piv txwv li, lub tuam txhab pab tswv yim Bain & Co. tau kwv yees tias kev loj hlob ntau npaum li 7.5% los ntawm xyoo tas los, lossis tsuas yog 1% mus rau 3% thaum tsim kev nce nqi. AlixPartners tab tom npaj qhov nce 4% mus rau 7%, uas sawv cev rau qhov poob thaum suav nyiaj nce ntxiv.
Qhov kev kwv yees nce xyoo no yuav ua rau kev siv nyiaj ntawm $ 942.6 billion thiab $ 960.4 billion.
Qhov kev loj hlob ntawd piv nrog qhov nruab nrab 4.9% nce hauv 10 xyoo dhau los, nrog rau ob lub xyoos dhau los ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau cov txiaj ntsig ntawd.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/inflation-to-dampen-holiday-spending-retail-trade-group-forecasts.html