Kev nce nqi nce ntxiv 8.2% Lub Cuaj Hli Hauv ' Npau suav phem Scenario' Rau Fed

Tojsiab

Raws li qhov kev hem thawj ntawm kev nce nqi mus ntev ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm kev ua lag luam, cov neeg siv khoom tau nce 8.2% hauv 12 lub hlis xaus rau lub Cuaj Hli - qeeb rau peb lub hlis sib law liag, tab sis tseem nce ntau tshaj qhov xav tau hauv kev txhawj xeeb rau qhov dav. kev lag luam.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Economists tau cia siab tias tus nqi yuav nce 8.1% xyoo dhau los tom qab lawv nce 8.3% thaum Lub Yim Hli.

Tag nrho cov nqi tau nce 0.4% nyob rau ib hlis-rau-lub hlis - dhau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam ntawm 0.3% thiab nce los ntawm 0.1% thaum Lub Yim Hli, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm rau hnub Thursday.

Kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi xauj tsev, khoom noj khoom haus thiab kev kho mob tus nqi yog qhov loj tshaj plaws pab txhawb rau tag nrho spikes, uas tau offset los ntawm 4.9% poob ntawm cov nqi roj.

Kev nce nqi tseem ceeb, uas tsis suav nrog cov khoom noj khoom haus tsis zoo thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob, tau nce 0.6% nyob rau ib hlis hauv lub Cuaj Hli-ua tsis tau qeeb txij lub Yim Hli thiab tuaj zuj zus tshaj li 0.4% nce kev lag luam tau npaj; qhov ntsuas tau nce mus rau 40-xyoo siab ntawm 6.6% xyoo dhau los.

"Qhov no yog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tus npau suav phem qhov xwm txheej," Jan Szilagyi, CEO ntawm peev kev tshawb fawb tuam txhab Toggle AI, tau hais hauv email cov lus pom, ceeb toom tias qhov nce ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb qhia tias kev nce nqi tag nrho tuaj yeem nyob twj ywm vim tias kev nce nqi "nyuaj dua" los txo qis rau. kev pab tshaj nws yog rau lub zog.

Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb

Raws li keeb kwm kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv, Social Security Administration tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Thursday tias cov txiaj ntsig yuav dhia 8.7% rau 2023 - kev kho tus nqi loj tshaj plaws (COLA) txij li xyoo 1981.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Nrog rau kev nce nqi ntev ntev yuam cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab kom nce cov paj laum hnyav rau xyoo no, cov hnab ris ntawm kev lag luam tau pib raug kev txom nyem loj heev - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov vaj tsev thiab cov khw muag khoom. Kev muag tsev tshiab tau poob qis rau rau xyoo qis rau lub caij ntuj sov no, thiab S&P 500 tau poob txog 25% ntawm nws cov nqi xyoo no - thim rov qab ze li ob xyoos ntawm kev nce. Ib tug loj tus naj npawb ntawm economists txhawj xeeb Kev nce nqi ntxiv tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev lag luam ntxiv, tab sis Fed cov neeg ua haujlwm tau nyob ruaj khov hauv lawv txoj kev cog lus kom txo qis nyiaj txiag - txawm tias nws txhais tau tias muaj kev pheej hmoo rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag. Hnub Wednesday, Fed hais tias kev taug kev ntxiv yuav pab tiv thaiv "kev mob nyiaj txiag ntau dua" cuam tshuam nrog kev nce nqi siab thiab ntxiv tias tus nqi ntawm kev nqis tes ua tsawg dhau "yuav" tshaj tus nqi ntawm kev noj ntau dhau.

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Fed cov tub ceev xwm tau tshaj tawm tias yuav loj npaum li cas cov paj laum tom ntej yuav yog thaum xaus ntawm lawv lub rooj sib tham ob hnub yuav los txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2. Comerica Bank kwv yees tias Fed yuav tso cai rau lwm qhov 75-txoj kev nce qib hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, tom qab ntawd. ib nrab-point nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab ib lub quarter-point nyob rau lub Ob Hlis - tso Fed cov nyiaj lub hom phiaj ntawm ib tug "txoj cai heev" ntau ntawm 4.5% mus rau 4.75%.

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

Kev Pabcuam Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv Kom Dhia 8.7% Hauv 2023, Raws li Cov Nyiaj Se Sau Ua Ntej $ 19,865 (Forbes)

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Fed lees paub tus nqi nce siab yuav roj poob haujlwm-Tab sis ceeb toom kev nce nqi tuaj yeem ua rau 'Far Greater Economic Mob' (Forbes)